Pirates GM Ben Cherington said they plan to take the best player available, so why did you project them to pick Oregon State shortstop Aiva Arquette in the MLB.com mock draft?

I do think that they tend to take who they think the best player is. It could very well be that it’s the best college hitter, Aiva Arquette. I don’t think that’s only because he’s perceived to be a guy who can get there faster. I think there’s some high school hitters that they’re considering. They’re looking at Eli Willits and Billy Carlson. You could ask, why would they take a shortstop when they just took Konnor Griffin? You don’t worry about that because you just don’t know how players are going to develop. They took Konnor Griffin not 100% sure that he could stay at shortstop forever, and now he’s proven to be a much better shortstop than they anticipated. They can take Aiva Arquette, who can move quickly. Maybe he’s even in Double-A at some point with Konnor Griffin next year, and he moves to third or second or you move Griffin back to center field. You worry about that when you absolutely have to, but up-the-middle premium position players, if that’s the best guy on the board, you take him and you don’t worry about who you have in your system or who you just took.”

How many of the high school shortstop prospects project as major league shortstops?

Billy Carlson, I had a longtime area scout in Southern California say he’s the best defensive shortstop he’s ever scouted. He’s going to play shortstop forever, but there’s questions about the hit tool. Eli Willits could definitely play shortstop, but he’s also run around in center field. He’s got a super high baseball IQ. The MLB bloodlines certainly do not hurt. He’s very young. He’s only 17. He reclassified, so that checks off some boxes. Switch hitter. He can play shortstop, but if you needed him to, he could play center field. Team USA ran him out there, and he looked really good, though that was just pure instincts. Arquette can play short. You give him every opportunity to play shortstop, until you say, ‘Konnor Griffin is better.’ (Arquette) played second base at Washington as a sophomore. He definitely could slide over to second base. Maybe he plays third. That might depend on who you have at the big-league level. He’s got the arm for the left side of the infield. He played a better shortstop this spring than people thought. It’s a good offensive package wherever you put him. I haven’t heard JoJo Parker’s name too much (with the Pirates). He’s not as quick, so he might move to second or third in future. Again, really good offensive profile. He tends to be a plus hitter with above-average power.

There’s a lot of good college pitchers, but are the Pirates positioned to take an elite prep arm in righty Seth Hernandez?

I love Seth Hernandez. My last mock, I don’t have him there anymore. That doesn’t mean that’s going to happen. I have the Mariners taking him at No. 3. If he doesn’t go three, then six is the next really feasible landing spot. There is certainly a chance that the Pirates will have sort of a similar decision to last year, in that here is best-available high school player. This kid’s the best high school pitcher. He might be the best all-around pitcher in the class. We have Kade Anderson ranked ahead of him but only by one spot. He’s more advanced than your typical high school pitcher, so he could move relatively quickly. It’s really interesting. I had this long-time executive tell me — and it took me by surprise because if you’re 19 years old as a high schooler, a lot of teams won’t even consider you because you’d get bounced from their models — but this guy told me that’s an advantage because he presents more like college pitcher but with really, really good power stuff. He’s not a guy who fills up the zone and is at 92-93. He’s up to 98-99, holds his velocity. He can spin two breaking balls. He’s got the best changeup of any pitcher in class, high school or college. You don’t see that from a high schooler. This isn’t a guy who’s going to take four years. Health is always the question, but that’s true of the college arms, too. That would be really intriguing to me. Even if you look at Pirates system and say, ‘Well, they’ve done such a good job with pitching and they need some hitters who actually produce,’ but if Seth Hernandez is there, I would love to be a fly on the wall for that conversation.

Does Auburn’s Ike Irish fit the need for a position player?

“He can really hit. There are people who think he might be the best all-around college hitter in the class. I’m not sure where he plays. He’s caught. He’s played in the outfield. He doesn’t run really well. Maybe just put him at first base. He can really hit. If they’re taking a college bat, Aiva Arquette makes more sense. The thing that makes Irish interesting and why his name has been mentioned all over the place — there were rumors the Angels could cut a deal at No. 2 — is because there’s a rule that if you go to the combine and have your medical done, you’re guaranteed at least 75% of what the bonus slot is. You’ll save money, but it’s not that much savings, so you’re not going to really reach for a guy if he’s gone to the combine. What makes Irish more interesting is he did not go to combine, so he’s not beholden to that rule, so you could conceivably sign him for whatever he’s willing to sign for.

If the Pirates take a college lefty, is Florida State’s Jamie Arnold their best bet?

“He’s super advanced, with a really great track record of success and a virtually unhittable slider. Lower arm slot, kind of Chris Sale-like. He’s nothing like Chris Sale because he’s not that big, but it makes it a little more uncomfortable, misses a ton of bats. Fastball touches 97. He hasn’t thrown changeup that much because the fastball-slider combination is so good, but he’s got a feel for it. Little blip this year where he wasn’t as effective, but that’s why I would say he slid. This is a guy a lot of people thought would be in contention to be No. 1 overall pick, and he’s not in that conversation, really. But he’s done what he did at Florida State for two years. I don’t think it would take him very long to get to the big leagues.

How would you assess how the Pirates have fared with their five previous top-10 picks?

You have to give them an incomplete. Listen, you probably could talk to Ben Cherington right now. What Konnor Griffin is doing is very, very exciting, but it doesn’t matter until he’s helping win games in the big leagues. So you don’t want to sort of say they nailed that one. I was excited that they took him. We all thought Konnor Griffin had the best all-around set of raw tools in last year’s class. The question was, is he going to hit? So far, he’s making them look very, very, very smart.

Skenes, obviously, they got that one right. I had a feeling that that’s who they were taking all along. But there were very active conversations about Skenes versus Dylan Crews, not just with the Pirates but in general in the industry. Some people said, ‘I’d take the guy who plays every day instead of one who pitches every fifth day.’ They got that one right.

Henry Davis has certainly not been a No. 1 overall pick type of performer to date. Then again, he wasn’t really necessarily thought of as the top guy in that draft class, but it was a muddled group, which is why they went in that direction. When you look at the 2021 draft, you can’t just look at Henry Davis because of Bubba Chandler. He’s establishing himself as a solid big leaguer now. But even if Anthony Solometo and Lonnie White Jr. never make it, you can probably argue that it was still worthwhile if Bubba Chandler ends up being as good as it looks like he’s going to be.

Nick Gonzales, if he can stay healthy, is a decent big league hitter. Carmen Mlodzinski is going to settle into being a solid relief pitcher. That was a weird draft. I don’t know how to evaluate the 2020 draft.

Termarr Johnson is still super young. I’m not ready to give up on him. He’s 20 years old and in Double-A. There’s some underlying things that are still positive. This is the positive side of the coin. The negative side of the coin is that Henry Davis is just now looking like he belongs as big leaguer. What is he exactly? He’s almost the opposite of what he looked like. He looked like an offensive-minded guy who can maybe catch. Now he’s a good major league catcher, and you hope the bat catches up. If Henry Davis is a pretty decent starting catcher and Bubba Chandler is a good No. 2 or 3 starter, then that’s a good top of the draft. In ’22, I think Termarr is going to be just fine. He may end up being a better big leaguer than he was a prospect. In ’23, who cares other than Skenes? If nobody else from that class makes it, does it matter? You have to make sure you get the No. 1 pick right.

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