Drew Allar’s NFL future comes into focus after Penn State's CFP win over Boise State

Before the ball dropped and the East Coast rang in 2025, football fans across the country were glued to what was happening at the Fiesta Bowl. More specifically, neutrals saw what Penn State supporters have witnessed all year: the highs and lows of Drew Allar.

They saw the elite arm talent. They saw the precision. They saw Allar get into a rhythm, fire darts into tight windows, air it out and put it where only his receiver could get it. They saw moments of greatness in Penn State ‘s College Football Playoff win over Boise State.

But everyone also watched Allar wobble a bit in the face of pressure. They saw poor decisions and missed throws. They saw a quarterback with upside and room to grow.

Allar proved two things to be true in Penn State’s 31-14 victory over Boise State. The second-year starter has what it takes to be the top quarterback in the 2026 NFL Draft. But he also made the right choice in announcing his intention to return for the 2025 season.

Emphasis on “intention,” by the way. A couple weeks ago, news broke that Allar expects to return to Penn State. He addressed it at a news conference. James Franklin addressed it, too. But the language in Allar’s official statement was far from concrete.

Then, on New Year’s Eve, while Allar was carving up Boise State early, Dane Brugler, one of the most knowledgeable and well-sourced draft experts in the business, posted the following on social media:

“There are several NFL GMs who believe Allar could enter the 2025 NFL Draft with a strong playoff run. Teams are still heavily scouting him for the 2025 class.”

That shouldn’t come as a massive surprise. The 2025 draft class is weak at quarterback. Right now, it’s Miami’s Cam Ward, Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders and a lot of uncertainty. Reading the tea leaves entering the CFP, the possibility existed that if Penn State went on a national title run — and if Allar was a driving force behind it — he might change his intentions.

On Tuesday night, that thought crossed some people’s minds. He was playing that well on Penn State’s first two drives of the CFP quarterfinal against Boise State.

Allar’s first touchdown pass to Tyler Warren in the corner of the end zone was perfectly placed for the star tight end to toe-tap his way for a score. Allar’s second touchdown pass was a beautiful deep ball to Omari Evans: a 50-yard shot just behind Boise State’s coverage but just in front of the back of the end zone.

Allar began the game 10 of 13 for 144 yards. Those two touchdowns were big-time NFL throws. He had others that surely impressed the scouts Brugler mentioned.

But after that blazing start, Allar cooled. He attempted 12 more passes, and nine fell incomplete. Some of that was on the play-calling, dialing up deep shots against a beleaguered Boise secondary. There was a drop or two in there. But Allar was responsible, too.

Two instances, in particular, stood out. Allar took a deep shot to Evans in double coverage. Evans should have been called for offensive pass interference after pushing a Boise defender to avoid an interception. Later, Allar sailed a pass to a wide-open Warren that would have gone for a big gain when the Nittany Lions, leading only 17-7, could have used it.

During Allar’s run of incompletions, Penn State fans grew frustrated that offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki wasn’t calling more running plays. But Allar also missed a couple openings through the air that he should have hit.

There’s no question Allar has been far better this year than he was as a first-year starter. And in this draft class, there would be NFL teams willing to take him in the first round. But is he ready for the NFL?

“Drew has been phenomenal,” Franklin said after Allar’s intentions to return became public. “He’s doing a ton of really good things and developing and he’s getting better and he’s playing great and he’s leading. And there’s a lot of excitement because I think they believe and we believe there’s still a lot of room for growth and development. And we want to be a part of that.”

In light of Allar’s decision, Brugler told PennLive that “always made the most sense.” He mentioned Allar’s footwork. He mentioned his accuracy against pressure. He mentioned how he tends to lock onto targets. But Brugler also said there’s “no doubt” that Allar — who “clearly has tools and clearly has talent” — could be the No. 1 QB in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Maybe he will. Or maybe Allar will star against Notre Dame or Georgia in the CFP semifinals, secure a spot in the title game, lead Penn State to its third national championship and — with his stock soaring — opt to leave Happy Valley for the NFL earlier than expected. Either of those options are possibilities, and Allar’s path will crystallize over the next few weeks.

But for now, it’s fair to recognize there’s a reason why Allar announced his intentions to return. He has the potential to be the QB1 of an NFL Draft class. But he’s an unfinished product.