Analysis: With ACC championship hopes still alive, Pitt carries heavy expectations into final game

The chief takeaway from Pitt’s 88-81 loss to Notre Dame is the need to avoid the following cliche that now has lost its relevance. Maybe you’ve heard it already:

Before the start of the season, Pitt fans eagerly would have accepted the outcome of the first 30 games if they knew Pitt would be tied for first place in the ACC with only one to play.

Sharing first place with Miami and Virginia — opponents Pitt defeated this season on the way to a 21-9 record (14-5 in the conference) — is an impressive feat. It is a product of hard work and belief. Victory totals over the previous six seasons were 16, 8, 14, 16, 10, 11. In ACC games, it was worse: 4, 0, 3, 6, 6, 6.

Expectations changed, however, and have been building since the victory against North Carolina on Dec. 30. Players and their fans want to celebrate an ACC championship, and there was a solid belief — not just on campus, but among those across the country who watch a lot of college basketball — that this was the year for Pitt to do it.

Merely flirting with an ACC regular-season championship and, potentially, sneaking in the back door of the NCAA Tournament aren’t enough anymore. That doesn’t mean the season will be a failure if none of that happens, only an extreme disappointment.

There’s still time to finish first and carry a No. 1 seed into the ACC Tournament. If Pitt beats Miami on Saturday in Coral Gables, Fla., the Panthers will be the conference champion. The current angst will be forgotten or considered moot.

But after the loss to Notre Dame, Pitt has followed a six-game winning streak with a 2-2 record. Not devastating, but also unexpected. Among Pitt fans (some of whom are now talking NIT), dashed expectations are perceived to be worse than devastating defeats.

What made the loss at Notre Dame so troubling was Pitt appeared unable to match the Irish’s high level of intensity.

“I knew they would come out inspired and emotional,” coach Jeff Capel said.

Capel was not comparing his team’s intensity with that of the Irish, who were determined to give coach Mike Brey a proper send-off after 23 seasons. Capel didn’t seem to have any problem with his team’s preparedness and energy, and senior point guard Nelly Cummings saw nothing strange occur on the court.

“Every game we’ve been playing recently has been pretty emotional,” Cummings said. “There have been different types of challenges. This game was no different.”

Capel pointed out that he liked his team’s fight. Pitt scored 40 points in the final 11 minutes, an incredible pace, proving the players remained engaged in the face of trouble. Perhaps Notre Dame’s players were tired at the end — no starter played fewer than 32 minutes — but Pitt still scored at least 80 points for the 12th time this season.

Which brings up the topic of foul shooting, an area of the game some coaches like to call “free points.” Pitt turned down too many.

Pitt hit 77.1% of its foul shots in the first 29 games before making barely more than half (20 of 36) against the Irish.

Let’s not single out poor foul-shooting for the seven-point defeat, however. If Pitt had made eight more free throws, Notre Dame might have played the second half differently.

“There were a lot of things we didn’t do well,” said Capel, who will emphasize defense in practices prior to Saturday’s Miami game.

But it was a shocking display of foul-shooting by a veteran team. Three seniors playing their final games at Pitt — Jamarius Burton, Nike Sibande and Cummings — missed one of every three attempts (8 of 24). The fourth senior, Greg Elliott, never got to the line.

Elliott is Pitt’s best 3-point shooter (41.7%), but he only tried two and missed both. There have been fan suggestions that Capel should replace Elliott in the starting lineup with Sibande, who scored 19 points Wednesday. But the rhythm of Pitt’s offense works best with Elliott starting and Sibande coming off the bench. Does Capel want to mess with success with only one game left in the regular season?

This final stretch won’t be easy, but Capel sees the situation as any good coach would.

“I don’t look at it as adversity,” he said. “I look at it as an opportunity.”