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Per usual, many of the Penguins' highest-quality chances involved Jake Guentzel | TribLIVE.com
Penguins/NHL

Per usual, many of the Penguins' highest-quality chances involved Jake Guentzel

Justin Guerriero
6112683_web1_AP23090068554003
AP
Pittsburgh Penguins’ Jake Guentzel (59) can’t get a shot off next to Nashville Predators goaltender Juuse Saro, left, with Ryan McDonagh (27) defending during the third period of an NHL hockey game in Pittsburgh, Thursday, March 30, 2023.

Generally speaking, 36-goal scorers are largely above reproach when it comes to examining a hockey club’s shortcomings.

But given how the Pittsburgh Penguins’ season transpired, with the team missing the playoffs for the first time since 2006, everything and everyone is under the microscope in the aftermath.

Without a doubt, winger Jake Guentzel delivered in his seventh season with the Penguins, adding 37 assists to his aforementioned 36 goals for 73 points in 78 games played.

But Guentzel, a two-time 40-goal scorer, has set a high bar because of his past performances.

And in terms of pure numbers, this year featured a bit of a drop in production from 2021-22 when he had 40 goals and a career-high 84 points.

While Guentzel, in the eyes of teammates, coaches, front office officials and fans alike, probably would rank low on the suspect list in terms of culpability for the Penguins’ struggles, the 28-year-old’s self-assessment wasn’t exactly glowing.

“Just OK. Not great, not too bad,” he said of his 2022-23 performance at the Penguins’ end-of-year locker cleanout Saturday in Cranberry. “Definitely expect more. It’s part of the game. It’s not going to be successful every year.

“You’re not going to have good years every year. You just gotta make sure you’re working hard in the summers and doing everything you can to make sure you’re ready to be better next year.”

Few, if any, Penguins players were in the mood to shower themselves with glory in the aftermath of a disappointing season, Guentzel included, but he led the team in goals for the second straight year and tied for the team lead with 11 scores on the power play.

Guentzel also continued his knack this year of scoring empty-netters, pacing the Penguins with seven such goals, as he did last season, having tied Sidney Crosby and Bryan Rust in that regard in 2019-20.

Guentzel’s 25 even-strength goals tied Jason Zucker for best on the Penguins.

“Jake has, I think, quietly evolved into a superstar in this league,” coach Mike Sullivan said in December. “He’s one of the best goal-scorers in the league in my opinion. His numbers speak for (themselves). He’s an ultra-competitive guy. He’s just been a terrific Pittsburgh Penguin.”

Guentzel’s future as a Penguin will need to be addressed at some point in the near future, as he will be an unrestricted free agent after the 2023-24 season.

Guentzel, entering the final season of a five-year, $30-million deal signed at the end of 2018, will be positioned for a solid payday, whether that comes from the Penguins or elsewhere.

Of course, the yet-to-be-hired front office brass in Pittsburgh will have more time-sensitive free-agent matters to attend to, with seven players becoming unrestricted free agents July 1.

On the ice, a dive into advanced analytics reveals interesting details about Guentzel’s production.

Per Natural Stat Trick, high-danger chances for are calculated by assessing the location of a shot in the offensive zone — the closer proximity to and better angle on the net, the higher the danger of the chance — in addition to factoring in situational aspects such as if it came on the rush or off a rebound.

This past season, Guentzel had a career-high 337 high-danger scoring chances, surpassing his previous high of 301 set in 2018-19.

The Penguins overall generated 1,256 such chances, giving Guentzel just under 27% of the team’s total.

Unsurprisingly, the lines Guentzel was a part of — skating at left wing alongside Crosby, with a mixture of Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust working as the primary right wing on the Penguins’ top line — produced the majority of the club’s high-danger chances.

The Guentzel-Crosby-Rakell line had a team-best 174 high-danger chances, and Rust’s inclusion on the top line in place of Rakell generated 123.

The line of Evgeni Malkin, Zucker and Rust followed with 106 high danger chances created.

For all the inherent positives that go with generating chances, the Penguins’ ability to finish them proved something of a letdown.

There’s a long list of reasons as to why the Penguins aren’t currently competing in the playoffs, having missed out on the final Eastern Conference wild-card spot by a single point.

Given the team suffered 19 one-goal defeats, finding ways to bury as many high-danger chances as possible moving forward will be a needed area of improvement for Sullivan and Co.

“It’s different. Not many people have been in this situation before,” Guentzel said. “Just gotta take it as you go. Hopefully, get in the gym faster or get on the ice as fast as you can. For us, it’s a different scenario. You can take it as a positive that you gotta get better.”

Justin Guerriero is a TribLive reporter covering the Penguins, Pirates and college sports. A Pittsburgh native, he is a Central Catholic and University of Colorado graduate. He joined the Trib in 2022 after covering the Colorado Buffaloes for Rivals and freelancing for the Denver Post. He can be reached at jguerriero@triblive.com.

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Categories: Penguins/NHL | Sports
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