First Call: Odds on Cam Newton to Steelers? Stats hint Chase Claypool can help. Myles Garret staying in Cleveland.

Tuesday’s “First Call” looks at how Chase Claypool may best help the Steelers. Why many gamblers seem to think Cam Newton is coming to Pittsburgh. And so much for those Myles Garrett trade rumors.

So how can rookie wide receiver Chase Claypool specifically help the Steelers in 2020?

Well, after surfing through some of Pro Football Focus’ occasionally dense and unwieldy numbers, here’s a bit of a clue.

On Friday, PFF posted a story that focused on the AFC North, and all four of its first-round starting quarterbacks — Ben Roethlisberger (PIT), Joe Burrow (CIN), Lamar Jackson (BAL) and Baker Mayfield (CLE).

One angle the site points out is how poor the Steelers were offensively without “Big Ben” at the helm last season with a league-low -0.211 EPA per play and a last-ranked team offense grade of 60.0.

“EPA” means “the expected number of points the offense should expect to score on the next scoring play given the down, distance and field position.”

Where Roethlisberger may come in is impacting that “expected number per play” stat.

He’ll be a skilled, experienced quarterback taking what is there to be had — and more — on a regular basis. In 2019, what Steelers fans came to “expect” on most offensive plays was stagnation with Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges under center.

Where Claypool comes in may be on plays that are “unexpectedly” successful after the snap.

Followers to the site may have seen PFF prop up Claypool’s 57.7% contested catch rate during his three seasons at Notre Dame.

What does that mean exactly? Well, to translate on the NFL level, it’s pretty good.

That means on plays where the defender has a legitimate chance to break up the play, Claypool’s success rate would be one of the best in the NFL.

Granted, that’s applying success from a career against college defensive backs to an NFL metric. But take a look at the top NFL receivers in that statistic since 2017.

1. Stefon Diggs - 61%

2. Michael Thomas - 60%

3. Chris Godwin - 59%

3. Allen Robinson - 59%

5. Kenny Golladay - 58%

6. Marvin Jones Jr. - 56%

So that would put Claypool fifth overall in the NFL.

The site also grades him at 94.3 on deep passes, which would boost that average. That was 10th in this year’s class, renowned for being extremely deep at WR. It would’ve been just out of the top 5 a year ago.

Elsewhere in First Call…

• Those Myles Garrett trade rumors you may have read yesterday were apparently fake.

Thanks again, 2020! Your shenanigans never get old.

If you missed it, a fairly random report that the Cleveland Browns were considering trading their defensive superstar to Seattle sprouted legs. But it appears to be bogus.

You’re still on notice, Mason!

• Speaking of rumor and innuendo that you may enjoy, longtime NFL writer Gary Myers posted a story that Tom Brady left New England for Tampa — in part — because he had a “deteriorating relationship” with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.

Brady later denied it, calling McDaniels a “brother for life.”

• If the Jameis Winston-to-Pittsburgh talk wasn’t enough for you, how about Cam Newton?

Bleacher Report found this on the DraftKings sports book. The New England Patriots are the favorite to sign Carolina free agent quarterback Cam Newton. Right behind them? The Pittsburgh Steelers.

Where will Cam go? pic.twitter.com/rBSHmwmwgv

— br_betting (@br_betting) May 12, 2020

Those odds are likely more set around what “could happen” if Roethlisberger gets hurt than what is actually being discussed.

But don’t rain on our speculation parade!

• NFL MVP odds are out, too. Here’s what they look like at Caesars’ sports book.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the favorite at 4-1. Lamar Jackson is next at 13-2. He won it last year.

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is next at 9-1, followed by Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson at 12-1, and Tom Brady at 16-1.