Penn State's updated College Football Playoff projections after loss to Oregon

How much damage was done to Penn State’s postseason outlook after losing at home in double overtime to Oregon in Week 5?

The Nittany Lions took a bit of a soft fall in the national rankings this week, and the analytics from ESPN suggest the season could be heading to a possible 9-3 regular season record, which would more than likely be enough to keep Penn State out of any College Football Playoff conversation. But that still remains up in the air for now. According to some updated playoff projections, Penn State may still be in the mix for a playoff spot at the end of the year after suffering a heartbreaking defeat to the Ducks.

It is safe to say Penn State’s playoff picture looks much different this week than it did a week ago. USA TODAY’s updated postseason projections still have Penn State in the College Football Playoff, but they would be hosting a first-round game instead of getting a bye as a top-four seed.

And who would they be playing? According to Erick Smith’s updated projections, Penn State would host the Texas Longhorns in the first round. That would be quite a first-round matchup in Happy Valley with Penn State’s defense looking to rattle Texas quarterback Arch Manning in Happy Valley in December.

Smith has Penn State advancing past Texas to set up a rematch with Oregon in the Cotton Bowl for the College Football Playoff quarterfinals. But Smith has Penn State coming up short against Oregon for a second time.

Penn State is still a playoff team, according to ESPN’s updated projections from Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach as well, although each has a different first-round matchup in mind right now. Bonagura has Penn State as the No. 6 seed hosting Iowa State in the first round, but Schlabach has Penn State hitting the road as the No. 11 seed to play at Texas Tech. Both ESPN experts have Penn State facing the Big 12 champion in these projections, but Schlabach has Penn State losing to Texas Tech while Bonagura projects Penn State into a quarterfinal matchup with Miami (No. 3 seed) in the Orange Bowl.

The latest bowl and playoff projections from Athlon Sports also still have Penn State in the College Football Playoff, but as the No. 11 seed playing at No. 6 seed Georgia. That is where Penn State’s season potentially comes to an end though, as Athlon Sports has Georgia advancing to the quarterfinal round to face Miami.

Penn State will play its first road game of the year this weekend when it visits UCLA. The Nittany Lions are a big road favorite. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. on CBS.