This week, NFL.com’s
It was an exercise to show the best possible and worst possible results for a big pack of potential NFL rookie contributor based on several variables for their teams.
Of course, on the offensive side, Jeremiah’s list included Steelers rookie running back Najee Harris. Here is what he was thinking about how well — or poorly — things could go in Year 1 for the former Alabama star in Pittsburgh.
Best-case scenario: The former Tide star leads the league in rushing. That sounds ambitious, but Harris has the ability to carry a heavy workload if the Steelers choose to go that route. If he gets the touches, he will produce a monster season.
Worst-case scenario: The offensive line fails to jell after adding so many new pieces in the offseason. They’ve given a lot of lip service to returning to the run game in Pittsburgh, but it might be tempting for Ben Roethlisberger and Co. to keep airing it out to a bevy of talented pass catchers. If the offense leans that way, Harris could catch 65-plus passes.
Projected stats: 1,200 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs; 45 catches, 2 receiving TDs.
If you look at the numbers, Jeremiah’s projections are leaning much more in the direction of that “best-case scenario” category, even if they fall short of an NFL rushing crown in Harris’ first season.
Especially if you put those stats in context with last year.
If Harris had been drafted in 2020 and gained 1,200 yards for the Steelers, that would’ve placed him third in all of the NFL, behind only Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook. That total also would’ve given him a slight edge on Indianapolis Colts back Jonathan Taylor for the rookie rushing title.
Ten rushing touchdowns also would’ve tied him with Kenyan Drake for 10th in the NFL.
But Jeremiah’s concerns about what could manifest as a result of a worst-case scenario make a lot of sense, too.
A shaky, rebuilt offensive line. A quarterback who is always in command and reverts to his own arm whenever he has the chance to check into a passing play. A team that might have to play a lot of catch-up at the end of the season against a brutal schedule.
Not to mention the prospect for injury.
For all those reasons, I think Jeremiah’s projections for Harris’ ground stats are probably a tick high. I’m looking more in the 950-1,100 range. That would easily be a satisfactory start to Harris’ career in my eyes.
Plus, I think Jeremiah was closer to accurate in his write-up of Harris’ high end for catches than the actual number he predicted.
I’d bet Harris hauls in closer to that 55-65 reception range than he does 45.
Either way, I’m anticipating really good things from Harris this season. And I’m awaiting Pro Bowl-level performance the minute the Steelers construct an offensive line worthy of blocking for his talents.
