Najee Harris blames himself for the Steelers’ poor run game – and the stats say he’s right

Heading into his Week 4 game, Najee Harris ranks 32nd in the NFL in rushing yards and 45th in yards per carry. Unlike 82 other players across the league, Harris does not have a run that’s gained more than 11 yards.

Not exactly the type of production the Steelers envisioned when they made Harris a first-round pick last year. So who’s to blame?

“It’s me,” Harris said after Friday’s practice at UPMC Rooney Sports Complex. “We need to just stop focusing on (the offensive line) and focus, rather, on me.”

Modern analytics have shifted much the credit and/or blame for a running attack’s success away from the ball carrier and toward the offensive line or offensive scheme.

There is a large degree of truth in that. But advanced statistics also can measure a running back’s performance. And those available are not kind on Harris.

Through Week 3, the NFL’s own Next Gen Stats said Harris was the league’s second-worst running back in “rushing yards over expected” at minus-46. On a per-carry average, Next Gen Stats pegs Harris at gaining 1.14 fewer yards than should be expected based on the play and the blocking.

For perspective, Chicago’s Khalil Herbert leads the NFL in with a plus-2.92 rushing yards over expected.

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Next Gen Stats isn’t the only advanced metrics outlet that paints Harris in a poor light. Footballoutsiders.com’s myriad statistics rank Harris between 19th and 24th among 38 qualifying NFL running backs. In its most comprehensive and all-encompassing numbers, Football Outsiders ranks Harris 22nd and 24th in “Yards Above Replacement” and “Value Over Yardage.” The outlet also has Harris 22nd in “success rate,” which measures how effective each carry is based on down and distance.

Harris’ most productive stretch of the season was the first half of last week’s loss at Cleveland. Harris had 10 carries for 46 yards during those 30 minutes, or 36% of his full season total of 128.

Harris was asked Friday what he can take from that half.

“Really, just how much I need to improve on,” he said. “It’s not the O-line. I think the O-line did a really good job last week, and, actually, starting from the (Week 2 game against the New England Patriots), they have done a really good job of doing what they can control.

“It really just comes down to me. So, really, just me, just doing more.”

Undrafted rookie Jaylen Warren surprisingly won the No. 2 running back job during training camp, and he has out-produced Harris, albeit in a small sample size. Warren has 52 yards on 11 carries and has drawn effusive praise from coach Mike Tomlin and offensive coordinator Matt Canada.

“He’s produced when we put him in there,” Canada said. “Obviously, Najee is Najee, and … we’ve talked about overuse of Najee and too many plays and all those things.”

Harris as a rookie last season led the NFL in touches, and he talked during training camp about accepting a lesser role playing fewer snaps in an effort to elongate his career and keep himself fresh and healthy for the stretch run of this season.

But a case can be made that Warren has been just as — or more — effective as Harris this season.

Harris is graded by Pro Football Focus as 19th among 28 qualifying running backs overall and in “rush” grades. Harris is 24th in yards after contact (2.50 per carry) and has the third-fewest missed tackles forced (six) of the 28 leading rushers. For perspective, PFF says NFL rushing leader Nick Chubb has forced 26 missed tackles.

Only one of the NFL’s 28 leading rushers has a lower long carry than Harris (11 yards), and Harris’ three runs of 10-or-more yards ranks as tied for fifth-fewest among the league’s featured backs.

Whether Harris is aware of the analytics or not, he on Friday was proactive in blaming himself for his early-season lack of production.

“I just need to trust (the offensive line) more,” Harris said. “We’ve got some really good guys. They have done a really good job of getting better, and they are good. And we do have a good O-line.”

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