Next 4 games will determine if Pitt can salvage its season

When Pat Narduzzi fired Shawn Watson in 2019 after two seasons as Pitt’s offensive coordinator, he did not arrive at that nasty bit of business easily.

Watson was more than a trusted colleague. At the time of Watson’s hiring, Narduzzi called him “one of my first mentors in this business.”

“He sat me down as a young coach and taught me how to work with wide receivers in my first full-time job at Miami (Ohio) in the early 1990s,” Narduzzi said.

But the change at the top of his coaching staff was seen by Narduzzi as a necessary move. Pitt won the ACC Coastal in 2018, but almost solely on the strength of 1,000-yard rushers Qadree Ollison and Darren Hall and the offensive line.

The passing game was 120th of 129 FBS schools (141.8 yards per game), and Narduzzi knew the trends in college football. Pitt had none of it.

If the program had any chance to evolve beyond that 7-7 season, it needed to throw the football with flair.

Two years later, the passing game has improved dramatically under Watson’s replacement, Mark Whipple, ranking 34th in the nation (259.6). That’s the case even though starting quarterback Kenny Pickett (left ankle) has missed the past two games.

Whipple deserves some credit, but there is no balance on offense and blame travels across the board — from recruiting to play-calling to execution.

Pitt is one of 13 schools — 101 are participating at the moment — rushing for an average of less than 100 yards per game (98). Plus, its average per attempt (including sacks) is 2.8.

The offensive line gets almost no push, and the opposing front seven too often penetrates into the backfield, quickly shutting down running lanes.

Leading rusher Vincent Davis has lost 71 yards, giving him a team-leading net of 263. His best game was a 66-yard effort against a bad Syracuse team while Pitt’s next-best was freshman Izzy Abanicanda’s 41 against Louisville. Abanicanda has totaled only 11 carries for 13 yards in the ensuing four games.

Whether it’s execution or scheme, too many play calls aren’t working.

In two seasons under Whipple, Pitt has had only two 100-yard rushers — Todd Sibley (106) vs. Delaware and A.J. Davis (103) vs. Syracuse, both in 2019). Watson, with the benefit of better quality backs, had 10 — more than Matt Canada (eight) and Jim Chaney (six) before him.

To be fair, Whipple has had eight occasions when pass catchers gained at least 100 yards in a game. Chaney, Canada and Watson managed only 10 in more than double the time.

Pitt’s passing game has been handcuffed by injuries to Jared Wayne, Taysir Mack and tight end Lucas Krull, a total of 23 drops and inconsistency.

D.J. Turner looked like a star when he totaled 186 receiving yards against N.C. State, the most under Narduzzi. In the subsequent three games, he’s caught three passes for 18 yards.

The overall results have been:

• A pitiful third-down conversion rate against Miami and Notre Dame (6 for 32).

• Red-zone inefficiency (10 touchdowns in 21 trips), excluding the Austin Peay game.

• A total of 11 games with two touchdowns or fewer in 20 games under Whipple.

• Worst of all, Pitt was 0-for-October (0-4) for the first time since the miserable Johnny Majors II years of 1994 and 1995. Those teams finished 3-8 and 2-9.

Yet, all was not lost while Narduzzi and his staff worked through the off week and prepared for the final four games.

• There’s ample opportunity to reverse fortunes. A 3-1 finish that turns into a 6-5 final record would indicate the team responded to its coach in dire times. (Even though the final record would be no better than less talented Pitt teams managed in the years before Narduzzi arrived.)

• His 2021 recruiting class is ranked 23rd in the nation by Rivals.com. If the ranking holds and no one flips, it will be Pitt’s best since Dave Wannstedt’s No. 21 class in 2006.

Narduzzi said any evaluations that come from outside the walls of his office or the locker room don’t interest him.

“I’m worried about the perception inside here,” he said. “I’m not worried about all the pundits out there. I’m worried about what our kids feel and what our coaches feel. I don’t read about what you guys say out there, nor do I like to because I know how it is. I know what it’s like. That’s why I don’t have to even look.”