NFL reactions — and overreactions — for Steelers and other AFC contenders after Week 1

The opening Pittsburgh Steelers game of the season isn’t just fun because of those three hours of excitement on that first Sunday afternoon.

Or Monday night.

Or even the occasional Thursday night.

It’s fun because of the ensuing week when we endure those massive swings of emotion and adjustments of opinions based on seeing the team in reality — as opposed to theory and conjecture for a seven-month offseason.

That doesn’t just go for how we grade the Steelers but also how we look at the AFC North and the rest of the conference’s contenders.

So, let’s take a look at a batch of AFC teams and see if 60 minutes (or occasionally sometimes a little bit more) of Week 1 football has completely enhanced — or erased — roughly half a year of analysis.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Performing the “win, loss, win, loss, win, win, loss” routine once the schedule is released every year is worthless.

NFL seasons are too unpredictable.

But regardless of how most Steelers fans and media members opined about the state of the franchise heading into 2021, I’d bet 90% of them assumed a loss to Buffalo as part of their final record prediction.

So, even though Sunday’s surprising 23-16 victory happened in the vacuum of one result out of 17, if you were someone who had them at 10-12 wins, you’ve probably got them at 11-13 now.

If you were like me and had them at no better than nine wins, you probably have them between 8-10 now. I do. The high end of that projection should be enough to get into the playoffs.

If you had them below seven, you should just flat-out change your mind.

Week 1 change of opinion?: Yes. By a game or two.

If the Steelers are good enough to beat the Bills on the road, they may be good enough to wiggle out of their brutal four-game gauntlet of a schedule (Titans, Chiefs, Browns, Ravens) at the end of the season without collapsing down the stretch as they have each of the last three years.

Then again, as we’ve seen with the Steelers under head coach Mike Tomlin, they are every bit as capable of losing to a sizable underdog like the Raiders or Bengals as they are beating a favorite like the Bills.

In other words, let’s reassess after Week 3.

Buffalo Bills

There are plenty of reasons for Bills fans to be mad about Sunday’s season-opening loss to the Steelers.

Fourth-down decision-making. Poor offensive line play. Leaky second-half defense. Josh Allen’s accuracy not as on point as much as it was the last year.

That said, if we are to give the Steelers defense credit for being as uniquely good as we want to argue that it is, then it is fair to suggest the Bills may not be as bad as they appeared to be in some offensive areas.

And it’s also fair to assume that offensive coordinator Brian Daboll will never again call that horrid fourth-and-1 play that he tried early in the fourth quarter.

Week 1 change of opinion?: No. Unless the stat gurus are right and Allen is doomed to regress and the Bills offensive line has suddenly become worse than the Steelers last year.

I’d rather give the Steelers defense and punt block team credit for influencing that game more in their direction than assuming the Bills are taking a big step back.

Las Vegas Raiders

If you are someone who thought they were between a seven- to nine-win team, I’m not sure how the result of their “Monday Night Football” performance really changes that opinion.

It was wildly entertaining to watch, but I did not see anything that changes my outlook on Jon Gruden’s team.

That Monday night win over the Baltimore Ravens was on a razor’s edge against a quality — but very banged up — conference foe, and it came down to some crazy plays down the stretch in both directions.

Credit to the Raiders for making the ones that mattered. But let’s not forget how they goofed up at times to make the game more difficult to win.

This could be a better Raiders team than some of the versions the Steelers have seen in the recent past. Yet, a lot of those lesser editions of the Silver and Black still found a way to beat perceived superior iterations of the Steelers anyway.

So not only should your opinion of Vegas stay cloudy over 17 games this season, it should be that way about the game Sunday at Heinz Field, too.

Since the start of the 2006 season, the Steelers have lost to the Raiders five of seven times and none of those Raider teams were good enough to make the playoffs.

Week 1 change of opinion?: No. I still think they are good enough to stay in the playoff race all year. I still think they are flawed enough to be the last team to get eliminated from a wild card slot.

Baltimore Ravens

My opinion on the Ravens changed during the last few weeks of the preseason with season-ending injuries they sustained to their running backs and to defensive back Marcus Peters.

