Four Downs: Bevy of drops, in part, result of Steelers’ style of passing game

1. Dropped calls

Depending on the criteria, the Pittsburgh Steelers lead the NFL in dropped passes or are near the top of the list. And while coach Mike Tomlin is right in holding the receivers accountable, the fact is the Steelers’ scheme is in some ways contributing to the team’s bloated drop total.

Most simply, only one other team (Dallas) has attempted more passes than the Steelers. More passes means more opportunities for drops. But it’s the where so many of these passes are thrown that is helping to pad the number of drops, at least according to data from NFL Next Gen Stats.

It reports no quarterback has had more of his passes dropped this season than Ben Roethlisberger (8.6%). But Next Gen Stats also notes an inordinate number of Roethlisberger’s passes (36%) are short and in the middle of the field. That is the area on the field where, leaguewide, drops are most prevalent (a 5.7% rate). The reason why is likely because there are so many defenders in such a small space that receivers potentially have their attention on myriad factors other than catching the ball.

“They can catch the ball or they can get replaced by those who will catch it,” Tomlin said a day after the Steelers offense was beset by numerous drops in a 23-17 loss to Washington. “It’s as simple as that.” https://t.co/hFjIEMcYOn

— Tribune-ReviewSports (@TribSports) December 8, 2020

2. Set up to pass

Steelers fans are happy with their group of wide receivers, and for good reason. But a case can be made their opponent Sunday has an even better WR position group.

There is no disputing they have a more expensive one.

The Bills have more than $35 million in 2020 salary-cap dollars invested in their wide receivers. Only the Kansas City Chiefs have more. None of Buffalo’s three highest-paid receivers are homegrown: Stefon Diggs ($14.8 million cap hit) was acquired via trade, and John Brown ($9.7 million hit, but currently on injured reserve) and Cole Beasley ($7.1 million) were free-agent signings.

The Bills are making the most of their investments, though: according to Sharp Football Analysis, an NFL-most 71.13% of their passes this season are targeted to their wide receivers. Sharp Football Analysis has also calculated no team in the league has a higher rate of “positive plays” when throwing to WRs than the Bills.

The way Josh Allen and Buffalo’s offense is humming, the #Bills appear better equipped to overcome the deficiencies in their two most recent one-and-done playoff exits. https://t.co/FcB1sGNkMr

— Tribune-ReviewSports (@TribSports) December 9, 2020

3. Tough yards to get

Sharp Football also reports the Steelers have the worst conversion rates over the past two seasons (minimum 20 attempts) and in 2020 alone (minimum 12 attempts) in converting on fourth downs with 1 or 2 yards to go. The Steelers have successfully made only 42.9% (9 of 21) such tries since 2019 and 50% this season (7 of 14). They were 0 for 2 in last week’s loss to Washington.

When the Steelers have thrown on fourth-and-short, it hasn’t worked (2 for 6 each of the past two seasons). They’re a little better when a running back runs (3 for 6 this season). But only once in 21 fourth-and-1 or fourth-and-2 attempts in 2019-20 have the Steelers tried a QB sneak.

It worked.

Big stop by the @Ravens defense.@tbowser23 picks it off in the end zone!

?: #BALvsPIT on NBC
?: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/zEAdNZ2Doe pic.twitter.com/P6kc6okLKm

— NFL (@NFL) December 2, 2020

4. Nothing in the middle

That Roethlisberger is only “dinking and dunking” this season is not entirely accurate. Yes, Roethlisberger is getting rid of the ball faster than any quarterback has been measured since people started tracking such things over the past decade or so. Roethlisberger also ranks near the bottom of the league in average completed and intended air yards (how far past the line of scrimmage a receiver is when targeted).

However, according Pro Football Focus, Roethlisberger also has thrown the second-most “go route” passes this season (52). He ranks fourth in the NFL in attempted passes of at least 20 yards downfield (60).

How is it possible to reconcile the low average on Roethlisberger’s air yardage with all of his deep passes? Because he rarely throws anything intermediate. Only two quarterbacks this season have targeted receivers less in the range between 10-19 yards downfield (16%).

In other words, when Roethlisberger throws, it’s usually either a glorified screen or it’s going long.

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