Four Downs: Steelers proficient at forcing fumbles but can’t again depend on recovering them

Chris Adamski
Saturday, Sept. 12, 2020 6:30 a.m. | Saturday, Sept. 12, 2020 6:30 a.m.

Chaz Palla | Tribune-Review

Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers Bud Dupree forced a fumble by Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield during a game last season. Dupree had four forced fumbles in 2019, Watt had an NFL-best eight and the Steelers had more than any team (33).

1. Fumble Foibles

The Pittsburgh Steelers led the NFL in takeaways last season, and it in no small part contributed to their 8-8 record and ability to remain in the playoff race through their season finale. But can that be replicated? The law of regression to the mean suggests it won’t be easy.

Opponents fumbled just three more times last season than the Steelers did. Analytics confirms what should be common sense: recovering a fumble is a 50/50 proposition, often based on luck. And the Steelers last season were lucky on both ends of that equation: they recovered 63% of 33 opponent fumbles and 55% of 30 fumbles by their own players. In other words, what should have been a net-fumble takeaway advantage of 1½ instead was seven — and those extra 5½ possessions helped win games.

In 2020, even if the Steelers are adept at forcing fumbles — and they figure to be — they probably won’t be as fortunate in recovering them.

Bud Dupree gets home! @Steelers force the strip sack and fumble recovery. #HereWeGo #CLEvsPIT

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Watch free on mobile: https://t.co/uPnyeJSIAR pic.twitter.com/GqcCeYtXJe

— NFL (@NFL) December 1, 2019

2. ‘Forced’ entry

The good news for the Steelers is even if recoveries are largely chance, teams do have an element of control over preventing their own fumbles and forcing them from opponents. In regards to the former, the Steelers are coming off their worst such season since 2012. Steelers players had more fumbles in 2019 than they did in ‘16 and ‘17 combined. Only two teams fumbled more. Better ball security could go a long way.

But when it comes to the Steelers’ defense, forcing fumbles does not appear to be an aberration. Their 33 forced fumbles was the second-most by any NFL team over the past seven seasons (only the 2015 Washington Redskins had more with 36).

The edge-rushing duo of T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree forced more fumbles (12) than the Cincinnati Bengals roster did (11) last season.

FUMBLE ? #Steelers take over!#MIAvsPIT | #MNF

(Via @steelers)

pic.twitter.com/eS8Uz0qXpy

— PFF (@PFF) October 29, 2019

3. Forced Watt-age

Twenty-eight percent of the Steelers’ 49 forced fumbles over the past two seasons have come from Watt. His 14 forced fumbles in that span are three more than any other individual in the NFL. He was tied for the league lead with eight last season and was third in 2018 with six. Watt has seven forced fumbles over his past nine home games.

Watt’s last 14 forced fumbles have come in his past 28 games, an incredible rate. Even while factoring in Watt forced just one fumble over his first 19 NFL games, his average of five per season puts him among the all-time greats. Among the top 50 players in career forced fumbles since the statistic became official, according to pro-football-reference.com, the most forced fumbles per season is 3.8. That’s from cumulative leader Robert Mathis (54 in 14 seasons). Derrick Thomas (41 in 11 seasons) is next at 3.7 per season.

Per pro-football-reference.com, only four Steelers in recorded franchise history have more forced fumbles than Watt — and Watt is just three seasons into his career. With two more forced fumbles, he will trail only Greg Lloyd and James Harrison (who played 10 and 14 seasons with team, respectively) among any player from the past 30 years.

#Steelers’ T.J. Watt considers the art of passrushing to be an in-game “chess match.” But when it comes to forcing fumbles, he’s barely playing checkers. https://t.co/IUGtJFPwgB

— Tribune-ReviewSports (@TribSports) October 29, 2019

4. Inter-opener

The Steelers are opening against an NFC team for only the third time since they hosted the Dallas Cowboys in 1997. Games at Washington (2016) and at home against the Atlanta Falcons (2010) are the only inter-conference matchups over the Steelers’ 22 previous Week 1 games.

But the Steelers had played NFC teams six times in season openers over the 11 years leading to 1997 — three times against Dallas, twice against the San Francisco 49ers and once versus the Detroit Lions.

Four of those games were against reigning division winners and five against returning playoff teams. Monday’s game is against a New York Giants team coming off a 4-12 season.

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Chris Adamski is a TribLive reporter who has covered primarily the Pittsburgh Steelers since 2014 following two seasons on the Penn State football beat. A Western Pennsylvania native, he joined the Trib in 2012 after spending a decade covering Pittsburgh sports for other outlets. He can be reached at cadamski@triblive.com.