I thought they were going to be AFC North champs before all of that happened. Now I think they’ll be lucky to get the last wild card spot.

As expected, it appears the franchise’s run game infrastructure is still intact despite the injuries. It’s safe to say that 189 yards rushing against Las Vegas in the opener is indicative of that.

But Lamar Jackson had to account for 86 of those on 12 carries. Of their 67 rushing and pass plays on offense, Jackson was responsible for 42 of them. That’s leaning on Jackson too much and risking injury too often, especially if the front office can’t find a right tackle better than Alejandro Villanueva. Either Maxx Crosby is T.J. Watt multiplied by Lawrence Taylor, to the power of Derrick Thomas squared … or Villanueva is washed up.

If the first thing is true, I wish Chuks Okorafor the best of luck Sunday. Or, should I say, I wish Ben Roethlisberger the best of luck.

Because he can’t escape like Jackson. Frankly, Jackson shouldn’t have to escape on every play either. Although it seems like he was doing that Monday during the 33-27 overtime loss.

Week 1 change of opinion?: No. Whoever the Ravens were in your mind after their early September injuries, that’s who they should be now. They’ll win a few wild games like the one on Monday night. But they are going to lose a few more than I expected before all those guys got hurt.

On the flip side, if you hadn’t considered this question since the final preseason game when J. K. Dobbins’ injury started the run of cataclysmic health problems, then the answer is “yes.”

Cincinnati Bengals

Since Joe Burrow came back and played well and the Bengals won, the quarterback’s return to play from a knee injury is the biggest talking point in Cincinnati this week.

As it should be.

But — and this is a rare thing to say about Cincinnati football — there are plenty of other storylines to praise.

Wide receiver Ja’ Marr Chase bounced back from a rocky preseason to total 101 receiving yards and a touchdown with five catches on seven targets en route to the team’s 27-24 overtime victory against Minnesota.

The run defense held Vikings star running back Dalvin Cook and the Vikings to just 67 team rushing yards. Meanwhile, Joe Mixon had 127 yards on 29 carries. The more handoffs Mixon gets, the less Burrow is exposing himself to injury.

Lastly, on a day when the Vikings had 12 penalties, the normally frazzled Bengals were disciplined enough to only draw three.

Obviously, there are still things to fix. Cincinnati allowed five sacks. Kirk Cousins went off for 351 passing yards. And the Bengals offense was just 3 of 14 on third downs.

But overall, the good vibes went beyond Burrow.

Week 1 change of opinion?: Yes. The Bengals may be six- to seven-win kind of good, instead of four- to five-win kind of bad.

Cleveland Browns

I saw way too many Steelers fans and media channeling their inner JuJu Smith-Schuster with a bunch of “Browns is the Browns” tweets after Cleveland lost 33-29 in Kansas City.

Granted, how Cleveland lost that opener in Kansas City was very Brownstastic. You know, the fumbled punt snap, n’at.

But they’ve now given the Chiefs all they can handle two years in a row at Arrowhead. And their run game is legit.

The Browns lost the game in a very Browns fashion. I don’t think that’s who they are as a team, though.

Week 1 change of opinion?: No. They’ve beaten the Steelers twice in a row, including at Heinz Field in the playoffs.

The onus is now on Tomlin’s team to prove that the Steelers ain’t the Steelers anymore. After three straight December collapses and four years without a playoff victory, we all have the right to reserve judgment until then.

Even though this past Monday I know many of you were asking, “When does the parade start?”

Tennessee Titans

They lost 38-13 at home to the Arizona Cardinals.

Week 1 change of opinion?: I just said they lost 38-13 at home to the Arizona Cardinals. Do we even have to ask?

Kansas City Chiefs

Coming into this season, I thought that they were still the best team in the AFC. But they may simply be due to lose a playoff game to a team like Buffalo.

Regardless, they won a tight, gut-check game at home against a quality AFC North team. The Bills lost that same kind of game.

Week 1 change of opinion?: Not yet. Ask me again in January.

Tim Benz and TribLIVE Steelers beat writer Joe Rutter flash back to some bad Steelers-Raiders memories. They discuss some Raiders injuries, some snap count questions for the Steelers and some tricky gambling odds.