Four Downs: Steelers’ Devlin Hodges not ducking the deep ball

1. Deep Duck

Despite the narratives otherwise that the Pittsburgh Steelers have muzzled their “Duck,” data compiled by Pro Football Focus suggests otherwise. Of the 37 NFL quarterbacks who have attempted at least 16 passes of 20 or more yards downfield this season, just seven have thrown a higher ratio of their passes that deep.

Hodges has thrown at least 20 yards downfield 14.4% of the time — that’s more than the likes of Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes or Dak Prescott, all of whom have a reputation for throwing deep. What’s more, Hodges has been successful at it. His adjusted completion percentage (which gives quarterbacks credit for drops) of 52.9% ranks fourth among qualifying passers.

Interestingly, Hodges does not throw deep consistently week-to-week, judging by NFL Next Gen Stats. In the Week 14 win at Arizona, for example, his 4.2 average intended air yards was the fewest in NFL. But the week before in a win against Cleveland, his 10.6 average intended air yards was the second most.

Hodges’ downfall in the deep-passing stats is the five interceptions he has thrown on them; only Philip Rivers (seven) has thrown more on deep passes this season, and no one has a higher interception percentage when passing deep than “Duck.”

.@JamesWashington goes 34 yards on the throw from @DevlinHodges10! #HereWeGo

?: #BUFvsPIT on NBC
?: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app
Watch free on mobile: https://t.co/NdeLpshk54 pic.twitter.com/OYSDji0wE2

— NFL (@NFL) December 16, 2019

2. Plenty of meaning

No matter what happens Sunday, the Steelers will still be alive to some degree in the AFC playoff race. That will help extend what has been a remarkable 13 seasons under coach Mike Tomlin in which the Steelers have participated in just one game that they entered having already been eliminated from postseason contention.

Tomlin’s teams have made the playoffs in eight of his first 12 seasons; in 2009, ‘13 and ‘18, they entered their Week 17 game with a chance at a postseason berth if they won and some other things broke their way. The Steelers won all three of those finales — but did not get the requisite help to make the playoffs.

The only “meaningless” game to the Steelers over their past 13 seasons was the 2012 finale against Cleveland. The Steelers entered on a three-game losing streak and had been eliminated in a virtual winner-take-all game the week prior against Cincinnati at Heinz Field. The Steelers beat the Browns, 24-10, that day, to clinch a non-losing season, one of 16 in a row (and counting) for the franchise.

That’s 9 forced fumbles in TJ Watt’s past 14 home games.

And 12 FF in his past 26 games overall.

— Chris Adamski (@C_AdamskiTrib) December 16, 2019

3. Turn down for Watt

The Steelers’ T.J. Watt ranks among the top five in the NFL in sacks (13, fifth), tackles for loss (14, fifth), quarterback hits (31, first), forced fumbles (six, first) and fumble recoveries (three, fifth). Should that continue through the end of the season, Watt would join his brother J.J. (in 2014) and Jared Allen (‘11) as the only players over the past 12 seasons to be among the league’s top five in those categories. Watt is also the only player since 2008 to have as many of each of those statistics.

Diontae Johnson housed it on the punt ? @Juiceup__3

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/Is1mEAIh8c

— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) December 8, 2019

4. Danny Special

Quietly and after multiple seasons of criticism, the Steelers special teams have become one of the NFL’s best units. Buttressed by the deploying of Diontae Johnson as the primary punt returner and Kerrith Whyte on kicks, the return units have earned some positive attention. And Chris Boswell’s placekicking has been a plus all season.

But across the board, the Steelers have had overall strong units. While it’s difficult to quantify, footballoutsiders.com rates the Steelers as having the fourth-best special teams in the league. It has the Steelers at the best in kickoff coverage, second best in field goal/extra point kicking and second in punt returning.

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