Pirates top prospect Paul Skenes scheduled to make MLB debut Saturday against Cubs

In what is expected to be the most anticipated debut by a starting pitcher since Stephen Strasburg in 2010, the Pittsburgh Pirates are promoting Paul Skenes to the major leagues, a source confirmed to TribLive.

The 21-year-old right-hander, the No. 1 overall pick of the 2023 MLB Draft and regarded as baseball’s top pitching prospect, is expected to be promoted from Triple-A Indianapolis and start against the Chicago Cubs on Saturday at PNC Park.

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Skenes has made a meteoric rise from the minors to the majors and will make his debut after only 34 innings over 12 starts across four levels in 10 months, an ascension almost unheard of for any prospect but especially a pitcher. Skenes, however, is advanced in terms of both his five-pitch repertoire and elite velocity and breaking pitches.

“Efficiency is going to be specific to him,” Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said late last month. “The guy that’s gonna live on ground balls and nine-pitch innings, that may not be him. It’s efficiency related to who he is as a pitcher. That’s what we’re going after. Obviously he’s done that in the past. He knows what he has to do to do that. And at the same time, he’s still working on pitches, trying to get better at things. It’s exciting. We appreciate and respect how good he wants to be. He’ll challenge himself and also challenge us on that, too, which is a good thing.”

The Pirates signed Skenes to a draft-record $9.2 million bonus last July after he led LSU to the College World Series championship, going 13-2 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.75 WHIP, 209 strikeouts against 20 walks in 122 2/3 innings over 19 starts.

Skenes started his college career at the U.S. Air Force Academy, where he was a catcher and pitcher. He won the John Olerud Award as the nation’s top two-way player in 2022, going 10-3 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.17 WHIP and 96 strikeouts against 30 walks while batting .314 with a 1.046 OPS, 10 doubles, 13 home runs and 38 RBIs in 52 games.

The Pirates limited his workload last summer by having him pitch 6 2/3 innings over five starts across three minor league levels, starting in the Florida Complex League, then moving to Low-A Bradenton before finishing at Double-A Altoona.

Skenes made only two appearances in Grapefruit League games in spring training, allowing one run on three hits while striking out three without a walk. He shined in his start against the Baltimore Orioles in the Spring Breakout prospect showcase, striking out Jackson Holliday, the 2022 No. 1 overall pick and baseball’s top prospect.

After relying primarily on his four-seamer and slider while serving as the Friday night starter for LSU, the Pirates wanted Skenes to build up his pitch count and develop a routine between starts in the minors. Skenes impressed teammates at Indianapolis with his combination of preparation and talent.

“He’s the definition of a workhorse,” said Pirates reliever Kyle Nicolas, who spent most of April at Indianapolis. “He’s in there as early as you can be in there. He knows what he needs to do every day to make sure he’s ready to pitch on whatever day he’s throwing. He’s an impressive worker. It’s not very normal for a guy coming out of college to have an identity like he does and have the routine that he has.

“He throws 101, and he can pretty much throw it where he wants,” Nicolas added. “It’s a controlled 100. He has good pitchability. He throws all his pitches competitively, throws them for strikes and knows how to work around a lineup. He’s got the tools, and he’s got the mindset and preparation already down. I’m sure that has a lot to do with how he was able to make that transition from college to Triple-A.”

Skenes gradually increased his pitch count this season from the mid-40s in his first two starts to 75 in his sixth, when he had seven strikeouts in a season-high six innings against Buffalo. He posted an 0.99 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 27 1/3 innings over seven starts in Triple-A. He has allowed four runs (three earned) on 17 hits, including one home run, while recording 46 strikeouts against eight walks and holding hitters to a .175 batting average.

The 6-foot-6, 250-pound Skenes regularly tops 100 mph and has touched 102 on his four-seam fastball, which he mixes with a hard-breaking slider, changeup, curveball and a new “splinker,” a hybrid between a splitter and a sinker that fellow rookie right-hander Jared Jones called “gross.”

“That’s one of those pitches where you watch, and you’re like, ‘I don’t understand how anybody ever hits that,’” said Jonathan Mayo, a Squirrel Hill-based reporter who covers baseball’s top prospects for MLB Pipeline. “It’s kind of stupid. I’ve got to get ready for 101 and here comes something that looks exactly the same but it’s 96 and drops off the table. I don’t see him perfecting that but feeling comfortable and making it as viable of a weapon in his arsenal that it’s already become is a big reason why he’s spent the time in Triple-A that he has. Could he have been straight to the big leagues? Sure, but I think they felt that this was a laboratory situation where he could work on fine-tuning those things. But, in terms of dominance and speed to the big leagues, it is fairly unparalleled.”