Friday Football Footnotes: If not for Tom Brady, how many more Super Bowl rings would Steelers have?

Every now and then, Pittsburgh Steelers fans love to put themselves through the exercise of determining how many Super Bowl trophies the franchise would have in its display case if it weren’t for Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots.

Usually that answer comes back at nine or 10.

Conservatively, of course. Maybe 11 or 12 — with a few breaks.

This hypothetical game is often played after a couple shots and a few beers at the local bar when someone brings up Spygate and Deflategate.

“Wellll, yinz know if ‘em cheatin’ Patriots ain’t used illegal cameras, and deflated ‘em footballs, we’d have had, like, five more rings, n’at!”

Sure! Next round is on me, Cuz. Um, you’re taking a cab home … right??

But, for “Friday Football Footnotes” this week, in honor of Brady’s recent re-retirement, let’s crack another cold one and have that conversation strictly about Brady. We’ll call it the “Brady Butterfly Effect.”

What if Tom Brady never came along? What if the Patriots never drafted him out of Michigan and he just languished as a career backup somewhere else? What if Drew Bledsoe never got hurt against the New York Jets on Sept. 23, 2001. What if Brady just decided to stick with baseball?

The last active professional athlete drafted by the Montreal Expos has officially retired pic.twitter.com/rZRveyeBtD

— Baseball Quotes (@BaseballQuotes1) February 1, 2023

It’s actually way too deep of a dive to completely investigate. For instance, do we simply assume that if Mo Lewis doesn’t knock out Bledsoe in that Jets game, that Belichick and Bledsoe never become perennial contenders or even occasional threats in the conference? Are we sure the Patriots essentially become the Detroit Lions of the AFC?

Do we assume no other AFC team finds Brady and turns him into something good? Does Rob Gronkowski then get drafted by another team as the Patriots use a second-round pick on some quarterback Belichick liked from Lenoir-Rhyne? When Randy Moss and Corey Dillon get cast aside, do they just stay away from AFC teams that could’ve made life more difficult on the Steelers?

Yeah. Actually. Let’s just assume all of that and make it simple on ourselves.

We’ll operate under the belief that the Patriots are just an “average Joe” team for those two decades between 2001 and 2020 and that the AFC is largely left to the Steelers, Ravens, Colts, Chiefs, Chargers and Broncos to figure out year to year.

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Let’s narrow it down even more. Let’s say nothing else in football history changes — in any season — up until the Steelers would have faced the Patriots in one of their many defining matchups over the years. And then we’ll try to determine how many more Super Bowls the Steelers would’ve won in the Kevin Colbert-Bill Cowher-Mike Tomlin era.

In the 15 games Brady played against the Steelers as a Patriot (12 regular season, three in the playoffs) he went 12-3. All three of the playoff showdowns were New England victories.

In the regular-season matchups, he was 9-3 with a touchdown to interception ratio of 29:5 for 3,744 yards and a completion percentage of 68.8. His passer rating was 111.1. The playoff games yielded five touchdowns, no interceptions, 706 yards, a completion percentage of 71.6 and a rating of 118.6.

Here are the five wins that Brady had against the Steelers that most directly impacted their chances of winning more Super Bowls.

1. The 2001 AFC Championship Game

The first one is the easiest. No, the Steelers still wouldn’t have won that game if there was no Tom Brady. How do we know this? Because for much of that game … there really was no Tom Brady.

Lethon Flowers knocked Brady out of the game before the first half was over. Troy Brown had already taken that punt return to the house. Bledsoe finished off a two-minute drive for a touchdown before halftime. The blocked field goal touchdown from Antwan Harris still happens with or without Brady at quarterback, and the Pats probably still win 24-17.

I’m not even 100% certain that the Steelers would’ve beaten the Oakland Raiders that day if Bledsoe fails to win the “Tuck Rule” game that Brady did the previous week.

I’ll take it one step further. Let’s say that Brady never came to New England and the Steelers beat Bledsoe. I still think the St. Louis Rams beat the Steelers in New Orleans for the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

Does Kordell Stewart outduel Kurt Warner? Is Jerome Bettis healthy enough by then to control the clock after nine carries for eight yards in the championship game? Does a Steelers secondary of Flowers, Brent Alexander, Chad Scott and Dewayne Washington force three Rams turnovers, including a pick-6 like the Pats did? Who is the Ty Law of that group?

Steelers fans love to play the Spygate card when attempting to minimize the Patriots success. OK. So if the Patriots couldn’t have possibly beaten the Rams’ high-powered offense without Spygate, what was the Steelers defense going to do without spying?

Verdict?: Rams 31 Steelers 17 — if the Steelers get that far in the first place.

2. The 2002 season opener

This is a weird one to tackle.

You remember the game, right? It was the first game at brand-new Gillette Stadium. A primetime, season-opening AFC Championship Game rematch after the Pats won the Super Bowl.

The Patriots were all honked off because the Steelers ran their mouths about how the wrong team allegedly won the AFC title game the year before. Brady surprised the Steelers by throwing 43 times for 294 yards and three touchdowns. Stewart threw three more interceptions, and the Steelers got smoked 30-14.

So had there been no Brady, the circumstances of that game are entirely different. To the point, it’s tough to play the “what if game” on this one. Plus, the Patriots didn’t even make the playoffs that year anyway after going 9-7. So they didn’t get in the Steelers way in the postseason.

If Stewart beats the Patriots in Week 1, is he benched for Tommy Maddox by the middle of Week 3 against the Cleveland Browns? Is Kordell’s demise more of a slow roll, and does Maddox enter the fray too late to save the season?

