Mark Madden: Steelers fans expecting Ben Roethlisberger to be 100% is wishful thinking

Much already is being assumed about the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 2020 season.

The most obvious is the notion that Ben Roethlisberger, at 38, will return from extreme surgery to fix three tendons in his throwing elbow and function at something approximating 100% (or 90%, or 80%) of his prior capabilities. This, when others from Roethlisberger’s generation of quarterbacks are retiring or regressing without elbow surgery.

That assumption is wishful thinking and understandably so. The alternative is trusting Mason Rudolph to be a No. 1 quarterback.

Even more widely assumed is that the Steelers’ defense will play up to the same level displayed in 2019.

The components still will be there. But you’re betting that Bud Dupree (assuming he’s franchised) has a second straight good season. You’re hoping Stephon Tuitt doesn’t get injured (again). You’re trusting Cameron Heyward to be as good at 31 as he was at 30.

If all that happens, the Steelers likely will finish top 10 defensively in both points and yards allowed. (They finished fifth in both this past season.)

But they won’t get 38 takeaways again. No chance.

When safety Minkah Fitzpatrick arrived in Week 3, he rearranged the Steelers defense into a ball-hawking machine. The opposition never saw it coming.

Until they saw it coming, that is.

Fitzpatrick’s season was a microcosm of how streaky takeaways can be: He was involved with seven in his first seven games as a Steeler, but just one in his last seven.

Near season’s end, as the Steelers offense became plainly awful, foes who minimized offensive risk and took care of the ball beat the Steelers. The Steelers got five takeaways in their last three games, all losses.

That’s still an OK total. Unless Devlin Hodges is your starting quarterback. He couldn’t convert.

Hodges won’t be back or at least won’t play. (Let’s hope not.)

That formula will be. Opposing offenses will be very conservative because that Steelers’ offense figures to again not be very good. That’s even if Roethlisberger finds his elbow and his form.

There’s also a degree of luck involved in getting takeaways. The Steelers had more than their share in 2019.

They also committed more than their share of turnovers offensively: 30. Way too many.

The Steelers offense will have more than its share of problems in 2020.

If Roethlisberger isn’t what he wants to be, he won’t temper his style. He never will be a game manager, just like Brett Favre wouldn’t.

The Steelers don’t have a No. 1 wide receiver. JuJu Smith-Schuster faded in Antonio Brown’s absence. Smith-Schuster doesn’t stink, but doesn’t seem capable of filling the No. 1 role.

The Steelers don’t have a No. 1 running back. Noted author James Conner played just 10 games and only topped 10 carries five times.

The offensive line underachieved despite its name talent and now figures to be phasing in at least one first-year starter.

Don’t assume Roethlisberger will be 100 percent. Don’t assume the offense will be good even if he is. Don’t assume the defense can cover for the offense. As good as it was in 2019, the defense wasn’t good enough. (It got tired by season’s end. Too many snaps.)

The poor caliber of the AFC North often has been the Steelers’ ace in the hole in recent years.

Don’t assume that will be the case in 2020.

The AFC North will be loaded with talented young quarterbacks for the foreseeable future: First pick overall Joe Burrow will go to Cincinnati, joining Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson and Cleveland’s Baker Mayfield in the division. The Ravens had a very good season despite going one-and-done in the playoffs, and God forbid the Browns live up to their level of talent on offense.

This isn’t to write off the Steelers in 2020.

It’s just a warning to not assume anything good, as so many seem to be doing.

If the Steelers stumble, we all know whose fault it will be: Roethlisberger’s. Even if it isn’t. Especially if it isn’t.