Analytical look at new QBs suggests Steelers may be getting into an NBA approach to NFL offense

This month, the Sports and Exhibition Authority of Pittsburgh and Allegheny County sent out a survey asking recent patrons of PPG Paints Arena if they would be interested in an NBA team (and/or a WNBA team) coming to Pittsburgh.

I haven’t heard the results of the survey yet. But based on a statistical breakdown done by the NFL analytics specialists at Sharp Football Analysis, the Steelers are advancing the cause through their acquisition of a pair of quarterbacks with an NBA-style approach to passing.

Try to hit 3-pointers and layups, and let the mid-range game be damned.

The Celtics and Bucks just played an entire game with 2 total free throws pic.twitter.com/TYsEFJn0Wh

— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) April 10, 2024

That was the characterization from Sharp’s staff of new Steelers Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. In the website’s recent look at the Steelers’ upcoming draft needs, the analysts attempted to tackle how the club’s offense may attempt to operate with Wilson and Fields as the quarterbacks under new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith.

“We have spent a lot of time suggesting that a team should ‘let Russ Cook,’ but no matter the coordinator, every offense with Wilson ends up looking the same due to his playstyle,” Sharp’s staff wrote. “Wilson wants to extend plays and push the ball downfield by nature. He is a big game hunter, which current NFL defensive approaches across the league have calibrated to prevent. He lives by the mantra of shooting a 3-pointer or taking a layup.”

Based on the numbers they provided, that assessment makes a lot of sense.

• Since he entered the NFL in 2012 with the Seattle Seahawks, Wilson has thrown the football on the intermediate level (10-19 yards downfield) just 17.0% of the time, which is 44th in the league.

• His 14.9% deep-throw rate is the third highest in the league, trailing only a one-year sample from Tennessee’s Will Levis (22.4%) and Fields (15.1%).

• Last year, Wilson threw the ball at or behind the line of scrimmage on 30.2% of his throws (second in the league) and deep on 14.5% (third). No quarterback in the league threw the ball at the intermediate level at a lower rate (11.0%) than Wilson did.

• Fields ranks ahead of only Wilson in throws to the intermediate area (13.5%) and second in deep throw rate (14.6%). He threw the ball at or behind the line of scrimmage on 25.4% of his passes, which was seventh in the league.

In other words, expect the Steelers’ passing heatmap to look a lot like Alabama’s NBA-style approach in the recently concluded NCAA Basketball Tournament.

Alabama is headed to its first Final Four in program history...and an important reason why: Oats' emphasis on +EV shot selection.

Through tonight, the Tide have attempted just two total mid-range jumpers in four tournament games (17' to 3PT).

Only 87 of Alabama's 1,250+ 2FGAs… pic.twitter.com/TF4Vs15yTh

— Andrew Weatherman (@andreweatherman) March 31, 2024

Is all of this sounding painfully familiar to anyone else? Maybe #ShortOfTheSticks isn’t leaving town with Matt Canada after all. If we factor in Wilson’s reputation for not working the middle of the field and spinning into traffic (100 sacks the past two years), maybe we can just expect to see every Steelers offensive game plan since Ben Roethlisberger blew out his elbow thrown together in one stew for 2024.

A lot of that data sure lends itself to the assessment we got from Ian Furness of KJR Radio a few weeks ago when he said there was always a disconnected “Checkdown Charlie element” to Wilson’s game in Seattle, even though he was such a renowned deep ball thrower.

As for that trend of taking sacks, it may be an even bigger issue for Fields.

“What hurt Fields was his development as a passer and failure to get away from negative plays,” the Sharp website said. “Since entering the NFL, Fields has taken a league-high 135 sacks. A league-high 28.3% of his pressures have resulted in sacks while the NFL average over that span is 20.0%.”

A lot of that issue translates to Fields’ propensity to hold onto the ball too long.

“Over the past three seasons, Fields has averaged a league-high 3.02 seconds per time to release the football while a league-low 34.1% of his throws in the NFL have come out before 2.5 seconds,” Sharp’s staff researched. “In a way, the greatest strength for Fields also contributes to his largest weakness. Over the past three seasons, Fields is 35th in the NFL in expected points lost on sacks, interceptions and fumbles out of 38 quarterbacks. One of the players below him is Wilson.”

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This is where, in theory, one would hope that Smith would step in and preemptively address these trends. However, as Sharp’s staff points out, Wilson tends to play the same way regardless of who is calling plays.

Furthermore, it’s not like Smith is coming to Pittsburgh with a history of having a refined passing approach during his three years as a head coach in Atlanta.

“Over the past three seasons under Smith, Atlanta had one of the least dynamic offenses in the NFL,” Sharp Analytics continued. “The Falcons ranked 30th in the NFL in dropback rate (55.1%) over those seasons. They ranked dead last in the NFL in rate of passing plays in 11 personnel (one back, one tight end, three receivers) at 30.1%. The league average over that span was 70.8%. The next closest team to them was at 47.4%.”

To be fair, though, Smith did have a better track record during his time as offensive coordinator in Tennessee, even though he was working with a marginal quarterback in Ryan Tannehill.

So, what does all this mean in terms of the draft?

It means the Steelers better select (or trade for) a dynamic receiver in the first three rounds who is adept at getting so wide-open in the middle of the field that Wilson and Fields have no choice but to get him the ball. Or, he better be as adept as George Pickens is outside the numbers.

It means finding a tackle and a center who can pass block at an elite level if these two QBs hold onto the ball forever in hopes of hitting all those deep shots. Brendan Donahue of Sharp Football has the Steelers selecting Amarius Mims (OT, Georgia) with the 20th-overall pick in his most recent 2024 NFL Mock Draft. Mock draft expert Ryan McCrystal believes the Steelers could target an offensive tackle like Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State).

As a trickle down, tight end Pat Freiermuth had better make the most out of the rare opportunities he gets over the middle of the field, and the running backs had better be ready to run after the catch on some of those check-downs.

It also means that the postgame talk show hosts better be prepared for a lot of familiar complaints even though there are plenty of new names to complain about.

So, anyway, when do the Celtics come to town?