Biggest issues as Pittsburgh sports return: Can Steelers defense recreate 2019 dominance?

Two of Pittsburgh’s pro sports teams are on their way back to competition after the coronavirus-induced lockdown. The Pirates open their season on Friday in St. Louis. The Penguins are supposed to face the Philadelphia Flyers in the Eastern Conference hub city of Toronto on July 28.

That’s also when the Steelers are supposed to start training camp — if the NFL can pull off such a deadline as the players continue to express concerns about covid-19 testing and protocols.

It appears the NFL preseason isn’t going to happen. But what about the regular season? If it does, odds are the Steelers will need another monster performance from their defense if they are to make the playoffs for the first time since 2017.

In Wednesday’s edition of our series examining issues surrounding the potential return of Pittsburgh sports, we look at the Steelers defense and if it can replicate its success from 2019.

The accomplishments of the Steelers defense in 2019 were significant. The unit’s 38 takeaways and 54 sacks led the NFL.

It allowed the third-fewest pass yards per game (194.6), third-fewest rush yards per carry (3.8), and fifth-fewest total yards allowed (304.1). It was tied for fifth-fewest defensive points allowed per game (18.9).

So if we are to ask if coordinator Keith Butler’s players can put forth numbers such as those again, three things leap to mind.

1. It’s going to be hard.

2. They shouldn’t have to.

3. They better do it anyway.

Let’s take each response one by one.

As far as simulating those defensive totals and rankings, some seem repeatable.

For instance, in terms of sacks, the club had 52 in 2018 and 56 in 2017 and has averaged 49.6 over a five-year span. With T.J. Watt, Bud Dupree and Cameron Heyward all back — as well as a potentially healthy Stephon Tuitt, counting on that kind of production in the pass-rush department doesn’t feel like too extreme of an ask.

Similarly, since 2015, that average points allowed from the defense of 18.9 per game is the best mark of any year in that five-year window. But less than a field goal better per contest than the 20.4 points per game average of the four previous seasons.

As far as yards per game, Pittsburgh finished fifth in that category in 2017, sixth in 2018, and fifth again last year.

So those numbers lend some belief that a reasonable facsimile on defense could be counted on again in those categories in 2020, especially since Tuitt will be returning while Javon Hargrave and Mark Baron are the only two significant subtractions.

However, look at the variance in takeaways for the Steelers since 2014.

2019: 38

2018: 15

2017: 22

2016: 23

2015: 30

2014: 21

Even though head coach Mike Tomlin is on record as saying he thinks his defense can do even more in that area in 2020, history shows that the previous seasons’ results aren’t much of an indicator when it comes to future success.

As far as yards per carry and pass yards allowed per game, that’s more of a mixed bag. In both cases, the Steelers finished third in the rankings for 2019. In 2018, they were ninth and 10th in those departments. And then wildly all over the board for 2014-17.

Turnovers aside, where the Steelers were good on defense, there’s little reason to believe they’ll slip significantly. And — as Heyward has said — the team could improve its rush yards allowed total of 1,753, which was only 14th in the NFL.

One variable could be injuries. Aside from Tuitt being hurt for most of last year, the Steelers were remarkably healthy on the defensive side of the ball.

Another could be diminished play from aging veterans such as Heyward and Joe Haden. Steven Nelson may have just turned in what could go down as a career-best season. And Tyson Alualu is playing out of position at nose tackle to replace Javon Hargrave.

But even if those players slip, who is to say the likes Devin Bush and Terrell Edmunds won’t improve as they continue to play on their initial NFL contracts?

To our second point, though, one would hope that this defense wouldn’t need to be quite as dominant to get back into the playoffs.

Consider that the Steelers defense forced a turnover on 19% of drives last year, which was the best in football. It only allowed the other team to score on 29.9% of its drives for fourth best mark in football.

Yet those Steelers scored 289 total points in 2019. Only five teams were worse. And that total includes three defensive touchdowns and Diontae Johnson’s punt return touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals.

With Ben Roethlisberger’s return, adequate quarterback play should result in more time on the field for the Steelers’ offense, thus requiring fewer snaps for the Steelers “D.” Getting Roethlisberger back under center should result in more points on the board as a result of those turnovers, instead of just getting the ball back to inevitably have it punted away or turned right back over again.

Which brings us to our third point.

Whether it’s fair to ask the defense to recreate 2019 and whether the numbers are too lofty to achieve is a fun conversation.

However, for as good as it was in 2019, the team didn’t make the playoffs. It was just 8-8. Once the defense gets into the postseason — with Roethlisberger back under center — it’ll have to be better to navigate its way through the likes of the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs to get to the Super Bowl.

If that’s even a goal worth considering.

Which may be something we get into … say … Friday???

Thursday’s topic: Will the Penguins emerge from the crowded Eastern Conference playoff bubble?