NBC golf analyst Tom Abbott: Watch out for the weather, Scheffler ... and Phil at U.S. Open in Oakmont

Whenever the U.S. Open comes to Oakmont Country Club, the venerable course always takes top billing. The talk is never about what are the players going to do at Oakmont but rather what Oakmont is going to do to the players.

But NBC golf analyst Tom Abbott thinks the course could have a co-star for the 125th U.S. Open: Mother Nature. With rain in the forecast later this week, it could drastically alter the way Oakmont plays.

Already the course is a bit softer than usual because of the persistent rain in the region over the past few weeks.

“I don’t know if it’s softer than maybe the USGA would like, softer than it could be. I think the forecast this week is going to be very important,” said Abbott, who has covered the PGA and LPGA for NBC/Golf Channel for 15 years. “… Whether there’s a lot of rain that comes down over the course of the week is really going to change the way the golf course plays over the weekend.

“And, obviously if it gets firm and fast, the difficulty is going to ramp up. … If the rain does come, then its going to be little bit easier, in which case the USGA might make the hole locations more difficult. I think that’s going to be a big part of the story this week.”

Oh, and the players will get a lot of attention, too. The one who likely will draw crowds that approach Tiger Woods levels is Scottie Scheffler.

The No. 1 player in the world already has won the PGA Championship this year, which, along with his two Masters titles, gives him a chance this week to get the third leg of the Grand Slam. He also has two other PGA Tour wins this year, including the Memorial two weeks ago.

Abbott said Oakmont sets up “perfectly” for Scheffler.

“I think when you look at the stats and the way that Scheffler has played, he should be the clear winner,” he said. “… I think it’s 100% justified that Scheffler is the heavy favorite. He’s obviously been very good off the tee, he’s been very good into the greens and that’s the key looking at Oakmont.”

While Scheffler chases the Grand Slam, Rory McIlroy, Abbott said, is still coming down from completing the feat at the Masters in April.

He fared well in the two events he played immediately following the Masters: a tie for 12th at the Zurich Classic and a tie for seventh at the Truist Championship. But since then, he has fallen back, tying for 47th at the PGA Championship and then missing the cut at the Canadian Open last week.

Abbott said McIlroy certainly has the talent to win at Oakmont, but he believes the Northern Irishman will have home in the back of his mind. Namely, the British Open at Royal Portrush next month.

“Obviously for him, he’d love to go well here this week,” Abbott said, “… but I think ramping back up for the (British) Open at Portrush, which I think for him, again, is going to be this really important, focused week of winning in Northern Ireland on home soil not that far from where he grew up. There aren’t that many chances for him to do that because the Open doesn’t go to Portrush that often.”

Aside from the usual cast of characters, Abbott threw out the names of a few under-the-radar players to watch this week. One was Justin Rose, who already has a U.S. Open title to his credit (Merion 2013). Rose tied for 10th at Oakmont in 2007 and missed the cut here in 2016, and though Abbott said Rose has the mettle to play well at Oakmont, he, like McIlroy, could be more focused on the British Open.

Abbott also mentioned sleepers such as England’s Aaron Rai — Abbott said his accuracy off the tee could make him a threat — Irishman Shane Lowry, who was runner up to Dustin Johnson at Oakmont in 2016, and Austrian Sepp Straka.

And how about Phil Mickelson? This week marks 35 years since Mickelson played in his first U.S. Open, yet it is the only major championship to elude him.

Coming off a tie for fourth on LIV last week and looking loose and happy on the practice range, Mickelson, Abbott said, can’t be counted out.

“Nobody is talking about Phil anymore,” Abbott said. “I don’t know if he can win, but … you never know with Phil. If Phil can put together a good round and be in the hunt after the first day, the stories and the crowd and the energy would be pretty interesting to see.”