LAS VEGAS — Given the numerous upsets that led to last year’s unusual Final Four and the many bids stolen in this season’s conference tournaments, bettors aren’t inclined to go chalk when laying wagers for the NCAA Tournament.
“People are loving some (under)dogs,” BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said. “We’ve taken all this money on some long shots to win these conference tournaments. Lots of people like taking a flier on some of these double-digit seeds.”
As recent history has shown, some of those fliers can turn into big money.
Saint Peter’s made the Sweet 16 two years ago as a No. 15 seed. Last year’s Final Four included a very un-blue-blooded San Diego State, Florida Atlantic and Miami.
The madness this year came to March before the NCAA Tournament, with underdogs sweeping through conference tourneys and taking bids from teams that otherwise would’ve been in line to make the Big Dance. Only 11 of the 32 conference tournaments ended with the No. 1 seed as champion.
“I think the (NCAA transfer) portal is helping a lot of these mid-major teams,” Magee said. “There are a lot of players at power programs that want to play more, and they’re willing to go to some smaller teams just to play. I think people are starting to see the gap is kind of starting to shrink a little bit between a lot of these really good mid-majors and maybe a bit overrated power-conference teams.”
Six Mountain West teams made the tournament, but the NCAA selection committee did the conference little favor in the seedings.
Aside from San Diego State, which was fifth, Mountain West teams were put in tough spots. Boise State and Colorado State will compete in the First Four. New Mexico would not have made the field if it hadn’t won the conference tournament.
“You can’t argue the committee hated the Mountain West this year,” Magee said. “But the seeding with some of them, it was almost like, ‘Hey, go prove it.’ Utah State winning the Mountain West regular season and getting an eight-seed, nuts. New Mexico getting an 11-seed, being on the same line as Duquesne, is a whole story altogether.”
Sheldon Jacobson, who operates the site BracketOdds, said the committee did a good job putting together the top four seed lines, but struggled after that.
“There were a lot of teams that seemed to be spread all over the place, either under-seeded or over-seeded,” Jacobson said. “(Tenth-seeded) Nevada, people expected to go much higher. Florida Atlantic got a late seed (No. 8), and that was a head-scratcher.”
Jacobson said to keep an eye on those seeded 11th and 12th.
“If you look at the five-line and the six-line, there are some mid-majors in there,” he said. “As a result, it’s going to create a lot of matchups that you would not have expected. Often, the tournament is filled with power conferences versus mid-major games. We’re seeing mid-major versus mid-major way across the board this time.”
