Analysis: Pirates starters will need more help with big tests coming

Sure, the Pirates’ Sunday afternoon 3-2 loss at home to the Giants was disappointing.

Especially when you consider how it happened.

This is how the Giants clinched their second win of the trip. Nice recovery by Duggar and throw by Panik: pic.twitter.com/gFWOZNm1Tg

— Alex Pavlovic (@PavlovicNBCS) April 21, 2019

But the National League Central Division-leading Pirates (12-7) had a good week. They won five games in a row prior to that defeat. And they did it the way they’ve been doing it all season: with low scores and excellent starting pitching.

The Pirates haven’t allowed more than three runs since a 10-0 loss on April 8 against the Cubs. The Pirates’ 3.11 runs allowed per game is the best in the National League and the second best in MLB behind Tampa Bay (2.90).

The 48 earned runs allowed by Pirates pitching is, by far, the best number in MLB. The Rays have allowed the second fewest with 64.

However, some of those numbers have been built up against some pretty weak offensive competition of late. The Pirates are coming off five consecutive games against Detroit and San Francisco. The Tigers (3.05 runs per game) and Giants (2.91 runs per game) are two of the least proficient scoring clubs in baseball.

Only the Marlins (2.72) score at a lower rate than those two.

The Pirates have won their last three series against the Giants, Tigers and Nationals. They’ve done so averaging a pedestrian 3.62 runs while going 6-2.

That’s slightly better than their season average of 3.58 runs per game, which is well below the league average of 4.61 entering Sunday’s games.

Keep those statistics in mind when you consider how good those Pirates starting pitchers have been. Also note that their starting-pitcher ERA of 2.11 is tops in the National League, but the bullpen has six blown saves.

So 12-7 could be even better if the starters got more support from their hitters, their bullpen and their defense. The gloves are 25th out of 30 teams with a .978 fielding percentage.

That challenge gets more significant for the starting staff this week, though. The Pirates host the Diamondbacks Monday through Thursday. Then they visit the Dodgers Friday through Sunday.

Arizona (11-11, 3^rd in the NL West) leads MLB in doubles (53). The team’s batting average (.265) is just behind the Braves (.266) for tops in the National League and its slugging percentage of .462 is tied for third in the NL.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers (15-9, 1^st in the NL West) lead the NL in runs (136), hits (211), home runs (44), walks (110), slugging percentage (.489) and OPS (.847).

In other words, for as good as this pitching rotation has been, if the rest of this Pirates team doesn’t pick up the pace quickly to help support the starters, this could be a very long week.

Joe Musgrove pitches Game 1 against Arizona, followed by Trevor Williams, Jordan Lyles and James Taillon against the Diamondbacks. Chris Archer starts the Dodgers series.