Mark Madden's Hot Take: Paying Paul Skenes would show commitment to winning, so don't get your hopes up

The Pirates have won 11 of 15, swept Los Angeles, lead MLB in shutouts, Paul Skenes is cooking, Don Kelly’s record sits at .500, Konnor Griffin is on the horizon, and optimism moving forward is out of control. Absolutely unbearable.

Andrew Fillipponi of 93.7 FM tweeted, “If the playoffs started today and the Pirates were in it, they could get a World Series.”

But the playoffs don’t start today, and the Pirates are last in the NL Central.

Baseball is cumulative. Over 162 games, even the worst teams have hot streaks. One is right now.

The Pirates’ formula for heightened success is simple: You’ve got pitching. Now get bats.

The execution isn’t so simple. Because it requires spending more. Owner Bob Nutting won’t.

Nutting knew exactly what he had in Skenes this past offseason. If he didn’t spend then to get hitters to help Skenes, why would he do it this coming offseason?

What’s happening now is Nutting’s dream: The hook gets baited with knee-jerk optimism, and the marks thrash after it.

Anyway, how long will Skenes be in Pittsburgh?

What happens when he gets his first big arbitration award in 2027? Will Nutting pay Skenes in the neighborhood of $30 million, or will Skenes get traded?

To that end …

If all this rampant hope is to have a basis that isn’t rooted in horse manure, the Pirates should sign Skenes through his arbitration years: 2027, 2028 and 2029.

All the projected fantasyland contracts for Skenes involve buying out at least a year of Skenes’ free agency. Skenes would never do that. He’d be crazy to.

But if we’re to think any of this could be real, give Skenes $10 million for next season, then $30 million for each of the subsequent three seasons. Buy out his arbitration years at a price he’s likely to get anyway. Skenes might do it by way of achieving security, and for the pre-arbitration sweetener in 2026.

Do that, and all the baloney suddenly feels more legit.

Skenes could still get traded, and certainly would be at some point.

But giving Skenes that contract would be a genuine financial commitment to winning, or at least to the attempt.

Until that happens, or something similar, it’s all a mirage dipped in wishful thinking.

Cut to the chase: Nutting would never give Skenes that deal.

The big moves this coming offseason will be re-upping Tommy Pham and Andrew McCutchen. Assuming Pham doesn’t get a better offer from a better team. Because he’d be gone like grain through a goose. (No other team would want McCutchen.)