Pirates have company from other rebuilding MLB teams making early waves in '23

Despite their 8-7 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Tuesday night, the Pittsburgh Pirates are still alone atop the National League Central Division at 16-8. The team finished 62-100 a year ago.

But the Pirates aren’t alone in their fast ascent up the standings. Three of the six divisions in Major League Baseball are currently led by teams who were well under .500 a season ago.

Like the Pirates, the Minnesota Twins (78-84 in ‘22) lead the American League Central at 14-10. The 14-9 Texas Rangers (68-94 in ‘22) are the division leaders in the American League West. The Arizona Diamondbacks (74-88 in ‘22) are a half-game back of the Dodgers in the National League West with a 13-12 record.

I asked Pirates manager Derek Shelton if he saw any commonality between the clubs. His answer was as traditional as it gets in baseball terms.

“All those places are pitching really well,” Shelton said. “When you pitch well, it gives you a chance to win games. … That would be the commonality to me.”

For the most part, Shelton is right. The Twins (82, tied for 2nd), Rangers (93, 7th) and Pirates (94, tied for 8th) are all within the top 10 of Major League Baseball in terms of fewest runs allowed. Arizona is the outlier, with 123 allowed, in 25th place.

But Pirates utility man Connor Joe offered another potential explanation.

“Starting in spring training, we preached hard-nosed, grinding baseball,” Joe said. “A lot of pressure on the basepaths. Create pressure on the other team. That’s produced runs.”

There’s some statistical evidence to back up that theory from Joe too.

In the case of the Twins, they are the exception at 17th in the league in runs scored with 103. But Texas is second in runs scored at 151, the Diamondbacks are tied for ninth at 119, and the Pirates are 11th with 118. All three of those teams were also in the top 11 under the category of run-scoring percentage, which measures the percentage of time a base runner eventually comes around to score.

Yet, Texas is the only club of that group in the top 10 of home runs with 32 (6th in MLB). So most of the teams are getting the job done without reliance on the long ball.

“To the athletic part of it, Arizona is extremely athletic. They have a bunch of young players that really have the ability to run,” Shelton said. “The interesting thing as we move forward is how teams build their roster with athleticism. Because we are seeing athletic movement, stealing bases, going first to third, that’s really vital in the game.”

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Furthering the point, the Pirates (28) and the Diamondbacks (24) are two of the top three teams in the NL in stolen bases.

Shelton noted the possible connection that some of these rebuilding teams are evolving with rosters that have a lot of players who recently spent time in the minor leagues. That’s where MLB’s new rules that encourage base stealing, speed and a reliance on the pitch clock were being introduced in advance of this year.

As a result, perhaps these reconstructed clubs are relying on players that have more pitchers and base runners that are familiar with the pace of play, stresses of the pitch clock and nuances of the base stealing rules.

“We talked about it a little bit in spring training. We thought we would have an advantage because a lot of our players were young, and they had played within these guidelines and these rules. It really hasn’t been an adjustment for them. I can see how that would play a part in it,” Shelton said.

Meanwhile, some of the more veteran clubs with players on big contracts and with lots of MLB service time may still be balking at the new rules and having a harder time adjusting.

Those are all on-field, seamhead, X and O theories as to why some of these out-of-nowhere teams are off to such good starts. Pirates starter Rich Hill offered an explanation that relied a bit more on intangibles — at least within his own locker room.

“All these guys understand that there is a time frame that we have to play this game. And everyone is seeing that the time is now to take advantage of the opportunity that we have,” Hill said. “That said, the games in April count as much as they do in September. So the continuation of winning is to keep putting in the work on a daily basis.”

Will we see all four of these teams on top of their division standings in September? Highly unlikely.

Can they at least keep baseball interesting in their respective cities until their local NFL teams start training camp in late July?

I can’t speak for any of those other places, but here in Pittsburgh, that certainly would be more than what I could’ve asked for on Opening Day.