Kevin Gorman's Take 5: Pirates optimistic about future with window to win about to open
On the final weekend of the baseball season, when most teams that missed the playoffs are exasperated and exhausted, Derek Shelton dealt with different emotions.
Overnight, the Pittsburgh Pirates manager went from frustrated over a close loss to optimistic about the future.
“You normally get to the point where you’re at Game 161 and you’re like, ‘All right, you’re tired.’ I’m not,” Shelton said. “I don’t know if I’ve ever been at the end of a season where I’m as excited for what we’re doing as I am right now.”
It wasn’t just that the Pirates (76-86) played winning baseball over the final two months of the season. It was how they did it. With staff ace Mitch Keller and closer David Bednar living up to their All-Star status and third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes and outfielder Bryan Reynolds to their long-term contracts. With patchwork pitching and timely hitting and a resiliency that allowed them to overcome a nine-run deficit to beat an NL Central rival in contention for a wild-card spot. With so many rookies playing regular roles.
And, as important, without two pivotal players who suffered season-ending injuries.
After back-to-back 100-loss seasons were followed by a 14-win improvement that included the best start (20-9) in the National League over the first month, Shelton believes the Pirates’ 29-28 post-trade deadline record was a preview of the window for winning baseball on the horizon.
“We’ve played better, and the constant theme of that is we’re playing with guys that we feel are going to be here for a good chunk of time,” Shelton said. “The difference between Double-A, Triple-A and the big leagues is the biggest it’s ever been. So, the fact that we were able to get a lot of reps or a lot of innings for our young, core guys, that’s important. Now, on the flip side of that, we’re going to have a ton of competition in spring training because this has happened, and because there’s possibilities of adding to the club. So I feel like we’re in a good spot as we continue to move forward.”
Tribune-Review Pirates beat writer Kevin Gorman takes a look at five keys to next season:
1. Long term shortstop: Pirates general manager Ben Cherington posed a question for Oneil Cruz in their season-ending exit interview: When you show up to spring training, what position are you running out to play?
Cruz answered without hesitation: Shortstop.
That’s what the Pirates wanted to hear, especially after deploying seven players at the most prominent position of the infield after Cruz fractured his left ankle on an awkward slide into home plate April 9 and required season-ending surgery. Tucupita Marcano started 44 games, Liover Peguero and Alika Williams 33 apiece and Rodolfo Castro 26.
What they collectively showed is how much the Pirates missed Cruz defensively. And the Pirates haven’t had a shortstop start 100 or more games in successive seasons since Jordy Mercer in 2017-18. So, a healthy return for Cruz is key for the Pirates.
“That’s clearly what he’s focused on. That’s where we want him focused,” Cherington said. “He knows that to train for that position and to be ready for it, he’s going to have to do those things. We believe he will and can. It’s not an easy injury he’s coming back from. Not every day will be easy, but he’s worked really hard and we think he’ll make the progress he needs to to come back and play shortstop.”
The Pirates also missed Cruz at the leadoff spot in the lineup. After hitting 17 home runs with 54 RBIs and 10 stolen bases in 87 games as a rookie, Cruz was expected to provide pop at the top of a batting order that featured Reynolds, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Santana, Hayes and Jack Suwinski. Instead, the Pirates used 12 different players.
“It made a big difference. He’s a leadoff guy that’s honestly a three-, four-hole guy,” said McCutchen, who was lost in September to a left Achilles strain. “Having him at the top of the order for those games that we played together, you were able to see what he was capable of doing. A lot of guys already knew what he could do, but the thought of him being there for a full season was super exciting. It was a really tough blow when we lost him when we did but to get him back and get a full season with him is going to be a big deal for us and for the team. He’s a guy who just does it all and can do it at a high level. That’s a big part of the success of the team.”
Cruz set lofty goals before the season. He wanted to join the 40-40 club for homers and steals. After watching Ronald Acuna Jr. become the first 40-70 player out of the leadoff spot for the Atlanta Braves, Cruz has even greater aspirations.
“I’m going to set my bar high from last year and do things I can’t even imagine right now,” Cruz said last month. “I’m going to be in a good spot mentally and physically, and it’s going to be a special year.”
