BetMGM: Patriots vs. Bills / NFL betting odds, lines & predictions for Wild Card Weekend
By BetMGM Betting /
The Buffalo Bills (10-6) play the New England Patriots (10-6) on Saturday, Jan. 15, at 8:15 p.m. EST at Highmark Stadium in the AFC Wild Card Round. CBS will broadcast.
The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).
The total (Over/Under) is 43.5 points for the game.
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Patriots are winless (0-3) when rushing less than 20 times since last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .153.
The Patriots are winless (0-6) when rushing for less than 100 yards since last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .320.
The Patriots are winless (0-5) when rushing at least 4 yards less than 5 times in a game since last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .314.
The Patriots are 14-2 (.875) when scoring 22 or more points since last season — 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .711.
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Bills are 16-6 (.727) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2020 season — fifth-best in NFL. The Jets have allowed 268.6 passing yards per game since last season — second-worst in NFL.
The Bills are winless (0-4) when scoring less than 22 points this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .223.
The Bills are 10-2 (.833) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season — 5th-best in NFL; League Avg: .582.
The Bills are 9-1 (.900) when intercepting at least 1 pass this season — 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .628.
Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills, Wild Card Weekend
The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 47.3% this season — fourth-best in NFL. The Jets defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 44.8% this season — fifth-worst in NFL.
The Bills have gone three and out on 13.1% of their drives this season — second-best in NFL. Jets have forced three and outs on 16.2% of opponent drives this season — second-worst in NFL.
The Bills have scored on 44.9% of their drives this season — fifth-best in NFL. The Jets defense has allowed scores on 48.6% of opponent drives this season — worst in NFL.
The Patriots have 35 touchdown passes since the 2020 season — tied for third-fewest in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 43 passing TDs since last season — fifth-fewest in NFL.
The Patriots are averaging 4.3 yards per carry on rushes up the middle this season — tied for fourth-best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 4.7 yards per carry when defending rushes up the middle to RBs this season — second-worst in NFL.
The Patriots scored 7 TDs last week — most in NFL. The Dolphins allowed 4 TDs last week — tied for third-most in NFL.
Key Injuries for the Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Game, Wild Card Weekend
● Buffalo Bills - No Injuries Reported
● New England Patriots - No Injuries Reported
New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats for Wild Card Weekend
The Patriots have started 5 drives inside their own 10 yard line this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
The Patriots rushed for 4 TDs in Week 17 — tied for most in NFL.
The Patriots scored 7 TDs in Week 17 — most in NFL.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 87% of plays in the 1st quarter in Week 17 — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats for Wild Card Weekend
The Bills have an average drive start position from the 37.4 yard line in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25.6.
The Bills ran 51% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st half in Week 17 — best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.
The Bills ran 36% of their plays in the red zone in Week 17 — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
The Bills have run 26% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats for Wild Card Weekend
The Patriots defense allowed a passer rating of just 33.7 on 3rd down (113 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 85.7
The Patriots defense allowed a passer rating of just 28.6 on 3rd and long (56 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 82.0
The Patriots defense has allowed 6 rushing TDs on 69 carries (11.5 Carries Per TD) in the red zone this season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.2.
The Patriots defense did not record a sack (61 pass attempts) in the red zone last season — tied for worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 18.1
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats for Wild Card Weekend
The Bills defense has allowed a passer rating of just 65.4 (511 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.6.
The Bills defense has allowed 11 TD passes this season — fewest in NFL.
The Bills defense has allowed first downs on 26% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 35%.
The Bills defense has allowed a Completion Pct of just 57% (291 completions/511 attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 65%.
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