Four Downs: If Steelers must win special teams to beat Chiefs, it won’t be easy

1. Something special

As a double-digit underdog, conventional wisdom suggests one of the best routes for a Pittsburgh Steelers upset of the Kansas City Chiefs in Sunday’s AFC wild-card playoff game is via an advantage on special teams.

Judging by the caliber of the Chiefs’ special-teams unit, though, don’t bet on it.

While the quality of a team’s specialists is difficult by its nature to quantify, the analytics and metrics that try to all agree that Kansas City is one of the NFL’s three best teams when kicking or punting is involved.

ESPN has the Chiefs third in “expected points added per play” for special teams, footballoutsiders.com likewise pegs the Chiefs third in “defense-adjusted value over average” and Pro Football Focus also has them third in their grading system.

For point of reference for Sunday, the Steelers’ special teams are ranked 14th by footballoutsiders.com (FO) and 25th by PFF.

FO breaks down special teams by unit — punt/kickoff return/coverage and placekicking – and the Chiefs are in the top 10 of each with one exception: kickoff return (21st). Kickoff return (the Steelers are 12th) and placekicking (field goals/extra points, which the Steelers are No. 2 in the NFL) are the only special teams areas in which the Steelers have an advantage over Kansas City.

CHIEFS 67-YARD PUNT RETURN TD ????

(via @Chiefs) pic.twitter.com/P9cgIDgpvD

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) December 13, 2020

2. Mahomes where the heart is

By just about any all-encompassing measure, Patrick Mahomes is having his “worst” NFL season. But that doesn’t mean Kansas City’s quarterback still isn’t performing like a star.

Mahomes in 2021 posted career worsts in yards per attempt (7.4), yards per completion (11.1), interceptions thrown (13), passer rating (98.5), times sacked (28) and fumbles lost (two, after coming in with zero in his career).

But that all needs to be viewed through the lens that Mahomes finished each of his first three seasons as an NFL starter either as the league’s MVP (2018) or by playing in the Super Bowl (winning it after the 2019 season and losing it last year).

To illustrate: Mahomes ranked lower among his NFL quarterback peers in 2021 in ESPN QBR and FO’s defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) by “only” placing fifth and fourth, respectively. Mahomes was No. 1 or No. 2 in each metric each of the prior three seasons.

This will be postseason start no. 9️⃣ for Patrick Mahomes, the second-most for any QB under 27 in the Super Bowl Era ???? pic.twitter.com/4GXhhbu1V6

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 13, 2022

3. Stacked against him

It should come as no surprise that opponents strategize defensively to limit Mahomes’ impact. While much is made when a good running back or rushing offense has to face “eight men in the box,” it rarely is brought up when a top quarterback has to go up against a stacked secondary.

According to PFF, Mahomes faced six “men in the box” on 79% of his dropbacks during the regular season. To provide context for how significant of a number that is, consider that it way out-paces MVP candidate quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers (57%) and Tom Brady (67%).

ESPN took it a step further to report Mahomes drops back to pass against eight-man “boxes” only 3% of the time, opposed to 11% for Rodgers and 6% for Brady. And ESPN notes this phenomenon holds true regardless of personnel usage (i.e., it’s not lent solely to that, for example, the Chiefs regularly deploy more wide receivers).

FO made note of how much facing a stacked secondary can handicap a passer. Statistically, based off expected points added, across the league it is 3 ½ times more difficult to produce on pass plays against a defense that is showing six or fewer players in the box.

There goes @LataviusM! #RavensFlock

????: #PITvsBAL on CBS
????: NFL app pic.twitter.com/JJ77PfFVuo

— NFL (@NFL) January 9, 2022

4. Run freely

As coach Mike Tomlin said last week, the Steelers have their “warts.” And perhaps none are uglier than the rush defense — particularly when it comes to “splash.”

The 24 opponent carries of 20 or more yards the Steelers allowed this season were the most in the NFL, and it wasn’t even close. No other team allowed more than 16.

Only one team (Buffalo) allowed more carries of 40-plus yards than the Steelers (three), and only one team (Houston) allowed more carries of 10-plus yards (72).

No team had a worse yards per carry against (5.0) or more first downs allowed via rushing (144). Of all carries against the Steelers this season, 28.9% gained a first down.

Kansas City ranked in the top 10 in the NFL in both rushing yards per game and per carry.

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