Pirates among 3 teams with highest chance of winning lottery for top pick in MLB Draft

The Pittsburgh Pirates are one of three teams with the best chance of winning the inaugural lottery for the top pick in the MLB Draft.

As the teams with the worst records in the majors, the Pirates (62-100), Oakland A’s (60-102) and Washington Nationals (55-107) each have the highest odds of winning the lottery, at 16.5%.

The Cincinnati Reds (62-100) are next, at 13.2%. Despite having identical records this past season, the Pirates were slotted ahead of the Reds because the Pirates had a worse record in 2021, when the Pirates finished 61-101 and the Reds were 83-79.

The order of the first six selections will be announced at 8:30 p.m. Dec. 6 on MLB Network from the winter meetings in San Diego. The draft lottery was negotiated as part of the collective bargaining agreement between MLB owners and the players association last March to prevent teams from tanking for the top pick.

All 18 teams that didn’t qualify for the playoffs are eligible. The top six selections are decided by lottery, with the next 12 picks set by reverse order of the regular-season standings.

So, the Pirates could draft as high as first overall or as low as ninth.

After the Pirates, A’s, Nationals and Reds, the teams with chances of winning the draft lottery are the Kansas City Royals at 10%, Detroit Tigers (7.5%), Texas Rangers (5.5%), Colorado Rockies (3.9%), Miami Marlins (2.7%), the Los Angeles Angels (1.85%), Arizona Diamondbacks (1.4%), the Chicago Cubs (1.1%), Minnesota Twins (0.9%), Boston Red Sox (0.8%), the Chicago White Sox (0.6%), San Francisco Giants (0.5%), Baltimore Orioles (0.4%) and Milwaukee Brewers (0.2%).

The rest of the draft will be determined by postseason outcomes. The draft lottery order only applies to the first round. For Rounds 2-20, the non-playoff teams will be sorted by reverse order of the regular-season standings.

The Pirates have had top-10 picks in each of the past three drafts and four times in the past five drafts. They took New Mexico State second baseman Nick Gonzales at No. 7 overall in 2020, Louisville catcher Henry Davis first overall in 2021, Georgia prep shortstop Termarr Johnson at fourth overall in July and South Alabama outfielder Travis Swaggerty 10th overall in 2018.