History shows Steelers can overcome long odds on final weekend to make playoffs

The New York Times website features a playoff simulator that is billed as an interactive calculator designed to allow fans to explore each NFL team’s chances of making the postseason.

The numbers don’t quite compute for the Pittsburgh Steelers, who face a 9% chance of extending their season beyond Sunday.

Another site that calculates playoff odds, fivethirtyeight.com, pegs the Steelers’ numbers even lower — at 6%.

The 8-7-1 Steelers have become the longest of long shots not just because they must defeat the 8-8 Baltimore Ravens for their first road victory since Halloween. It’s also because their inclusion requires the 2-14 Jacksonville Jaguars to upset the 9-7 Indianapolis Colts.

And then they need the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers to show integrity by not playing to a tie that also would eliminate the Steelers.

It’s not often the Steelers get the requisite outside help they need to reach the playoffs. It didn’t happen in 2019 or 2018, the two most recent times they needed it. But the Steelers have overcome some outrageous scenarios in the past 40-plus years.

Here are four times circumstances worked in their favor:

2015: Erie feeling

The Steelers didn’t do as much scoreboard watching Jan. 3, 2016, as they did get updates from the Terrible Towel-waving fans that made the trek to FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland.

To seal a wild-card berth, the 9-6 Steelers needed to beat the 3-12 Browns, and they needed the 7-8 Buffalo Bills to win at home against the 10-5 New York Jets. Both games were played in the 1 p.m. window.

“I made a best friend in the stands, and he kept me updated on every single thing that happened,” guard Ramon Foster said that day.

There was a lot transpiring on the other side of Lake Erie. While the Steelers were clinging to a 17-12 lead, the Jets had rallied from a 13-0 deficit and trimmed the Buffalo lead to 19-17.

The Steelers did their part with Ben Roethlisberger throwing a touchdown pass to Markus Wheaton, then adding a Chris Boswell field goal to finish off a 28-12 win. Ryan Fitzpatrick tried to rally the Jets to a sixth consecutive victory, but he was intercepted on his final three possessions, and Buffalo held on for a 22-17 win.

Said coach Mike Tomlin at the time: “It’s been a tough 16-week fight for us, but it’s where we want to be, where we need to be. We have an opportunity like others in the field, and we’re grateful for that.”

The Steelers won at Cincinnati for their first playoff victory since 2010 but were undermanned heading to Denver in the divisional round and dropped a 23-16 decision.

1993: Hairy predicament

Bill Cowher vowed he would shave his mustache if the Steelers beat the Cleveland Browns to conclude his second season yet failed to make the playoffs. The Steelers needed two of three teams to lose: New York Jets, Los Angeles Raiders and Miami Dolphins. The Raiders, though, played at 4 p.m., and the Jets were involved in the Sunday night game, meaning the Steelers would have to watch and wait if they took care of business at Three Rivers Stadium.

The Steelers rallied from a six-point halftime deficit for a 16-9 victory. The Dolphins lost in overtime to the New England Patriots, but the Raiders came back from a big deficit and beat the Broncos in overtime.

That left everything in the hands of the Jets and Houston Oilers in prime time. The Oilers obliged with a 24-0 shutout.

“It’s the first time I had to watch other NFL games and have something at stake,” Cowher said. “Now, I know what the average fan goes through.”

The Steelers were rewarded with a trip to Kansas City, where Cowher had served as defensive coordinator before replacing Chuck Noll in 1992. The Steelers had the Chiefs on the ropes before Joe Montana rallied Kansas City to a 27-24 overtime victory.

1989: Stranger than fiction

The ’89 season is remembered for the way it started as much as the unexpected way it ended for the Steelers.

They opened with losses to Cleveland and Cincinnati by a combined score of 92-10. But the Steelers won four of their final five games to get to 8-7. They needed to win on Christmas Eve at Tampa Bay and then get a slew of other favorable outcomes.

Bubby Brister threw two touchdown passes to Louis Lipps, and Tim Worley rushed for two scores to help the Steelers to a 31-22 win on a day when it actually snowed in Tampa. Maybe that was a sign of the unusual turn of events. The Giants beat the Raiders, and the Saints beat the Colts, putting the Steelers’ fate in the hands of the Vikings-Bengals game Monday night.

A Cincinnati loss would give the second wild-card berth in the AFC to the Steelers. The Vikings jumped to a 19-0 lead in the first half, but the Bengals clawed to within 22-21 in the fourth quarter. Wade Wilson threw a touchdown pass on fourth-and-goal from the 1 to ensure the Bengals would be watching the playoffs on TV.

“We haven’t been able to write this script,” Noll said. “I don’t think anybody would have, the way our season has gone. It’s been stranger than fiction.”

That set up a trip to Houston, which had beaten the Steelers twice that season, including 27-0 at the Astrodome. That didn’t matter to Brister.

“We want to shock the world,” he said. “We’re going for it.”

The Steelers stunned the Oilers, 26-23, on Gary Anderson’s 50-yard field goal in overtime. That sent the Steelers to Denver, where they had a six-point lead on the Broncos in the fourth quarter. But the Broncos went ahead for good on Melvin Bratton’s 1-yard touchdown run to eke out a 24-23 win.

1977: Help in Houston

The Steelers were 8-5 heading into their finale at San Diego. So were the Bengals, who needed a win at Houston to clinch the AFC Central title and send the Steelers home for the postseason for the first time since 1971.

The Bengals had won four in a row, including a 17-10 victory against the Steelers the previous week. That loss angered Steelers players because of the way the Bengals conducted themselves.

The Steelers overcame a nine-point halftime deficit and edged the Chargers, 10-9. The Bengals self-destructed in the Astrodome and dropped a 21-16 decision, sending the Steelers to the playoffs.

“If I crawled through the back door, I sure don’t feel like it,” Joe Greene said.

Greene took great satisfaction in the Bengals loss.

“They had to win another game and didn’t,” Greene said. “They were cheap, chicken (crap), they got their butts kicked. They didn’t choke.”

The Steelers took up a collection and bought leather briefcases for each Oilers player and coach. However, they couldn’t carry any momentum into the playoffs. They lost at Denver, 34-21, as the Broncos scored the final 13 points after the Steelers had tied the score in the fourth quarter.