Pitt’s last six games prior to the ACC Tournament will go a long way in determining whether Jeff Capel’s second team will be labeled a success or failure.
If the Panthers (15-10, 6-8) win four, that puts them on the threshold of 20 victories, a milestone they have reached twice since joining the ACC in 2013.
A losing record over those six games almost guarantees Pitt will not receive even an NIT invitation, barring a run in the conference tournament.
The test begins Saturday in Blacksburg, Va., against a Virginia Tech team with issues Pitt hasn’t had to endure.
Pitt has not lost more than two in a row this season, but Virginia Tech (14-10, 5-8) drags a five-game losing streak into Cassell Coliseum for a 6 p.m. tipoff.
The Hokies have been streaky under first-year coach Mike Young, who replaced Buzz Williams, who is 11-12 at Texas A&M. Virginia Tech opened the season by winning six games and losing the next three. Then, they were 7-1 followed by 1-6.
Pitt, which is 1-5 in ACC road games, might be catching Virginia Tech at the wrong time.
The Hokies have been off all week while Pitt played Wednesday night. In the game last Saturday, Virginia Tech freshman Landers Nolley scored 29 points with 11 rebounds, in a 77-73 overtime loss to Boston College. It was his 22nd game with a double-digit scoring total.
Here are three other issues to ponder before tipoff:
1. Rebounding after loss
The Panthers are 7-2 in the game after a loss, a tribute to how the players don’t let losses linger.
After the loss to Clemson, Capel mentioned that tendency among his players, something he has had trouble doing as a player and coach.
He predicted he probably wouldn’t sleep well after the loss.
The problem is Pitt has not carried momentum from a victory into the next game. Pitt is 1-5 after winning a conference game.
Capel said his players didn’t have a good week of practice after defeating Georgia Tech last Saturday. A 20-point loss to Clemson followed.
2. Johnson, McGowens need to make shots
Sophomore guards Xavier Johnson and Trey McGowens were first and third in scoring on the team last season, averaging 15.5 and 11.6 points, respectively.
This season, McGowens is first (12.6) and Johnson third (11.8), with freshman Justin Champagnie in the middle (12.5). Junior Ryan Murphy is fourth (9.6) and sophomore Au’Diese Toney (8.7) fifth.
Although it’s good Pitt’s five leading scorers will have eligibility next season, McGowens and Johnson need to improve their shooting accuracy.
Since McGowens scored 24 in the second Louisville game, he shot only 27.6% (24 of 87) from the field in the next eight games. Johnson, who is fifth in the ACC with 5.2 assists per game, had 20 points in the second North Carolina game, but is slumping at 27.8% (22 for 79) since.
Zone defenses can create problems for Pitt. Johnson and McGowens like to slash to the hoop, but a good zone with long, athletic players often closes lanes and invites poor or hurried shots.
Both players have shown ability to shoot over the zone, but McGowens has found the net from beyond the 3-point arc only 29.4 percent of the time this season (more than 3 percent off last year’s rate). Johnson has missed 17 of his past 21.
3. Free throws count, too
Yes, they are only good for a point at a time, but they added up last season for the two guards.
Johnson and McGowens are shooting at similar rates, making about three-fourths of their free throws. But Johnson (83 of 111) attempted 209 last season; McGowens (82 of 110) 165.
An answer might be to continue to drive aggressively, go to the line more often and get opponents in foul trouble.
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