Friday Football Footnotes: Steelers-Raiders looks like a game where numbers are telling the story

As the Pittsburgh Steelers head out to Las Vegas to play the Raiders on Sunday night, the game is one in which a lot of the numbers going into the matchup seem to tell the story.

I understand the whole “there are lies, damned lies, and statistics” belief. Frequently in sports, we drown ourselves in numbers that just wind up having no meaning or bearing on the game.

But this game seems different because a lot of the stats feel exceptionally pertinent to how this one may play out between a pair of 1-1 teams looking to make their fanbases feel better about how the rest of 2023 may go.

For “Friday Football Footnotes” this week, we examine some of those numbers and tell you why they may be meaningful for Sunday night’s outcome.

• 8: According to Pro Football Focus, that’s the number of play-action pass attempts by Kenny Pickett over the first two weeks. Justin Fields (CHI) and Zach Wilson (NYJ) are the only starters to have thrown fewer so far (seven each).

• 12.3: According to Pro Football Focus, that’s the number of yards per pass attempt when Pickett uses play action. That’s tied for second best in the NFL with Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill, behind only San Francisco’s Brock Purdy (12.9 heading into their win Thursday night).

I know the Steelers have struggled to run this season, but Matt Canada still needs to use play action more often.

• 24.8: Seconds per play run by the Steelers. The third-fastest pace in the NFL.

But this is one of those stats that is a lie. Because the Steelers are also only 27th in total number of plays run (114) and 31st in time of possession (23:34). Their two defensive touchdowns against Cleveland and that 12-play, hurry-up lone scoring drive in one minute, 25 seconds against the 49ers in the second quarter are skewing those pace-of-play stats.

• 28: The number of years since the Steelers have beaten the Raiders on the road.

That’s right. The Steelers haven’t beaten the Raiders outside of Pittsburgh since 1995.

You may think that means nothing since we are talking about ancient history and the Steelers aren’t even visiting Oakland anymore.

However, during the four times the Steelers have faced the Raiders out west since then, the games were all under similar circumstances. In 2006, ‘12, ‘13 and ‘18, a scuffling Steelers team flew out to play an equally struggling Raiders squad. All they needed was a “get right” win over a mediocre edition of the Silver and Black to get back on track toward the playoffs.

Yet, they lost all four in painful and pathetic fashion. And all four of those teams finished with eight or nine wins and missed the playoffs.

Feels like that could happen again this time around, doesn’t it?

At least this week, the Steelers are three-point underdogs. I think that’s a good thing.

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• 31%: Pittsburgh’s third-down conversion rate on offense. Only the Jaguars, Jets and Browns are worse, via Matt Williamson of the Steelers Radio Network.

However, as Williamson pointed out Wednesday on ESPN Pittsburgh, the Raiders are allowing a 50% third-down conversion rate. That ranks 27th among NFL defenses.

See where Matt is going with that one?

• 60: Percent of the crowd expected to be Steelers fans on Sunday night. That’s according to Vivid Seats’ “Fan Forecast,” which projects crowd outcomes. The matchup is “trending as the hottest NFL tickets this week, with an average ticket price of $594, and as the Raiders’ second hottest ticket in over a decade.”

• 79: Yards after catch for George Pickens this season, 11th best in the NFL. He only had 140 last year. The Raiders have allowed 231 yards after the catch this year, 24th in football.

• 85: According to NFL analytical expert Warren Sharp, that’s the percent of time the Steelers run when under center on early downs in the first half. That’s the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.

• 92: According to Sharp, that’s the percentage of time the Steelers pass if they are in shotgun on early downs in the first half. That’s the second-highest rate in the NFL.

When you complain about offensive coordinator Matt Canada being “too predictable,” this is the kind of stuff that you should be talking about.

• 106: Number of pass-blocking snaps for Raiders right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor dating back to Week 18 of last season. Since then he has allowed zero pressures.

This week he’ll square off against T.J. Watt. The Steelers star outside linebacker managed just three tackles, no sacks and one QB hit in the win over Vegas at Acrisure Stadium last year. Via Raiders scout and football data analyst Tristen Kuhn, Eluemunor yielded two pressures in that game, just one against Watt.

• 277: Rushing yards yielded by the Raiders this season, sixth worst in the NFL. If the Steelers can’t get the run game going this week, it may never happen.

• 386: Rushing yards yielded by the Steelers so far this season, worst in the NFL. But the Raiders only gain 2.6 yards per carry, second worst in the NFL this season.

If the Steelers can’t stop the run this week, it may never happen.

Listen: Tim Benz previews the Steelers-Raiders game with Marcus Mosher of Pro Football Focus and Raiders Wire.