Pitt Take 5: Free throws can make difference but don't tell the whole story

Pitt’s recent defeats have been, oddly, encouraging.

But the goal is to win, and the Panthers have been deficient in that area for most of this season.

(The record is 69-98 since Jamie Dixon left, but that’s not the point here.)

There’s hope for the Panthers (5-9, 0-3 ACC) in the form of plenty of opportunity in the upcoming weeks. Assuming the Virginia Tech postponement will be rescheduled, there are 17 conference games remaining before the ACC Tournament.

Plus, Pitt’s average margin of defeat since late November is one two-point basket. Players are thoroughly engaged and playing harder than their 2020-21 predecessors.

Let’s examine what has happened and what may occur in the future, starting at 4 p.m. Saturday against Boston College at Petersen Events Center:

1. Close, but …

When a team loses three one-point decisions, and then you check the ACC stats and discover it is last in free-throw shooting percentage, a red flag arises.

Pitt has converted only 66.6% of its free throws (217 of 326). That’s 281st of 350 Division I schools.

The percentage is, actually, better in Pitt’s three one-point losses (71.6%), but there have been some crucial misses in those games.

• Center John Hugley, who leads the team in attempts (96) and makes (68) from the foul line, was a beast against Minnesota, with 25 points and 14 rebounds. But he was 6 of 11 from the foul line.

• At Virginia, Pitt was 6 for 6 in the first half, 6 for 10 in the second.

• Femi Odukale has improved his percentage from 49.3 last season to 62.5. But he missed a free throw with 34.3 seconds left in a 68-67 loss to Notre Dame that would have given Pitt a two-point lead. Before that miss, he made five of six.

The point: Pitt is close to turning those gut-punch losses into victories.

The greater point: Free-throw shooting is only part of the problem. Pitt is also last in the ACC in field-goal percentage (41.2%).

2. On the other hand …

Not everyone struggles from the free-throw line. Jamarius Burton is 32 for 36 (88.9%, third in the ACC), and Mouhamadou Gueye is 20 for 25 (80%).

Give coach Jeff Capel credit for finding two productive players in the NCAA transfer portal.

3. Here’s why it matters

Pitt shoots a lot of free throws, an average of 23.2 per game. The Panthers lead the NCAA in free-throw rate (46%). Only six other schools are above 40%.

Free-throw rate is the ratio of free-throw attempts (for Pitt 326, second in the ACC) to field-goal attempts (709, tied for 13th with Virginia).

4. The new BC

In the midst of losing 16 of 20 games last season, Boston College fired coach Jim Christian after nearly seven seasons at Chestnut Hill. Earl Grant, formerly of College of Charleston, has lifted the Eagles to a respectable 6-6 record (1-1 in the ACC).

The Eagles were 6-3 before losing their past three games — 79-68 to Saint Louis, 61-57 to Albany and 91-65 to North Carolina at home last Sunday.

But between final exams and covid postponements, the Tar Heels game was BC’s first since Dec. 13. Before that, the Eagles defeated Notre Dame, 73-57, but lost twice to Rhode Island. BC is 0-3 against the Atlantic 10.

Bet the under Saturday: BC is 13th in the points per game (67.1) and Pitt is last (61.9).

5. Looking ahead

A week into the new year, Capel isn’t thinking about 2023, but here’s reminding him that there’s potential for Pitt to have lots of experience in the backcourt next season.

Three senior guards — Burton, Nike Sibande and Onyebuchi Ezeakudo — will have eligibility for the 2022-23 season. Forward Dan Oladapo also can return.

Assuming Sibande recovers from his knee injury and everyone else returns (no guarantees for any team these days), Pitt will have a wealth of depth at the guard position, including Burton, Odukale, Ezeakudo and Ithiel Horton.