Friday Football Footnotes: Steelers not in the Super Bowl? Here's how to gamble your way into a rooting interest
It’s another Super Bowl without the Steelers. The 12th in a row, unfortunately.
And a clear rooting interest doesn’t seem to exist for Pittsburgh. On one hand, the Kansas City Chiefs are fast becoming the constant goliath out of the AFC.
On the other hand, what are you going to do? Root for a Philadelphia team? Pfft! No way.
Unless you are Mayor Ed Gainey (No. I still have no idea what he was thinking.)
So I guess we are going to have to create an interest. How does one do that?
Gambling!
Hey, it’s legal in Pennsylvania now. And with a team from the opposite end of the commonwealth in the game, expect the action to be extremely heavy in the Keystone State. PlayPennsylvania.com is projecting a handle of anywhere between $65 million to $80 million. So why not get involved yourself?
Last year for the Los Angeles Rams’ 23-20 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals, if you followed the bets that I suggested here at “Breakfast With Benz,” you would’ve had a profitable day.
I placed seven bets and hit four. The biggest home run was Tee Higgins over 99.5 receiving yards. He ended up with exactly 100 at +260 odds (which meant $100 to win $260).
So if you followed the rest of my advice — including the Bengals to cover the four-point spread and the Rams to go over 3.5 sacks (they ended up with seven) — you wound up comfortably in the black.
For the season-ending “Friday Football Footnotes,” let’s see if I can help you haul in a few bucks again. Here are some bets to make for Super Bowl LVII, with all odds courtesy of BetRivers.com.
• Let’s begin with the point spread. When the line opened after the AFC and NFC Championship Games ended, the Eagles were a 1.5-point underdog. I wish I had bet on them at that point. I didn’t. The line quickly swung toward Philly. They got as high as a two-point favorite. It’s at minus-1.5 now.
That’s where I’m putting my money, at minus-110 odds (meaning wager at a rate of $110 to win $100).
It’s a tough call. I like Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts. However, I love Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes.
It’s hard to bet against who you think is the better QB. But I expect Philadelphia’s front seven to be dominant, and I think the Eagles’ secondary can contain Travis Kelce without being skewered elsewhere. Sorry, JuJu Smith-Schuster, but I do. So I’m taking the Eagles to win and cover minus-1.5.
• I stayed off the over-under point total in the game last year. But my gut told me it would stay under. It did. So I was kicking myself for leaving money on the table.
This year’s total is up to 51 total points. It has gone up since I got in at 50.5. I decided to play it at that total this year.
I went under. I’m projecting a final score of 26-22 Eagles. That’s close. But it’s still under. If the Eagles win, I think it’ll be because of defense.
Play it small. But go with the under-51.
• Since I keep harping on defense, I might as well put my money where my mouth is. I’ll take the Eagles over 2.5 sacks for the game. The odds aren’t great at minus-143, but I’ll do it anyway.
The Eagles had 78 sacks between the regular season and playoffs. The Chiefs only allowed 26 in the regular season. But Mahomes was sacked three times by the Bengals last week.
I think the Eagles will be playing from ahead. That infers that the Chiefs will have to pass to catch up in the second half. Mahomes’ sprained ankle is still healing from his injury in the divisional round.
The Rams sack bet at over 3.5 paid off for me last year. So did the Eagles going over 2.5 in the NFC Championship Game against the San Francisco 49ers. So I’m riding it again this Sunday.
• Sticking with that point, here’s what I’m doing with the MVP bet.
If the Eagles win, it could be anyone. Hurts is a co-favorite with Mahomes at +130. But it could be receivers A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith. It could be any one of their three running backs (Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott). Maybe a defensive back gets a few interceptions.
But Eagles pass rusher Haason Reddick is +3000 ($100 to win $3,000). Counting the playoffs, he has 9.5 sacks since Dec. 18. If I’m right about the defense winning the day for the Eagles, Reddick may be the biggest winner of the bunch. And he could make you one as well if that bet hits.
However, I’m also throwing a few bucks down on Mahomes to win the MVP. That’s a CYA bet. Cover your…umm…assets. Yeah, “assets.” That’s the word I was looking for.
This is just a small hedge by me just in case I’m dead wrong about the game flow. Because if the Chiefs win, I have no doubt Mahomes will be the biggest reason why. If every other Philly bet goes south, toss a few dollars at Mahomes as the MVP to mitigate the damage a touch.
• Here’s an individual prop bet that makes no sense to me at all. I saw Gainwell’s over-under rushing yards total at 18.5. The odds were minus-115. I jumped hard on that one.
Gainwell is a player on the rise. In his last three games (including playoffs), Gainwell has rushing totals of 35, 112 and 48 yards. He has 26 attempts over the two playoff games. The Bengals averaged 4.2 yards per rush against the Chiefs. The Jacksonville Jaguars averaged 7.6 per attempt in the divisional round.
This one feels like stealing to me.
• One hand may wash the other on my last bet. I believe there are yards to be gained on the ground against the Chiefs. I believe the Eagles will try to do that with their backs. I think Philly will be playing with a lead and will try to run clock. I don’t expect Hurts to have to scramble in order to pick up yards. I don’t expect him to be risked as a designated runner a lot in a game of this magnitude.
So I’ll take the under on Hurts’ rushing total. It’s up to you how risky you want to go. The under at 39.5 pays out at +163. The under at 49.5 is at minus-114.
Let your budget be your guide. But I’ll swing big on this one and go under 39.5 on the ground for Hurts. He’s been under that total three games in a row.
OK, so to summarize:
• The Eagles cover minus-1.5 (-110)
• Under 51 for the point total (-106)
• Eagles over 2.5 sacks (-143)
• Patrick Mahomes MVP (+130) and/or Haason Reddick MVP (+3000)
• Kenneth Gainwell over 18.5 yards rushing (-115)
• Jalen Hurts under 39.5 rushing yards (+163) and/or under 49.5 rushing yards (-114)
That’s eight bets. Place all of those, a few of your own and a block pool or two, and you’ll find yourself with a significant rooting interest.
Even if rooting for the Steelers isn’t possible and rooting against Philadelphia isn’t enough.
Tim Benz is a Tribune-Review staff writer. You can contact Tim at tbenz@triblive.com or via X. All tweets could be reposted. All emails are subject to publication unless specified otherwise.
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