First Call: Game-by-game odds of Steelers going 16-0, how Steelers can qualify for playoffs this week

Wednesday’s “First Call” gives us game-by-game odds of the Pittsburgh Steelers going 16-0.

There’s a long-shot way the Steelers can clinch a playoff spot this weekend.

And we get a look at some plans to handle the Baltimore Ravens rush attack.

What it will take?

ESPN.com did a deep statistical dive on the 10-0 Steelers. It’s a lot of what you have been reading the past three weeks: A ton of advanced stats telling you why you should be skeptical of the Steelers’ undefeated start.

At least skeptical to the point you shouldn’t buy into the notion of them going 16-0 or assume their 10-0 record is a precursor to them winning a seventh Vince Lombardi Trophy.

Writer Aaron Schatz said that ESPN’s FPI index has the Steelers third behind the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The site says, “Pittsburgh has escaped a lot of close games. Based simply on points scored and allowed, we would project the Steelers to be 8-2 rather than 10-0. Five of their wins have come by a touchdown or less, including wins over lesser teams such as Denver and Dallas.

And that’s the second reason why advanced metrics don’t put the Steelers first: schedule strength. Seven of Pittsburgh’s first 10 wins have come over teams with losing records. Six of those teams are ranked 25th or lower in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) right now.”

As far as their projections to go unbeaten? Football Outsiders has Pittsburgh finishing the season 16-0 in only 15.7% of simulations. Yet, the odds of them winning each individual game on their schedule are pretty good.

Week 12 vs. Baltimore: 68%

Week 13 vs. Washington: 84%

Week 14 at Buffalo: 59%

Week 15 at Cincinnati: 88%

Week 16 vs. Indianapolis: 66%

Week 17 at Cleveland: 71%

The site rated all 14 teams that have been 10-0 since 1985 and had the Steelers 10th. Oh well, I guess they shouldn’t bother playing the rest of the way then. ESPN’s stat geeks have spoken.

Butz’s bet

Even though the Ravens won’t have running backs Mark Ingram or J.K. Dobbins at their disposal, Steelers defensive coordinator Keith Butler isn’t expecting Baltimore’s rush offense to change very much.

“They might change some things, but we will see,” Butler said Tuesday. “The best guy with the ball in his hand is No. 8 (quarterback Lamar Jackson). Whoever they have back there will be good enough, I guarantee it, to run the ball. They do a great job of running the ball and moving around a little bit. Those guys being out, I don’t know how much it will affect them.”

Here’s what the Ravens stats looked like back in Week 8 when they played against the Steelers.

J.K. Dobbins: 15 carries/ 113 yards/ 7.5 avg

Gus Edwards: 16 carries/ 87 yards/ 5.4 avg/ 1 TD

Lamar Jackson: 16 carries/ 65 yards/ 4.1 avg

Ingram didn’t play due to injury.

Edwards had 21 carries for 130 yards in Week 17 last year when neither Ingram nor Jackson played as the Ravens had home-field advantage locked up. And Dobbins was still at Ohio State.

In the Week 5 matchup between the teams last year, Jackson had 70 yards rushing. Edwards had 17 on five carries. And Ingram went for 44 on 19 carries.

Playoff bound?

Steelers fans are dreaming big right now. Of an unbeaten regular season — and beyond.

But first thing’s first. Get to the playoffs. That can happen this week, starting with a win over the Baltimore Ravens on Thanksgiving night.

Via NFL.com, “With a win, (the Steelers) could be on their way to the postseason.

Including a win against the Ravens, the Steelers would also need a Las Vegas Raiders loss or tie and a Miami Dolphins loss or tie. Both can’t end in a tie though.”

The Dolphins visit the 0-10 New York Jets. And the Raiders are in Atlanta to take on the 3-7 Falcons. So that scenario is a long shot.

But, hey, five more weeks to go.

Signing Saad

The Colorado Avalanche traded for Pittsburgh native Brandon Saad this offseason.

Now then, will they keep him? Or will he become a free agent after 2021?

Here’s what NBC Sports is suggesting.

“Unless (Saad) has some sort of monster season where he just absolutely lights up the stat sheet, I cannot see a way that his next contract tops his current $6 million salary cap hit. You could maybe make an argument for matching it, or perhaps coming close to it, but anything above $6 million per year seems a lot and probably out of Colorado’s spending range given what else they have to do. … If the Avalanche can get his price in the $5-$5.5 million range it might be doable, especially if they let some other players go elsewhere on the roster.”

Because of his local ties, Saad constantly seems to be on the radar of Penguins fans as a potential acquisition. Or if he isn’t extended by the Avalanche, Saad could become a free agent after the season at a reduced rate or a trade candidate at this year’s deadline.

Or there could be no NHL season at all … and what are we even talking about?