Penguins Prediction Rewind: Jamie Oleksiak's fight card had fewer bouts than expected
Last summer, beat writer Jonathan Bombulie made a series of predictions leading up to the start of the 2018-19 season. Some were OK. Some were hilariously off the mark. In this series, Bombulie will explain what he was thinking and where his logic went off course.
THE QUESTION
How many fighting majors will Jamie Oleksiak record this season?
A. Less than the seven he had last year
B. Right around the seven he had last year
C. More than the seven he had last year
THE PREDICTION
B. Right around the seven he had last year
THE RIGHT ANSWER
A. Less than the seven he had last year
THE RATIONALE
• A fight with Washington’s Tom Wilson, who was owed a receipt for his hit on Zach Aston-Reese in the previous playoffs, was practically inevitable, so Oleksiak was starting with one fighting major already on his toteboard. He only needed to find five or six more to make the prediction ring true.
• Oleksiak isn’t a showman like Ryan Reaves, but he understands the role of a 6-foot-7 defenseman in an NHL team’s lineup. When situations arise, it’s his job to handle them.
• Looking at it from a decade-by-decade perspective, fighting is certainly disappearing from the NHL game. Looking at it year to year, though, it’s only decreasing incrementally. Death by a thousand cuts.
READER REACTION
A sample of Facebook comments:
• “Won’t be many because it’s no longer an important element to the game. He is a D-man, they need him out there to play D, not beat on faces.”
• “They need to be a high octane offense with balanced attack and focus on their speed and skill, not resorting to fights. Big Rig is a great offensive threat from the blue-line and taking himself off the ice wouldn’t be a great idea.”
WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED
• Oleksiak had three fights in 43 games, on pace for right around the same seven fight total he amassed the previous season, when the Wilson fight happened Dec. 19. He suffered a concussion, missed a month and played only four more games with the Penguins before being traded back to Dallas. He didn’t fight in 23 games with the Stars.
THE FLAWS IN THE LOGIC
• When making predictions about a topic as violent as fighting, injuries must be accounted for. As the Wilson fight proved, a player is taking his health into his own hands every time he drops the gloves.
• While there has been a lot of talk in recent years about the Penguins wanting to have a heavyweight in the lineup after they acquired Reaves and Erik Gudbranson, the team’s culture really doesn’t include a heavy fighting influence. Take Gudbranson’s arrival for example. He didn’t have a single bout in a Penguins uniform last season. He announced his presence with a hard hit on Wilson in his first matchup against the Capitals after the trade. That’s how statements are made in the NHL in 2019, especially for the Penguins.
LESSONS LEARNED
• Know how many NHL players had at least seven fights last season? None. The league lead was six shared by 10 players. In the modern NHL, it’s always best to predict there will be fewer fighting majors, not more, no matter the specifics of the question.
Jonathan Bombulie is the TribLive assistant sports editor. A Greensburg native, he was a hockey reporter for two decades, covering the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins for 17 seasons before joining the Trib in 2015 and covering the Penguins for four seasons, including Stanley Cup championships in 2016-17. He can be reached at jbombulie@triblive.com.
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