Four Downs: Steelers feast on No. 1-overall drafted QBs, is Bengals' Joe Burrow next?

1. Wins versus No. 1s

The Pittsburgh Steelers can make it three consecutive seasons with a victory against a rookie opposing quarterback drafted No. 1 overall. They are scheduled to face Joe Burrow’s Bengals on Sunday after defeating Kyler Murray’s Cardinals last season and Baker Mayfield’s Browns in 2018.

But the Steelers had lost three of their previous four meetings when facing a given year’s No. 1 overall pick at quarterback: in 2002 to David Carr, in 1999 to Tim Couch and in 1983 to John Elway. Each of those losses, though, comes with a caveat. The loss to Couch came two months after he came on in relief of a 43-0 Steelers win. Elway was benched after going 1 for 8 with an interception in his start. Carr went 3 for 10 for 33 yards in his rookie victory. Besides these past two seasons, the only other victory the Steelers have against a rookie No. 1 overall drafted QB was against Drew Bledsoe in 1993.

Expanding the scope of the Steelers’ record against top-pick quarterbacks beyond their rookie seasons, the Steelers are 59-30-1 against the 25 quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger. The Steelers never faced four of them (although Jameis Winston still is active, and Terry Bradshaw played for them. JaMarcus Russell and Sam Bradford are the other two). Only four of the other 21 had a winning record against the Steelers: Elway (6-2), Peyton Manning (3-1), Michael Vick (2-1-1) and Troy Aikman (2-0).

The No. 1 overall picks the Steelers have beaten the most? They went 10-2 against Vinny Testaverde and 9-5 against Carson Palmer. With Mayfield and Burrow in the division, if they have long careers, those totals could be challenged.

2. A nonfactor

Much has been made of Mike Tomlin’s decision to go for it last week on a fourth-and-1 with 43 seconds to play while holding a five-point lead at the Dallas 15-yard line. A running play lost 4 yards, and the Cowboys drove the other way far enough that a potential winning pass was thrown into the end zone as time expired.

Was kicking a field goal the proper call for the Steelers? The calculations of the sports analytics firm EdjSports say, in effect, there was no bad decision. According to EdjSports data analyst Ian O’Conner, the Steelers’ had a 99.0% Game-Winning Chance (GWC) before the play. A successful field goal would have increased that to 99.1%, a missed field goal would have dropped it to 95.7% and the failed fourth down dropped them to 96.2%. A converted fourth down would have assured a Steelers’ win.

O’Connor’s model takes into account how poor the Dallas offense is. However, it does not take into account Tomlin’s stated reasoning for his decision: The Steelers were having trouble blocking the Cowboys during their placekicks.

3. Pressure cookers

The superlatives associated with the Steelers’ pass rush continue to pile up. The latest comes from NFL’s Next Gen Stats, which credits the Steelers as having the league’s top pressure rate on third down. The Steelers are within 2 yards of the opposing quarterback at his point of release (or sack) on 44.4% of third-down passing plays.

Next Gen Stats also explains the dominance of T.J. Watt this season: Buoyed by nine pressures in the second half of last week’s game at Dallas, Watt has 48 pressures in eight games (six per contest and an incredible 20.9% of plays). That is 26% more than the player who ranks second in the league, Aaron Donald (38).

4. Sure hands

Despite fumbling just twice over his first 35 career games, JuJu Smith-Schuster developed a poor reputation in that area because both of those fumbles (in late 2018 at New Orleans and early last season against Baltimore) directly cost the Steelers a game.

But those remain Smith-Schuster’s only career fumbles in four NFL seasons. And Smith-Schuster also has shown he is sure-handed by increasingly avoiding drops. After having six drops over his final five games of last season, Smith-Schuster has not dropped a pass in 2020 (according to Pro Football Focus). Smith-Schuster has been targeted with 55 throws and caught 45 passes, figures that rank 21st and 12th in the NFL among wide receivers. The only two receivers with more of either who also do not have a drop are the Chargers’ Keenan Allen and Davante Adams of the Packers.