Biggest issues as Pittsburgh sports return: How far will Penguins go in revamped playoffs?

The Penguins are taking part in the rebooted NHL playoff format.

And it’s not with the goal of soaking in Toronto’s Canadian National Exhibition and the scenery of Edmonton.

No. The goal is to win a sixth Stanley Cup. The Penguins have a good chance of doing so in 2020 now that much of the previously banged-up roster is returning healthy.

Hey, the best part about sports competition returning is the actual competition itself. So I’m hoping the Penguins can extend their stay north of the border as long as possible.

In our “Pittsburgh Sports Return to Play” series, we’ve been counting down the top-five most important storylines for the three pro sports teams as they resume action during the pandemic.

We’ve examined Josh Bell’s potential impact on the Pirates, Jake Guentzel’s return for the Penguins, and the chances of the Steelers defense replicating its stellar 2019.

Now, we’re up to No. 2: How far can the Penguins go in this year’s modified NHL playoff format?

From a gambling point of view, it’s clear that the oddsmakers are bullish on the Penguins coming out of the NHL covid-19 pause.

Take Fox Bet as an example. They’ve got the Penguins at +1400 to win the Stanley Cup. Those are by far the narrowest odds to win the title of any team currently needing to play a first-round play-in series.

The Philadelphia Flyers and St. Louis Blues are next at +1100. The Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning are co-favorites at +600.

In terms of odds, the closest “play-in” competitors to the Penguins are hub city hosts, the Toronto Maple Leafs (+3000) and Edmonton Oilers (+2200).

The Penguins are even a shorter favorite to win the Cup than the Dallas Stars (+1500), who are part of the seeding-only round-robin tournament.

In other words, the “wise guys” are thinking the way many of us in Pittsburgh are thinking — a healthy, rejuvenated Penguins team should go a long way in these expanded NHL playoff bubbles.

Or — truer to the point — they are thinking that we are thinking that way, so a lot of Pittsburgh money may come in on the Pens.

That’s even if they have a longer road to travel than the automatic qualifiers by playing the first-round elimination best-of-five against the Montreal Canadiens.

They’ll probably be right. Pittsburghers love to throw down some cheddar on the Penguins in the playoffs.

Popular gambling hang-ups like trends, injuries, chemistry and momentum are largely out the window this postseason because of the length of the break before the NHL restart.

The Penguins going 3-8 before the lockdown suddenly doesn’t matter. Neither do lingering health issues surrounding John Marino, Brian Dumoulin and Jake Guentzel.

And we’ll see about Sidney Crosby, who at least skated before the team had drills on Wednesday.

Mike Sullivan acknowledges Sidney Crosby skated before practice and declines further comment.

— Seth Rorabaugh (@SethRorabaugh) July 22, 2020

For most teams in the jam-packed Eastern Conference, you should just make your pick based on which team you think has the best chance to win. Don’t overcomplicate things this year. Just pick who you think is best.

Especially since there is a reseeded bracketing format, after the still-to-be-determined round-robin standings. Therefore, playing a forecasted matchup guessing game with yourself is senseless.

Granted, there are a few things working against the Penguins.

• Other teams have returning injured players, too.

• As the fifth seed, if chalk holds in the first two rounds, the Pens will get the toughest remaining survivor of the bracket in the conference semifinals and finals.

• And the Penguins weren’t good against the four better seeds in the East. Mike Sullivan’s group was 2-1 versus Philadelphia. They were 1-2 against the Bruins and Washington Capitals. And they were 0-2-1 against the Lightning. The squad was outscored 42-34 in the process.

But there’s no reason to think that the current healthy incarnation of the Penguins can’t win a best-of-seven series against any of the four teams seeded higher than they are. That’s particularly true if you thought this team was a Cup contender at the outset of the season.

Well, unless you have bought into the sudden belief that the Penguins goaltending is shaky or if Crosby’s health is more questionable than we know.

I am not going down either path.

I like the Penguins to win their first-round series, then beat whoever the fourth seed is out of the round robin. I’d love that chance if Crosby is healthy and Philadelphia is the opponent.

From there, it’s throwing darts blind with two of the remaining three round-robin studs (Boston/Washington/Tampa).

But pencil me in for an Eastern Conference Final for the Penguins, before the team runs out of gas.

And even if a sixth Cup doesn’t come this season, an extended trip such as that one after four months with no hockey is fine by me.

Friday’s topic: How much will Ben Roethlisberger’s return influence the Steelers 2020 season?