I had a pretty good NFL playoffs as far as making picks. I won't say who. I won't say where. I won't say how much. But I'll just say I went 8-4.

So stick with me, kid. You'll make some money.

Here's my advice on the Patriots-Rams Super Bowl.

Take the Rams

The gambling line now has the Patriots as a 3-point favorite, according to Odds Shark. It opened in most Las Vegas casinos with the Rams as a 1.5-point favorite.

That's a pretty significant shift with no major injury coming into play. But by mid-week, The Mirage was claiming 96 percent of the money was coming in on New England. So, they had to slide the line.

I don't know why the line shifted on this game as much as it did.

OK. I do. It's the Patriots. It's Tom Brady. It's Bill Belichick. They are football's Death Star. You are afraid to bet against them. And they looked better in the AFC playoffs than some anticipated.

Yet, at the same time, before the playoffs started, most of dialogue nationally was that the NFL's two best teams would square off in a very close NFC title game when the Rams visited the Saints.

Which is what happened.

Meanwhile, in the AFC, most of the narrative was that we weren't seeing the best edition of the Patriots. However, based on how the dominoes were falling by the end of the regular season in the conference, they still could push their way through the bracket and squeeze into the Super Bowl.

Which, again, is what happened.

So why have the Pats gone from survivor by attrition to majority choice over a team that just beat the best club in football in their house?

Are people spooked off the Rams because of all the talk about "they don't deserve to be there" after to the bad non-call at the end of the NFC Championship Game?

That's fair. Also, New England was extremely impressive in its last four games.

But the Pats were a Dee Ford offsides away from not being there, either. They also got a very friendly roughing-the-passer call against Brady in that game, too, and the reversal on the Julian Edelman "thumb-punt" play.

So, I wouldn't allow Nickell Robey-Coleman vs. Tommylee Lewis to affect my gambling decisions.

I respect the Patriots legacy, but my opinion hasn't changed. I've thought for months now that the best team in the NFL would be whoever survived the NFC Championship Game.

I'll take the Rams to win. I'll play the money line. But if you want to give me the points, I'll take them.

Take the over

The over-under point total projection is 57. This is a tough putt.

On one hand, the average point total for a Brady-Belichick Super Bowl is only 50 points (400 total points over eight games). Also, only three times in eight trips have the Pats and their opponent exceeded 57 points.

On the other hand, two of those three trips have been the last two games against Atlanta and Philadelphia. In those three games — Super Bowls LII, LI and XXXVIII — the Patriots have been in contests that have exceeded 61 points.

The combined scores in New England's two playoff games this year were 68 and 69 points. The Rams' two playoff games have come in at an average of 50.5. So that means an average of 59.5 between the two clubs so far this postseason.

Pristine field conditions. Maybe a trick play or two. Good kickers. A willingness to go for two-point conversions. Maybe another overtime contest?

Play it small. But go with the over.

Goff or Brady for MVP

If you are betting on the game MVP, Brady is the obvious safe choice. Of the five Patriots' victories he has enjoyed, Brady has been the game's MVP four times.

However, if you are like me and taking the Rams, take Los Angeles quarterback Jared Goff.

The quarterback is always the smart play in this situation, even if you have to buy big to get short return.

On top of that obvious advice, keep in mind that if you are going to beat Brady, you are going to have to outperform Brady. In the three Super Bowls Brady lost, the opposing quarterback was the MVP (Nick Foles last year and Eli Manning twice).

In the games the Patriots won, Matt Ryan had a 144 quarterback rating and was on his way to becoming MVP before the 28-3 collapse. Russell Wilson had a 110 rating. Jake Delhomme had 323 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. Kurt Warner threw for 365 yards.

The coin flip

Tails never fails!

I hope this gambling advice helps. And if it doesn't, I hope you forgot where you read it.

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