Football Footnotes: Sorting through variables to predict 'good on good' Steelers-Chargers matchup

A lot of Pittsburgh Steelers fans and media members looked at the team’s current three-game stretch between Cincinnati Bengals contests as a real measuring stick.

Especially after that gut-punch of a loss in Cincy on “Thursday Night Football” last month.

At that point, the Packers, Colts and Chargers were all in playoff position within the AFC bracket. They still are.

Many folks, myself included, viewed this three-pack of games as a mini-season between divisional showdowns to wrap up the first half of the year.

I heard a lot of different predictions. From 0-3 to 3-…

OK. I didn’t hear any 3-0 predictions. Not after that defensive debacle against Joe Flacco and company.

But I also didn’t hear a lot of prognosticators say 2-1 with a win over AFC-leading Indianapolis (7-2) and in Los Angeles versus the Chargers (6-3).

That’ll be the case, though, if the Steelers (5-3) can pull off a win in L.A. on Sunday night.

Should that happen, it’d be hard to look at the Steelers’ results with a jaundiced eye through the halfway point of the season. They’d be able to boast wins over division leaders in Indy and New England, as well as the Chargers.

And two of their three losses would have also occurred against first-place clubs from Seattle and Green Bay in the NFC.

“We always try (in practice) to do good on good,” cornerback Joey Porter Jr. said. “The fact that it’s a good opponent shows our skills and how much we can bring to the table. It’s a good matchup. We are all excited for it. We are all ready for it.”

Granted, the Steelers’ erratic defensive performances have made them a mystery this year. For different reasons, the same can be said for the Chargers. They boast wins over the likes of Kansas City and Denver, but have also suffered ugly losses to the likes of the New York Giants and Washington Commanders — not to mention a last-minute 29-27 victory over the rancid Miami Dolphins.

There are plenty of variables for both teams that need to be examined before picking a winner in this one. So let’s try to do that right now in this Friday’s “Football Footnotes.”

• The biggest question mark for Los Angeles coach Jim Harbaugh will be how to get around all of the injuries along his team’s patchwork offensive line. Already dealing with the preseason loss of Rashawn Slater at one tackle, the Chargers are now down Joe Alt as well. He’s done for the year with an ankle injury.

Replacement tackle Bobby Hart was also injured Sunday in Tennessee, leaving the game with a groin injury and an ankle injury. Guard Mekhi Becton has been limited with a knee injury in practice this week too. Trevor Penning was an emergency acquisition at the deadline from New Orleans.

L.A. is 5-1 with Alt, 1-2 without him. The Chargers have allowed 29 sacks. Only five teams in the NFL have allowed more.

The Steelers’ pass rush has 27 sacks, tied for third-most in the NFL. In theory, the front seven should dominate. But we thought they’d do the same thing against the Bengals, and they only had two sacks as the immobile Joe Flacco dropped back 49 times.

If the Steelers’ front-seven does what it is supposed to do, a lot of other points of analysis for this game will become moot.

“It’s called Blitzburgh for a reason,” linebacker Nick Herbig said. “Whether it’s the best offensive line or the worst offensive line, it starts with us up front. We take responsibility for that.”

• Whatever version of Justin Herbert the Steelers face will play a huge role in the outcome too. As Mike Tomlin said Tuesday, the Steelers didn’t get the real Herbert last year. He was hampered by a leg injury and couldn’t run. When the Steelers faced him in 2021, he ran for 90 yards on nine carries.

Last time healthy Herbert played the Steelers he became the only qb with 350+ pass yards and 90+ rush yards in the game we gonna need that same type of performance pic.twitter.com/fgFgTlli8I

— ChargersBoltUp⚡️⚡️⚡️ (@exoticchiefer0) November 4, 2025

“He’s an elite quarterback not just because of his arm but because he can run as well,” Alex Highsmith said. “We’ve got to be disciplined in our rush lanes. His escapability is real.”

This year, Herbert has 305 rushing yards to lead all QBs. He’s also second in passing yards (2,390) to Indy’s Daniel Jones (2,404). He’s second to Matt Stafford (21) in touchdown passes with 18.

That said, Herbert is third in sacks with 28, and his interception total of eight is tied for second most in the league.

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• How Herbert spreads it around the passing tree will be interesting as well. Quentin Johnston led the team in receiving yards each of the first four weeks. Since then, it’s been Keenan Allen once, and twice apiece for Ladd McConkey and Oronde Gadsden.

The emergence of Gadsden at tight end has really been an interesting story in recent outings. After totaling eight catches for 76 yards through the first five weeks, Gadsden has had 24 catches for 377 yards and two touchdowns over the past four games.

The Syracuse rookie is now at 14.2 yards per reception, third-most among NFL tight ends.

“A converted receiver from college, he has the ability to go outside, go inside. He has a bigger route tree than maybe a lot of tight ends because he has a receiver background,” defensive coordinator Teryl Austin said Thursday. “He’s been good for them. You see that they can really stretch the field with him. So it is, it’ll provide a challenge.”

According to my Fox Sports Pittsburgh 970 co-host Matt Williamson, Gadsden’s route share in each of those last four games is 77%, 79%, 91% and 85%. He has been the Chargers’ overall leader in route share for two straight games.

After 164 yards and a TD last week, rookie Oronde Gadsden is back in the end zone for the @Chargers!

MINvsLAC on Prime Video
Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/RAZCq5UpeZ

— NFL (@NFL) October 24, 2025

The Steelers were shredded by Green Bay’s Tucker Kraft (143 yards, two touchdowns) two weeks ago, and New England’s Hunter Henry (90 yards, two touchdowns) earlier in the season. However, they were much better against Indianapolis rookie TE Tyler Warren last week, yielding just five catches for 26 yards.

• When the Steelers have the ball, a variance has been their run game. In some games recently, the Steelers have looked like a team that should be running more but abandon it. In others, they look like a team that tries and can’t get it done.

The Steelers are third from the bottom in rush yards per game at only 87.3, and they are 28th in average yards per rush (3.8). It’s been hard for the Steelers to maintain possession of the ball as a result.

Where that could manifest this week is in how many plays the Chargers get to run and how long they are allowed to stay on the field in an effort to get it right, even if that offensive line struggles initially.

Just know that the Chargers are second in the NFL in time of possession at 33 minutes, 9 seconds per game. The Steelers are 30th at 27:35.

By extension, the Chargers run the second-most plays per game (65.7). The Steelers run the second fewest (55.6). Los Angeles’ opponents don’t snap the ball much at all — just 55.6 times per game. Meanwhile, the Steelers’ defense sees 69.1 snaps per game, the most in the league.

That’s how and why the Steelers’ defense often gets tired. It allows 11.9 points per game in the fourth quarter, worst in the NFL. The Chargers only yield 4.3, the fifth-fewest.

• We don’t need to get into how inconsistent the turnover aspect of the game can be for Pittsburgh. We did that already on Thursday.

I’ll just pass along one more stat that is reflective of that topic for how things may go Sunday night. Again, according to Williamson, the Steelers have a plus-50 points-off-turnovers differential against their opponents. No one in the NFL is better. The Chargers are at minus-36, 31st in the league.

I think I’ve got a slightly better handle on who the Steelers are versus who the Charges are. I think with the Steelers, it often comes down to who can most effectively exploit their noticeable flaws on both sides of the ball.

Los Angeles’ weaknesses along the offensive line limit their ability to do that. I’ll take Pittsburgh, 26-22.

LISTEN: This week’s Friday Football Show with Mike DeCourcy and Tim Benz previews Steelers-Chargers.