The opposing coaches are likely future Hall of Famers, and the “brand” recognition of Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots conjures up memories of classic matchups. The Steelers are wearing special uniforms and the organization is calling for a “blackout” for this primetime national showcase.
Just don’t expect all that much excitement Thursday, at least if the professional oddsmakers know what they’re talking about.
The over-under for Thursday night’s Steelers-Patriots game has dipped as low as 30 points. According to the New York Post, there has not been an NFL game with a betting total (points scored by both teams) that low in three decades. On Dec. 12, 1993, the Patriots and Cincinnati Bengals had an over-under of 30.
It went under — way under. New England won, 7-2, when then-coach Bill Parcells called for an intentional safety with 19 seconds left.
Those teams entered with identical 1-11 records. The 2023 Patriots aren’t quite that bad — but they’re close. New England is 2-10 and has lost five consecutive. Worse, they have lost their past three despite not giving up more than 10 points in any of those games, the first NFL team since pre-World War II to suffer that indignity.
Over their past three games in losses to the Indianapolis Colts (10-6), New York Giants (10-7) and Los Angeles Chargers (6-0), New England has been outscored 26-13.
For perspective, only four of the 15 single games this week have an over-under of less than 39 — the number of points scored by both teams in the past games the Patriots have played.
For the season, the Patriots are last in the league in scoring at 12.3 points per game. The Steelers, though, aren’t much better. They rank fifth-worst in the NFL at 16.0 points per game.
Four of their past eight games have not eclipsed the 30-point mark (both teams combined).
But the low total for Patriots-Steelers isn’t just attributable to putrid offense. Consider that both teams rank among the top half of the NFL in scoring defense. Another factor is that Thursday night games when both teams are on four days rest have tended to be low-scoring affairs.
Still, the combination of factors has left those who know numbers best to predict that Thursday’s game at Acrisure Stadium might be one of the NFL’s lowest scoring in years.
Oddly enough, it has company. The Browns-Jacksonville Jaguars game also had an over-under at 30.5 Wednesday.
According to the AP (which cites data from Sportradar), a final total of 30.5 would represent the lowest number for an NFL game over the past 15 seasons. Both a New Orleans Saints-Cleveland Browns 2022 meeting and a Browns-Steelers 2009 game had final over-unders set at 32.5.
That Steelers-Browns game, played on a Thursday night in December, featured a wind chill at minus-6 and a 1-11 Browns team.
It went under, the Browns prevailing 13-6.
Fans showing up Thursday better enjoy the Steelers’ black “color rush” uniforms, because they probably won’t get to see too much scoring.
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