Madden Monday: On Penguins' goalie situation, 'this might be the year where the goalie contracts go down'

One of Kyle Dubas’ first big decisions as Pittsburgh Penguins president of hockey operations is what to do with the franchise’s goaltending situation.

Specifically, with regard to free agent starter Tristan Jarry.

Jarry’s checkered history of ill-timed injuries and postseason slumps have left Penguins fans wanting more from the goalie position. And with career backup Casey DeSmith the organization’s only other option, the fanbase seems eager for Dubas to turn the page on the Jarry era in the crease.

But, for who? What goalie is worth signing at a big-ticket free agent price? Will any of them be worthy of a similar price tag to what Jarry may get?

It’s a strange market for goaltending this season. It’s not a great summer to be a seller or a buyer when it comes to free agent goalies attempting to bait big contracts or prospective teams hoping to spend shrewdly in order to better themselves between the pipes.

The market is thin when it comes to top-notch talent, but it’s also thin when it comes to teams with prime situations to land an attractive candidate.

To that end, Jarry has been projected anywhere from a four-year, $6 million per season player, to one who only makes $4.8 million over four years.

TribLIVE’s Jonathan Bombulie uses the phrase “the voodoo of goaltending” to describe that phenomenon. And in this week’s “Madden Monday” podcast, Mark Madden of TribLIVE and 105.9 The X agrees.

“Can’t predict. Can’t project,” Madden said. “Gotta sign somebody. It’s that simple. But this might be the year where the goalie contracts go down some.”

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That’d be music to Dubas’ ears. And if Jarry really does make just $4.8 million per year after making $3.5 million last year, it’d be evidence of a deflated goalie market. And maybe it’d be a sign that a lot of analytically groomed hockey executives (like Dubas) are finally following their own advice.

The long-held belief among analytically inclined hockey types is that in the modern NHL, there is so little variance between goalies, with only a few notable exceptions like Andrei Vasilevski, that dedicating a significant portion of your cap to just one goalie is bad business.

Let alone two if you want a solid backup.

For instance, the analytically oriented might point out that, in terms of save percentage, the 10th place goalie in the NHL (who made $5.6 million) this year had a mark of .916. The 25th goalie in hockey (who made $1.8 million) was only .011 behind at .905.

That difference doesn’t seem like very much, until I tell you that goalie No. 25 was DeSmith and goalie No. 10 was New York Rangers star Igor Shesterkin. So how does a numbers guy like Dubas see that and make sense of it through a Penguins lens?

Not favorably toward Jarry if he plays hardball, according to Madden.

“Jarry is going to listen to his agent,” Madden said. “And he is going to say, ‘Six (years) by six (million dollars). That’s what we can get.’ And Jarry is going to want that. Period.”

Madden suggested Semyon Varlamov from the Islanders and Toronto’s Ilya Samsonov as possibilities for the Penguins to pursue. He brought up Las Vegas’ Adin Hill too. But Madden suggested that Hill may be too expensive to sign given his deep playoff run with the Golden Knights this year.

One popular suggestion from Penguins fans has been Connor Hellebuyck of the Winnipeg Jets. He’s got one year left at $6.16 million.

“You’d have to give up too much for him. Then you’d have to re-sign him. He is really good. But then he is going to get $9 million or $10 million,” Madden said.

Also in the podcast, Madden and I talk about Dubas’ big picture challenges beyond goalie, the NHL Final so far, the Pirates sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals and Steelers predictions for 2023.

Listen: Tim Benz and Mark Madden talk Penguins, Pirates and Steelers