2. Round out the rotation: Cherington has talked about stockpiling the starting rotation, wanting to go 10 players deep. The Pirates suffered a serious blow when JT Brubaker and top-10 prospect Mike Burrows both underwent Tommy John surgery in April.
Even so, their starters made 18 quality starts in the first 28 games. Then the Pirates were dealt another pair of setbacks. Vince Velasquez required UCL surgery in June, and Roansy Contreras struggled and was sent to the minors to rework his mechanics.
When the Pirates traded veteran left-hander Rich Hill to San Diego, their rotation was down to a pair of proven starters in Keller and Johan Oviedo, who both made 32 starts and tossed their first career shutouts.
Where Keller led the Pirates in wins (13), set a single-season franchise record for strikeouts by a right-handed pitcher (210) and had 18 quality starts, Oviedo had 14 quality starts and allowed one run or fewer in 14 games in which he pitched at least five innings.
The Pirates gave starting opportunities to rookies Osvaldo Bido, Luis Ortiz and Quinn Priester, waiver claim Andre Jackson and trade acquisition Bailey Falter, but relied late in the season on openers and bulk relief.
Adding to the starting rotation will be a top priority, whether it’s through free agency or by trading prospects or from positions of depth like outfield and middle infield.
“I think the biggest thing is we need to build as much depth as possible,” Shelton said. “As much starting pitching depth, or if you want to call it bulk depth if it’s guys internally, we need to build that group as much as possible. The guys who pitched for us in April, if they get hurt or they’re not here, that’s important. Losing JT the last week of spring training, that goes into your depth. We have to make sure that we build as much starting pitch depth protection of innings as possible.”
3. Pay the pitchers?: The Pirates spent close to $14 million in free agency on pitchers last year, signing starters Hill ($8 million) and Velasquez ($3.15 million) and lefty reliever Jarlin Garcia ($2.5 million), who didn’t pitch because of a nerve issue.
The Pirates could be limited in their spending in free agency, however, because both Bednar and Keller are projected to receive significant raises in arbitration. MLB Trade Rumors predicted that Bednar will go from making $745,000 to $4.7 million, a raise of $3.955 million, and that Keller would get bumped to $6 million, a nearly $3.6 million raise.
Where Pirates chairman Bob Nutting once was dubbed “Bottom-Line Bob,” he showed a willingness to spend the past two Aprils by giving team-record eight-year contracts to Hayes ($70 million) and Reynolds ($106.75 million). Whether the Pirates invest in Keller and Bednar could depend on what type of television deal they can secure this offseason, after the Penguins ownership group purchased their flagship, AT&T SportsNet.
Cherington didn’t do much to clarify the Pirates’ plans.
“We want the door open for that conversation with certain players who check enough boxes that we think that makes sense,” Cherington said. “Not every player, right away, is going to check enough boxes for that conversation to happen, but some will, and when they do, we want the door open to it. They’re not easy. It’s, most importantly, a personal choice, in the end, for a player, and I really respect that personal choice. It ain’t my contract, it’s theirs. We want to honor that, and our job is to give information and hope to give enough information at the right times to help guys make a choice and make an informed choice.”
The Pirates passed on moving Bednar and Keller at the trade deadline, only for both both to possibly price themselves out of future plans with strong seasons. Keller turned down what was deemed a low-ball offer in the spring. The Pirates could be banking on Bednar, a Mars alum, to give them a hometown discount, but that might be wishful thinking after he tied for the National League lead with 39 saves in 42 opportunities, despite going a month between save opportunities when the Pirates struggled in May.
If they don’t sign extensions, both pitchers could be trade candidates again next season.
4. Choices at catcher: The Pirates had a plan to allow their top two catching prospects time to develop in the minor leagues, signing defensive specialist Austin Hedges on a one-year deal to serve as a stopgap. Where Hedges excelled in calling games and framing and receiving pitches, his .180 batting average made him an offensive liability.
The Pirates signaled their future by promoting top prospect Endy Rodriguez in mid-July, and he proved to be the polar opposite of Hedges. Where Rodriguez dealt with a learning curve calling the game, he posted a 30% caught stealing rate and batted .220 with seven doubles, two triples, three homers and 13 RBIs in 57 games.
