Memories of 2011, '12 collapses come to forefront amid Pirates' 8-game losing streak
It would be unfair to label the Pittsburgh Pirates’ current slide as a collapse just yet, given that the club still could dig itself out of a season-worst eight-game losing streak.
But things are looking bleak for the Pirates (56-62), who, thanks to a 1-10 stretch, are on the verge of playing themselves out of postseason contention.
As their season spirals, comparisons could be made to the 2011 and 2012 clubs, both of which suffered second-half collapses.
Both of those teams enjoyed surprisingly solid seasons through the All-Star break only to falter and finish under .500.
2nd-half struggles
Entering Tuesday’s games, the 2024 Pirates were six games out of a National League wild-card spot and sat in last place in the NL Central.
The 2011 Pirates had the same record on Aug. 13 but were in worse shape in the wild-card race. By that point, they were 13 games behind the Atlanta Braves (2011 featured just one wild-card team per league before MLB expanded to two in 2012).
The 2011 Pirates were 47-43 at the All-Star break but finished 72-90.
A year later, on Aug. 13, 2012, the Pirates were 64-51 and in control of the second NL wild-card spot.
The Pirates showed signs of life through the end of the month but then won only seven of 28 games in September, slipping under .500 on Sept. 20 to finish 79-83.
Where it went wrong
Few fans could forget the Pirates’ controversial 4-3 loss in 19 innings at Atlanta on July 26, 2011, featuring umpire Jerry Meals’ incorrect safe call of Julio Lugo at home plate.
That game since has been labeled as the turning point for the 2011 Pirates. From there, the club went 19-42 to finish the season.
The 2012 Pirates avoided such a monumental defeat but still went 31-46 after the All-Star break to spoil a promising season that saw the club 16 games over .500 on Aug. 8.
In 2019, the Pirates finished 69-93 in manager Clint Hurdle’s final year at the helm.
But at the All-Star break, they were still in the fight at 44-45 before another frustrating collapse, which featured a 4-24 clip in July and August.
Cause and effect
Today, pitching woes largely are sinking the Pirates, with waning starting pitching and bullpen implosions leading to losses.
To varying extents, similarities can be found on the 2011 and 2012 clubs.
• This year, the Pirates, because of injuries and performance-related reasons, got underwhelming results from starters they brought in to bolster the rotation.
Martin Perez went 2-5 with a 5.20 ERA before the Pirates dealt him at the trade deadline to San Diego, and Marco Gonzales’ campaign recently ended with placement on the 60-day injured list, the second time he has been sidelined for that amount of time this season.
• In 2011, Kevin Correia was acquired in the hopes of aiding the starting rotation, and, for part of the year, he was able to do just that.
But Correia’s second half mirrored that of his club. His ERA spiked to 4.46 in June, 6.08 in July and 8.41 in August before he was shut down with about five weeks left in the season.
• The 2012 Pirates brought aboard A.J. Burnett, who proceeded to go 16-10 with a 3.51 ERA in anchoring the rotation.
That year, the club also had a talented bullpen, with three relievers (Joel Hanrahan, Jared Hughes and Jason Grilli) finishing the season with sub-3.00 ERAs.
Power outage
If there’s one prominent parallel between the three teams, it’s lackluster offense.
• The Pirates’ .244 team batting average in 2011 ranked 12th out of 16 NL teams, per Baseball Reference.
• The following season, the Pirates collectively batted .234, 14th in the NL.
• This season, Pirates batters are hitting only .235, which is second-to-last in the NL.
Cutch carries the load
In 2011 and 2012, Andrew McCutchen put together All-Star campaigns and was in the prime of his career. But strong individual performances weren’t enough to elevate the Pirates out of their post-1992 losing ways.
McCutchen plays a different role in 2024, the second season of his second stint in Pittsburgh.
But recently, not even heroics from the 37-year-old have been sufficient to snap the Pirates’ losing streak, with McCutchen hitting two homers with five RBIs in his past two games.
What it will take?
Last year, the Miami Marlins and Arizona Diamondbacks secured NL wild-card spots with 84-78 records.
Those low win totals translating to postseason appearances were certainly anomalies.
Not counting the strike-shortened 1994 and 1995 MLB seasons or the covid-condensed 2020 campaign, 84 wins is the fewest by an NL wild-card club.
To even reach 84 wins, which this season seems unlikely to be enough for one of three wild cards, the Pirates would have to go 28-16 (.636) down the stretch.
At their best in June and July, the Pirates went 29-22, a .569 winning percentage.
Plenty of games remain, but the Pirates’ situation is reminiscent to the disappointing finishes of 2011 and 2012.
Justin Guerriero is a TribLive reporter covering the Penguins, Pirates and college sports. A Pittsburgh native, he is a Central Catholic and University of Colorado graduate. He joined the Trib in 2022 after covering the Colorado Buffaloes for Rivals and freelancing for the Denver Post. He can be reached at jguerriero@triblive.com.
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