Mark Madden: NHL's target restart date is unrealistic; March is more likely

The Pittsburgh Penguins’ offseason got frisky quick with the acquisition of winger Kasperi Kapanen from Toronto, the re-signing of forward Jared McCann (who would have been a restricted free agent) and the reported (but as yet unconfirmed) trade of Patric Hornqvist to Florida.

Goaltender Matt Murray is on the trade block. Rumors swirl about trading Bryan Rust and signing free-agent defenseman Chris Tanev (winger Brandon’s brother, most recently with Vancouver). The offseason shows no signs of slowing down.

It also shows no signs of ending.

That’s understandable given that the Stanley Cup Final is still in progress. The NHL’s bubble worked. The league is to be commended. The players, too.

But the NHL’s target date to restart Dec. 1 is pie-in-the-sky and no longer being considered. Jan. 1 is just as unlikely. The earliest option with any basis in reality is March 1, and that’s with a severely truncated schedule of 40-48 games.

NBA commissioner Adam Silver said his league will not start till January at the earliest. The NHL doubtless will say similar.

Two things can be counted on when it comes to the NHL’s next season:

• The players never will go back into a bubble. It saved this past season. It won’t be used for the next. Bubble life was tolerated, just this once, and barely.

• The owners will not begin play unless tickets can be sold and not just a few. Even 50% won’t be enough.

The NHL derives 37% of its total revenue from ticket sales. That’s compared to 16% for the NFL. The NFL expects approximately $10 billion in media revenue this season. The NHL’s television contracts are worth about $650 million. Those figures fluctuate a bit according to sourcing, but suffice to say there’s a large difference.

The NFL can be a made-for-TV product. The NHL can’t.

Networks and sponsors would be foolish to increase what they give the NHL. Ratings for the conference finals were the lowest in nine years because the NHL is up against MLB, the NBA and the NFL simultaneously. It’s hardly an opportune time to create more TV and advertising revenue.

Stir in other factors: Maybe there soon will be a vaccine for covid, or maybe not.

Who knows what the various levels of government will allow in terms of mass gatherings? Teams and leagues may have to sue if those in power won’t budge.

Some say the league could start with few or no fans present initially, then increase attendance gradually. That’s absurd, because it puts the virus on a schedule.

When can teams travel freely between the U.S. and Canada?

If you read the tea leaves unsparingly, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the NHL skip a season and resume in October 2021. That might make the most sense financially. The NHL needs to be able to sell most of the tickets. All of the tickets, really.

Penguins general manager Jim Rutherford might make a hundred deals by then. He might trade Kapanen, then get Kapanen back yet again.

The reported interest in Chris Tanev makes sense on some levels, but not on others.

Tanev, 30, is a defensively sound right-handed defenseman who blocks shots and kills penalties. He’s good positionally. His game is smart and simple.

But Tanev doesn’t have blazing speed, and he’d be projected to partner Jack Johnson. Uh-oh.

It’s also tough to figure why Tanev would see himself as a good fit in Pittsburgh.

In Vancouver, he was in a top-four pairing with Quinn Hughes, runner-up for NHL rookie of the year. With the Penguins, he’d likely be in the bottom pair with Johnson. (Tanev might suffer that demotion if he’s overpaid.)

Every time the Penguins get a veteran, it blocks a young player from the lineup. So much for getting younger and hungrier.

Teams reportedly have contacted the Penguins about Rust, who netted a career-high 27 goals.

Rutherford isn’t actively seeking to move Rust, 28. But Rust is at the peak of his value. Rust’s departure could open up a top-six spot for Samuel Poulin, 19, the Penguins’ first-round pick in 2019. That would make them younger and hungrier.