Full Count: Painfully aware of his numbers, Mitch Keller focuses on what he can control

As much he tries to ignore them, Mitch Keller knows his numbers. The Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander is painfully aware that only two MLB pitchers have more quality starts — and that only one player has more losses.

The hard truth is that Keller won his first start of the season, on March 28 at the Miami Marlins, and hasn’t won since. The Pirates have won only three of his 14 starts.

“I think the educated baseball fan can look past the record,” Keller told TribLive, “so that doesn’t really bother me, honestly.”

What should bother Keller is how he’s not being rewarded for going deep into games. The Pirates have scored a total of 32 runs in his 14 starts but only 18 when Keller was on the mound. They were held scoreless twice, scored one run twice and two runs five times. Seven games were decided by one run, including all three wins.

“It’s tough, man,” Pirates manager Don Kelly said after a 3-2 loss to the Marlins on Tuesday, when Keller notched his 10th quality start. “He’s pitched well enough to win some ballgames. He’s done a great job … with giving us a chance to win. Unfortunately, there’s been a lot of times where we haven’t been able to come through in those instances.”

What impresses Kelly is how Keller has handled the lack of run support and positive outcomes like a pro, filling up the strike zone at a 67.5% rate and continuing to work at improving between starts. Teammates such as All-Star outfielder Bryan Reynolds say they haven’t noticed any frustration from Keller, which is a good sign.

“I don’t care who’s pitching,” Reynolds said. “It’s not like I want to score runs for this guy and not for that guy. We want to score runs for everybody. If we’re not scoring runs, we’re not winning. He’s out there deep into games for us most times he pitches. He gives us a chance, which is all you can ask.”

Keller can take some solace in how closely his numbers this season resemble those through his 14 starts the past two years:

In 2023, when he was selected an All-Star, Keller was 8-2 with a 3.41 ERA and allowed 33 earned runs, 74 hits, including nine home runs, with 101 strikeouts and 23 walks through 14 games.

Last season, Keller was 8-4 with a 3.36 ERA, 32 earned runs, 85 hits, including eight homers, with 78 strikeouts against 22 walks.

This season, Keller is 1-9 with a 4.15 ERA and has allowed 38 earned runs, 85 hits, including six homers, with 65 strikeouts against 20 walks.

“I don’t look at record and try not to look at ERA,” Keller said. “Obviously, that’s a good indicator of how the season’s going, but I mean there are other ways to evaluate outings.”

A better indicator is fielding independent pitching, which measures the quality of defense and the luck on balls in play with a formula that calculates the three true outcomes — home runs, walks and strikeouts — along with hit-by-pitches and is adjusted on an ERA scale.

Keller has a 3.32 FIP this season, better than last year (3.61) and just slightly higher than 2023 (3.24). For the sake of his own sanity, Keller looks beyond the numbers and focuses on the controllables, especially pitch quality and execution. He looks at whether he’s throwing strikes or giving up walks, whether he’s giving up hard contact on hits and how he’s faring on two-strike counts.

Opponents are batting .270 against Keller this season, including .167 against his curveball, .192 against his sweeper and .245 against his four-seamer. But they are feasting on his sinker and slider, both at a .333 clip, and his changeup (.296). Even so, they are slashing .196/.246/.286 with seven doubles, a triple and two home runs, 65 strikeouts and 11 walks with two strikes.

“With two strikes, I could probably be a little bit better, making better quality pitches,” Keller said. “I think strikeout numbers are just a little bit down but, again, I can’t help if I make my pitch and someone sticks a bat out and gets a hit or puts it in play. I can’t control that. After the ball leaves my hand, I can’t control it. That’s really where I dive in: What can I control? That’s throwing strikes and throwing pitches and controlling the run game and all the other things that I can.”

Keller can look at his Statcast page and see room for improvement, starting with increasing his 93.5-mph fastball velocity, which ranks in the 34th percentile. He also has a low whiff rate (20.1) and strikeout percentage (18.6) and a high hard-hit rate (41%). But his walk percentage (5.7) and barrel percentage (5.7) are in the red, which is why he doesn’t focus on the peripherals.

“Yeah, that’s why I try not to look too much into it,” Keller said. “I feel like I’m throwing the ball well. I feel healthy, and I feel like my stuff’s coming out, I feel like it’s getting better as the year goes on, so that’s always a positive.”

The narrative Keller wants to shift involves his second-half struggles. Despite not getting the results he wants through his first 14 starts, Keller believes he’s trending in the right direction.

“I think I can only go up from here, honestly,” Keller said. “I feel like I can be a lot better from what I’m doing right now.”