Penguins value shot totals but do so differently than others

Mike Sullivan has copious accomplishments on his resume as Penguins coach.

The two Stanley Cup rings he, presumably, has stored in a safe or sock drawer are testament to that.

There are wins, too. Lots of them. His 184 victories are the third best in franchise history.

He even has signature triumphs against each of the Penguins’ most hated rivals, such as the Flyers and Capitals, as well as other foes with Patrick Division DNA like the Rangers, Islanders and Devils.

Before Saturday, one of the few notable absences on the resume was a victory against the Chicago Blackhawks, a franchise that employed him as a player development coach in 2014-15. As a team, the Penguins had not beaten the Blackhawks since March 30, 2014, near the end of Dan Bylsma’s time as coach.

That futility came to an end Saturday as the Penguins came back from a two-goal deficit to win 3-2 in a shootout at PPG Paints Arena.

“A statistic like that is difficult to measure because, for me, this is a whole new season,” Sullivan said. “We have a whole new team. They have a whole new team. I don’t know that you can draw any conclusions from that.”

A more contemporary statistic Sullivan is less hesitant to put weight into is shots. On Saturday, the Penguins were even with the Blackhawks in shots on net at 31. That marked the first time in 11 games they had not outshot an opponent.

“We look a number of different statistics,” Sullivan said. “The shot (total) is one of them. But there are a number of statistics that, together, tell the clearest story of how the game is played. The shot (total) is an indication of where the game is played. So if teams are racking up a lot of shots, usually it’s as a result of them controlling territory.

“And we’re the same way. We’re looking at shots in conjunction with scoring chances. Then we break down specifics, Grade A chances versus Grade B chances. So there are a lot of other things that we look at, not just the shot (totals). It does tell you something but not the whole story.”

The story through 17 games this season has the Penguins overwhelming their opponent in the shot battle 13 times. They have underwhelmed in that area three times. Saturday’s contest was the first occasion they simply “whelmed” the opposition.

“Shots can be a little deceiving, sometimes,” said forward Bryan Rust, who has averaged two shots per game in six contests this season. “But not all the time. Usually, if you have more shots, you’re usually controlling the play. But a lot of teams might shoot the puck from the outside and things like that. We like to measure the game by scoring chances and kind of where the game is being played. If we have more (offensive) zone time, that will indicate we played pretty well.”

Make no mistake, it’s preferable to win the shot battle. Especially if your job is to stop them.

“It can indicate certain things about the game but not everything,” goaltender Matt Murray said. “We can tell how we’re playing more so by zone time. I would say (that) is probably a more important number. But the more shots, the better, of course.”

The Penguins maintain several statistics in house, independent of the NHL’s official totals. Most of those figures are far more complex than a simple shot total.

“Shot attempts … I think you guys (media) really like that statistic,” Sullivan said. “For me, it really doesn’t tell you a whole lot other than the fact that a guy is trying to shoot. But what if he’s trying to shoot from the neutral zone? There’s way more to it than that. Shot selection is important, too. We’re trying to drill down into the details of how the game is being played. And, certainly, we’re trying to encourage our guys to shoot the puck for sure, but we also want to shoot with a purpose.”

Added Rust: “If me and my linemates are kind of controlling the puck in the (offensive) zone and getting some scoring chances and getting around the net, I think that’s an indications of playing well. Just a bunch of shots from the outside doesn’t really make you that great.”

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