Football Footnotes: Striking similarities, vast differences make this Steelers-Browns game a close call

When the Cleveland Browns come to Acrisure Stadium, there’s usually a presumption that the Pittsburgh Steelers are going to have an easy day.

Well, in the regular season anyway. Let’s not talk about that 2020-21 game in the playo….

EU IA FALAR QUE A BOLA OVAL ESTAVA VOANDO E TAL...
mas.... TOUCHDOWN @Browns! #NFLBrasil #NFLnaESPN pic.twitter.com/yTkLKhGTWm

— NFL Brasil (@NFLBrasil) January 11, 2021

Great. Thanks a lot.

But in the regular season, the Browns haven’t won a game in Pittsburgh since 2003. Despite their 1-4 record, this contest is likely to be tough for the Steelers (3-1) because their offense doesn’t move the ball very well (263.5 yards, 30th in the NFL), and Cleveland’s defense is second-best in football when it comes to allowing total yards (247.8).

Those aren’t the only numbers between these two teams that have a wide gulf, or a remarkably slim margin that could make this game highly competitive and interesting. Unless otherwise noted, credit these stats to my Fox Sports Pittsburgh 970 co-host Matt Williamson.

• The Browns have the best rushing defense in the NFL at 75.6 yards per game. The Steelers are the second-worst rushing offense in the NFL at 80 yards per game.

Yet the Steelers are coming off their best rushing game of the year in Ireland after putting up 131 yards on the ground against Minnesota. Part of that total was because the team loaded up with blocking tight end Darnell Washington and an extra lineman in Spencer Anderson.

“This was settled 2,000 years ago when Alexander the Great came riding in on elephants. Kind of what it looked like,” offensive coordinator Arthur Smith said, paraphrasing George Young. “A thousand pounds over there: Troy (Fautanu), Broderick (Jones), and you add Spencer and Darnell, it’s a thousand pounds. (We) tried to knock the edge off the defense. That doesn’t mean schematically that’s the best plan of attack this week. Could be. You’ve just got to be smart.”

It’ll also be interesting to see how the Steelers distribute carries if Jalen Warren is dressed and fully healthy. He’s the No. 1 back in this offense right now. But Kenneth Gainwell just put up 99 yards and two touchdowns running behind those “elephants.”

• Speaking of Warren, the Browns allow the fewest yards passing per game to running backs (17.2). Warren is the Steelers’ second leading receiver with 142 yards. Gainwell has 65.

• For as much as the Steelers offense has struggled, it is the eighth-best in the red zone at a 69% conversion rate, via ProFootballReference. For as good as Cleveland’s defense is, it is last in the red zone, with a conversion rate of 76% allowed.

“Whether you’re really good in one area or not, you still have to evaluate. You don’t want to get stale. You don’t ever want to become like Blockbuster,” Smith said of the red zone approach coming out of the bye weekend. “What are your strengths? What do you set out (and) plan to do? How is the roster built?”

As great a kicker as Chris Boswell is, the Steelers have barely used him. He has only attempted seven field goals because the Steelers are either scoring red zone touchdowns or not even getting in his range at all.

And that’s saying something since Boswell has made one from 60 yards this year.

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• The Steelers average only 4.9 yards per play, 25th in the NFL. Cleveland is one of the few teams worse at 4.3 yards per play, 30th.

“Teams are playing cover two. When playing cover two, there’s not going to be a ton of big shots down the field. Until we get them in one high, it’s going to be precision passing and short of the sticks,” Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers said Wednesday.

If the Steelers have to keep it short in the air against the Browns, at least Rodgers has been good at it. He is averaging only 4.9 intended air yards per throw. But his 102.6 passer rating is still 10th in the league.

Via Pro.NFL.com, the Steelers are sixth in quick passing-game efficiency. The normally sound Cleveland defense is 29th against the quick-passing game.

• Both teams have good pass rushers. Both teams have shaky offensive tackle situations. The Browns are second and the Steelers are third in sack rate at 8.8% and 8.7%, respectively.

The Browns recently acquired well-traveled Cam Robinson in hopes of bettering their left tackle spot. He played a series to get acclimated in England last week, allowed no sacks or pressures, but committed two penalties. Via Cleveland.com, starter KT Leveston has allowed 13 total pressures and three sacks. Against the Vikings in London, he allowed five total pressures, one sack, and committed three penalties of his own.

Let’s see what Nick Herbig and Alex Highsmith can do with that situation while T.J. Watt is battling Jack Conklin on the other side.

“He’s earned the right to be on the field as much as we can get him on the field,” defensive coordinator Teryl Austin said of Herbig. “It’s my job to find ways to get him on there to keep him on the field with what he’s done because he’s a splash player. He’s always around the ball. He makes it miserable for offensive tackles. He’s playing well.”

Meanwhile, Broderick Jones is going to have to contend with Myles Garrett, so … um … what were we saying about short, quick throws from Rodgers?

With all that push-and-pull between the statistics, I see a lot of the matchup data points canceling each other out. There are some similar strengths and deficiencies between the teams, and some big gaps in proficiency over exploitable weaknesses on both sides.

As a result, expect a typical Steelers-Browns game in this one. It won’t be a Picasso to look at (or “a Mozart,” as Bill Cowher once said), but it’ll be oddly fascinating as so many of those matchups are.

Steelers win 21-16.

Watch: Tim Benz and Mike DeCourcy host the “Mike’s Beer Bar Friday Football Show”