For Penguins, playoff picture brightens as regular season winds down

When a Pittsburgh Penguins player takes a gaze at the NHL standings with 10 days left in the regular season, he has two choices.

He can look up, or he can look down.

Looking up means pondering the possibility of a Metropolitan Division championship. Mathematically speaking, there’s about a 1 in 5 chance the Penguins could catch the first-place Washington Capitals.

Looking down means considering a fall into one of the two wild-card spots in the Eastern Conference or failing to make the playoffs. There’s about a 1 in 7 chance of one of those things happening.

Which direction he looks probably says more about a player’s personality than it does about anything hockey related. Is he an optimist or a pessimist?

So which direction do you look, Sidney Crosby?

“Up. For sure,” Crosby said. “Especially where we’re at, you don’t want to be comfortable or try to hover and just get by. You gotta think about where you want to get to.”

The fact that looking up is even an option is a testament to the Penguins’ late-season surge. As recently as March 1, they were fifth in the division and ninth in the conference, on the outside of the playoff picture looking in.

“It’s been a crazy, up-and-down year,” winger Jake Guentzel said. “We’re right there right now. A couple key matchups coming up around the division this week, and we have to take care of our own business.”

Here’s a look at those key matchups as well as other factors that could determine where the Penguins end up when the regular season concludes a week from Saturday. Mathematical probabilities are from moneypuck.com.

Washington Capitals

Position: First, Metropolitan Division

Points: 98

Record since trade deadline: 10-3-1

Games left (5): at Carolina, at Tampa Bay, at Florida, Montreal, Islanders

Probability the Penguins finish in this spot: 19.8 percent

Three road games followed by two matchups against desperate teams make this a potentially rocky road, but the defending champs remain odds-on favorites to win the division.

Penguins

Position: Second, Metropolitan Division

Points: 95

Record since trade deadline: 10-2-3

Games left (5): Nashville, Carolina, at Detroit, Detroit, Rangers

Probability the Penguins finish in this spot: 36.4 percent

Because they close the season with three games against bottom-feeders, the Penguins are more likely to rise than fall from their current spot.

New York Islanders

Position: Third, Metropolitan Division

Points: 95

Record since trade deadline: 8-7-0

Games left (5): at Winnipeg, Buffalo, Toronto, at Florida, at Washington

Probability the Penguins finish in this spot: 27.9 percent

The Islanders have been shut out in three of their past five games, and Valtteri Filppula and Andrew Ladd are hurt. The ship is listing more than a little bit.

Carolina Hurricanes

Position: First wild card, Eastern Conference

Points: 91

Record since trade deadline: 9-4-1

Games left (6): Washington, Philadelphia, at Pittsburgh, at Toronto, New Jersey, at Philadelphia

Probability the Penguins finish in this spot: 12.6 percent

Matchups Thursday against Washington and Sunday at the Penguins will go a long way toward deciding if Carolina can move out of the wild-card neighborhood.

Montreal Canadiens

Position: Second wild card, Eastern Conference

Points: 90

Record since trade deadline: 8-6-1

Games left (5): at Columbus, at Winnipeg, Tampa Bay, at Washington, Toronto

Probability the Penguins finish in this spot: 2.9 percent

The Canadiens have found their game lately, going 4-0-1 in their past five, but their finishing schedule is brutal.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Position: Ninth, Eastern Conference

Points: 88

Record since trade deadline: 7-7-1

Games left (6): Montreal, at Nashville, at Buffalo, Boston, at Rangers, at Ottawa

Probability the Penguins finish in this spot: 0.4 percent

Trade deadline champs have stopped a slide with back-to-back shutout wins. They have an easier schedule than Montreal but can’t afford any further slip-ups.