Biggest issues as Pittsburgh sports return: Will Jake Guentzel's comeback get Penguins another Stanley Cup?

Our long wait for the return of Pittsburgh’s professional sports scene is hopefully coming to an end.

The Pirates are playing warmup games. Their regular-season debut is slated for Friday in St. Louis.

The Penguins’ first exhibition game is July 28 against the Philadelphia Flyers. That’s also the day the Steelers are supposed to report for training camp.

We hope.

This week at “Breakfast With Benz,” we are tackling five issues — one per day between now and Friday — that are the most important to each of the three local franchises.

Not coronavirus-related return-to-play debates. Actual competitive sports-related matters.

Yesterday we started with Josh Bell and which version of the All-Star slugger the Pirates would get.

Today we look at Pittsburgh Penguins star forward Jake Guentzel. Is his return from injury the biggest “X factor” towards a deep playoff run for the franchise?

Who woulda thunk? A scenario where the Penguins start the playoffs with last year’s team goal-scoring leader Jake Guentzel.

When Guentzel went down on Dec. 30, 2019, it was pretty clear his season would be “put on pause” for a long time with a shoulder injury.

That was in pre-coronavirus terms. Now we know what being “put on pause” really means.

His crash into the boards after scoring a goal during a 5-2 win over the Ottawa Senators was so severe, initial reports were that Guentzel likely may not return until at least the Stanley Cup Final — if the Penguins survived that long.

If at all.

Now, in hockey’s rebooted postseason bubble format, the Penguins could theoretically max out at 33 games.

And Guentzel has the potential to be at every one of them. Since he had 43 points in 39 games, that could be a huge plus for a Penguins lineup that was so rarely intact thanks to a rash of injuries before the covid-19 stoppage.

“He’s such a consistent player,” defenseman Brian Dumoulin said over the weekend. “He’s such a calming presence on the ice. He can slow the play down. He can speed it up. He can score on the rush, in front of the net. He’s a well-rounded hockey player. His hockey sense is off the charts. The guy knows where to be and put the puck.”

No doubt, for all those reasons, Guentzel’s return is massive. Especially when you consider that he led the Penguins in goal scoring during both the 2017 and 2018 postseasons. He totaled 23 goals (42 points) during those 37 playoff games.

And according to captain Sidney Crosby, once Guentzel began skating in practices, he resembled the guy who was on a hot streak before getting injured, having tallied seven points in the four games prior to his spill into the end boards against the Senators.

“He’s looked really good in the skates. Comfortable. Strong,” Crosby said at the outset of training camp. “For somebody who had as much of a layoff as he did, he’s done a heck of a job rehabbing and making sure he is ready to go.”

The Penguins were a team that was averaging 3.48 goals per game in the 39 games before Guentzel’s injury. They averaged 2.93 in the 30 games after his injury.

For his part, Guentzel seems to be fresh and energized to be back practicing and playing with his teammates.

“It feels great,” Guentzel said after Saturday’s scrimmage. “It’s been a while. You just get so excited for even intrasquad games. It definitely feels good to get into a game-like situation. And I can’t wait to get going.”

So the answer to that initial question to open this column is: “Yes. Absolutely. Guentzel’s return is the biggest X factor towards a deep Penguins’ playoff run.”

Well, at least it was. Before we found out Crosby was battling some sort of ailment that has been keeping him out of practices this week.

And before we found out that, by many accounts, goaltender Matt Murray has been struggling to find his game in scrimmages and practices.

Let’s be optimistic on both fronts for a moment, though. Let’s say Crosby starts the playoffs on time and the goaltending from Murray (or Tristan Jarry) will be at least what we saw in the regular season before the shutdown.

Then I envision the Penguins beating Montreal in the best-of-five play-in round, and winning their first best-of-seven playoff series — especially if it’s against the Flyers. After that, it’s a coin flip, but I see the Penguins winning a third series as well to at least get to the Eastern Conference final.

And I wouldn’t have felt good making that prediction in this current format in place if Guentzel wasn’t able to skate.

Wednesday’s topic: Can the Steelers defense be dominant again in 2020?