Following 4-0 start, Pirates see needle move on win total expectations, division crown chances

Following the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Easter Sunday victory the Miami Marlins in extra innings, manager Derek Shelton offered a fitting assessment of how his club just pulled off a four-game sweep to open the season.

“The thing that stands out to me is that we have 26 guys on our roster and all 26 in a four-game series did something to help us win,” he said on the SportsNet Pittsburgh postgame show. “I think that’s really important.”

Even with only a small fraction’s worth of games played, the Pirates are seeing the needle move, however slightly, with regards to outside expectations of what they can do in 2024.

From young players, such as rookie starter Jared Jones; to the bullpen, which pulled its weight in Miami to the tune of 20 ⅓ innings over four games; to Ke’Bryan Hayes, who’s following up a hot end to 2023 by hitting .444 early on; the Pirates have found contributions from up and down the 26-man roster.

Of course, probably no one more so than Shelton and the returning Pirates from last year recognize that there’s a lot of baseball still to be played at this extremely early juncture of the season.

After all, the Pirates are a year removed from being on top of the world at the end of April, boasting a 20-9 record before nose diving over the next few months and ultimately finishing 76-86.

However, racking up four wins in quick succession to begin the year shouldn’t be seen as insignificant, even if it constitutes only 2.5% of the regular season’s 162 games.

For Pirates fans who set the bar for this year’s club at playing .500 baseball, these early results bring cause for optimism.

As the season got underway, Vegas Insider projected the Pirates at 73.5 wins.

After Sunday, Fangraphs now estimates a 2024 win total at 80.4.

But how about higher aspirations for the Pirates, say their first division crown since 1992?

Vegas would advise hitting the brakes on that proposition, as the Pirates are currently listed at +1000 odds to win the NL Central.

That said, the Pirates’ divisional competition, per Fangraphs, are largely in the same ballpark when it comes to updated projected wins through the first handful of games.

St. Louis is first with 81.8, followed by Milwaukee with 81.7. The Chicago Cubs are projected at 81.1 wins while the Cincinnati Reds are at 79.8.

Looking at the probability of winning the division, the Cardinals are the favorite (24.0%), followed by the Brewers (23.0%), Cubs (20.4%), Pirates (17.6%) and Reds (15.0%).

Fangraphs lists probability of the Pirates reaching the postseason at 29.9%.

It’s way too early to tell definitively, but with the state of the NL Central this year, thoughts of 1997 come into the picture, when the Houston Astros captured the division title with only 84 wins.

The “Freak Show” Pirates finished five games back with 79 wins.

It certainly hasn’t all been positive for the Pirates.

Starter Bailey Falter, whose lackluster performance (0-2, 7.88 ERA) in spring raised some eyebrows when he earned a rotation spot to begin the regular season, did not perform well in his first start Sunday.

Unlike many of their teammates who are crushing the baseball, like Hayes, Oneil Cruz (.357), Edward Olivares (.333), Bryan Reynolds (.316), Michael A. Taylor (.385) and Connor Joe (.316), catcher Henry Davis (.167) and outfielder Jack Suwinski (.143) haven’t quite found their swings just yet.

On Monday afternoon, the Pirates start a three-game series at the Washington Nationals.

The last time the Pirates started a season 5-0 was 1983.

That year’s Pirates club went on to finish 84-78 and missed the playoffs.