Meantime, 2021 MLB Draft No. 1 overall pick Henry Davis moved to right field, where he showed off a strong arm but also his outfield inexperience. To the Pirates, his bat mattered more. He slashed .213/.302/.351 with 10 doubles, seven homers and 24 RBIs in 62 games, catching only a couple of innings. The Pirates haven’t given up on Davis behind the plate, saying he will report to spring training with the pitchers and catchers.
“I just think we believe in both of those cases, Endy and Henry, that catcher is their primary position. It has been for their entire life, and they are young players who are just getting to the big leagues,” Cherington said. “We owe it to them, and to us, a chance to find out what it looks like at that position, and give them a chance to be major-league catchers. … We believe they can do it.”
With both Rodriguez and Davis versatile enough to play multiple positions — Rodriguez saw time at first base, as well — that leaves the battle for the backup job. Jason Delay was solid both behind and at the plate, where he batted .251/.319/.347, and became a favorite for Keller.
If anything, a position that once was one of the Pirates’ weakest now looks bright.
5. Youth movement: A dozen players made their major-league debuts last season, and many of them merited consideration for regular roles in 2024.
Shelton said Hayes, Reynolds and Suwinski — who led the Pirates with 26 homers and ranked second with 74 RBIs — have earned starting jobs, along with Keller and Bednar. If his recovery goes as planned, Cruz will start at shortstop. Beyond that, there will be competition.
The Pirates have several candidates at second base, which was manned mostly by rookies Ji Hwan Bae (56 starts), Nick Gonzales (25) and Liover Peguero (23). Both Gonzales and Peguero also played shortstop, while Bae started 33 games in center field and was a regular late-inning replacement there because of his speed.
Another rookie, Jared Triolo, started 35 games at third base, 10 at second base and six at first base, where he looked natural. Triolo impressed with his bat over the final 18 games, batting .350/.458/.567 with seven doubles, two homers and seven RBIs.
Although the rookie starting pitchers struggled at times, Ortiz and Priester proved that they can pitch six-plus innings. They just have to do it with more consistency.
Perhaps the biggest development was in the bullpen. Former first-rounder Carmen Mlodzinski converted from minor-league starter to major league high-leverage reliever in the span of a season. Lefty Jose Hernandez, a Rule 5 Draft pick, averaged 11 strikeouts per nine innings over 50 2/3 innings. Colin Selby (11.3) and Kyle Nicolas (11.8) had similar success late.
Cherington said there was a “resounding” response from rookies in the exit meetings, that they learned the difference between being top prospects and major league players and go into the offseason knowing where they need to improve.
“We didn’t have to say anything,” Cherington said. “It was very clear listening to our players, particularly the young group, that the major league game’s hard. It’s faster. Adjustments get made faster by the opposition. Stadium’s are louder, all of that.
“It’s a different experience than playing in Altoona or Indy. To some extent, no matter how much we try to create environments in the minor leagues to test that, there’s nothing quite like experiencing it. One might be working on the same things in Indy as they are in Pittsburgh in terms of skills and things like that. But applying that in a major league game does feel different. More than anything, we had a lot of young players get to do that this year.”
Perhaps the most promising response came from their veteran teammates, who sensed a different clubhouse vibe now that many of the top prospects have joined the core. Reynolds said he believed the final two months gave a glimpse of the Pirates of the future, considering that the majority of the team remains under club control. Hayes hopes that the rookies got valuable experience that will make them more comfortable going into next season.
“We had the change in wins, and a lot of guys on our team it’s their first year,” Hayes said. “I think those guys especially, getting their first taste of the big leagues, getting that extra motivation to know what they need to work on, they’re only going to be better come this time next year and at the start of the season, having that familiarity with MLB, the day, the season. They got a lot of opportunity. They played two, three, four months up here, so going into next year nothing will really be new. They faced a lot of the guys they’re going to face next year, especially in our division. I’m just super excited with what we can do next year.”
Kevin Gorman is a TribLive reporter covering the Pirates. A Baldwin native and Penn State graduate, he joined the Trib in 1999 and has covered high school sports, Pitt football and basketball and was a sports columnist for 10 years. He can be reached at kgorman@triblive.com.
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