Or do the Steelers win Game 1 in New England and simply go 11-4-1 instead of 10-5-1? That would’ve given Cowher’s team the No. 1 seed and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.

If they win the AFC, can they beat up on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Super Bowl again like they did in the 2001 regular season with Amos Zeroue as the lead back instead of Bettis, and Maddox throwing the ball 30 times into that defense?

Verdict?: No. Too many variables on this one. With all that gray matter I just can’t assume the Steelers win the Super Bowl in 2002 without Brady in New England.

3. The 2004 AFC Championship Game

Most Pittsburghers claim that this is the most obvious year that the Steelers would’ve grabbed an additional ring without Brady and the Patriots on the table. The 15-1 Steelers definitely would’ve won the Super Bowl in Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie year.

Not so fast.

For as great as Roethlisberger was that year, he was lousy in the playoffs. We all remember the three interceptions against the Patriots in the 41-27 AFC Championship Game loss. But the Steelers only got out of the divisional round because New York Jets kicker Doug Brien missed two field goals under 50 yards in the final 2:02.

Roethlisberger threw a pick-6 during the game and another interception after the first miss by Brien, before winning 20-17 in overtime.

If Brady isn’t a Patriot, maybe Bledsoe would’ve still been. He went 9-7 with the Bills and lost to the Steelers backups in the final game of the 2004 regular season that year. Otherwise, Brady’s backup was Rohan Davey.

So in all likelihood, Peyton Manning and a 12-4 Colts team probably comes to Heinz Field that day. They lost to New England the week prior in the divisional round.

Even if you assume Roethlisberger plays better against the Colts than he did the Patriots that evening and the Steelers win, do we just assume they beat the 15-3 Philadelphia Eagles for a second time that season? This time on a neutral field?

Roethlisberger was great in the AFC playoffs the next year. But he reverted to his ‘04 playoff form in Super Bowl XL against the Seattle Seahawks, even though the Steelers managed to win.

Would Big Ben’s nerves have been as shaky in that game against Philly as they were in ‘05 against Seattle? Would it have mattered since Donovan McNabb wasn’t exactly an emotional rock in that game either, throwing three picks and getting sacked four times?

Verdict?: I’ve gone back and forth on this one, but I believe there is no championship. Even without Brady, the Steelers would’ve lost in either the AFC Championship or the Super Bowl.

4. The 2016 AFC Championship

Despite the fact this team was only 11-5, I actually think this season mapped out better for the Steelers to have won an additional Super Bowl without Brady in the mix than the 15-1 squad in ‘04-‘05 or the 13-3 club in ‘01-‘02.

Keep in mind, the Steelers lost to New England twice that season. Once in Pittsburgh, 27-17 in Week 7. Then again in Foxborough in the AFC Championship Game.

As the AFC bracket played out that year, New England was the top seed, Kansas City was second at 12-4, the Steelers were third at 11-5. The Steelers won at K.C. in the divisional round anyway. So even if all records stayed the same (except for the Patriots) and Tomlin’s Steelers went to Arrowhead for a No. 1 versus No. 2 AFC Championship Game, why would the results have been any different?

I’ll go one better. Pretend the Steelers beat the Pats that year and are 12-4 instead of 11-5.

The Steelers beat K.C. in the 2016 regular season as well. So they had the head-to-head tie-breaker for the bye and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs over the Chiefs. As a result, Le’Veon Bell wouldn’t have incurred 63 touches over two playoff games before getting to the title game. At that point, I bet he doesn’t come up lame in the first quarter, as he did against the Patriots in real life during that 36-17 defeat.

Verdict?: Yes, the Steelers do win the AFC in 2016. They go on to the Super Bowl and beat the Atlanta Falcons. Hey, if Matty Ice can melt down with a 28-3 lead to the Patriots, he could’ve done it against the Steelers too.

5. The Jesse James game in 2017

Forgetting Brady for a second, Steelers fans advance this as a “Butterfly Effect” moment more than any of those listed above — probably because we just want to justify our rage over the call itself.

Because — say it with me — “if the refs don’t screw up the Jesse James play, the Steelers get the No. 1 seed and don’t have to play the Jacksonville Jaguars in the divisional round.”

True, but it’s flawed thinking. Because then, in all likelihood, either Jacksonville or New England likely comes to Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship Game anyway, if the Steelers survive a divisional game against the Chiefs.

If James’ touchdown wasn’t overturned, I still think Brady comes to Heinz Field and wins a third title game here—because that’s what he did in ‘04-‘05 after losing at Heinz Field in the regular season. Or Jacksonville squashes the Steelers — just a week later on the calendar.

If Brady is subtracted from the equation and the Steelers are the No. 1 seed, Jacksonville would’ve been the No. 2 seed and gotten a bye.

A 9-7 Buffalo team was second place in the East that year behind New England. Even if you factor in another win or two for Buffalo with Brady out of the mix, that Jags team held them to just a field goal that year in the playoffs, during a 10-3 first-round win.

Verdict?: I don’t see a way around the Jags coming to Pittsburgh in the playoffs that year. They smacked the Steelers twice in 2017. They were just a bad matchup. So, no, the Steelers don’t win the Super Bowl that year.

There you have it. In the end, do the Steelers have at least one more championship if Tom Brady never waltzed into our lives? Yeah. They probably get at least one more ring.

More than that? Eh, you may want to stomp on a few more butterflies before making that presumption.

Veteran New England Patriots beat writer and author, Christopher Price, joins us to discuss the re-retirement of Tom Brady.

Listen: Tim Benz and Christopher Price discuss Tom Brady