Pitt Take 5: Stakes high for Panthers in their final 3 regular-season games

Jeff Capel has said repeatedly that the NCAA Net rankings, Associated Press Top 25 and the many versions of bracketology that pop up on the internet do not interest him.

But don’t let him fool you. Pitt’s coach knows what’s at stake over the final three games of the regular season, starting Saturday against Syracuse (16-12, 9-8 ACC) at sold-out Petersen Events Center.

Pitt (20-8, 13-4) can lock down a double bye in the ACC Tournament if Virginia Tech beats Duke and the Panthers defeat Syracuse. The double bye matters because Pitt would be off for two days — March 7 and 8 — while seven games are played in the Greensboro (N.C.) Coliseum.

That’s less wear on the players, who will have played 31 games before the tournament. Jamarius Burton’s knee could use the break.

Also, Pitt can win the ACC regular-season championship for the first time if it conquers the difficult task of winning each of its three remaining games. Pitt will end the regular season with trips to Notre Dame on Wednesday and first-place Miami on March 4.

Capel has been careful not to mention either possibility to his players, but he knows and they know.

“We haven’t talked about it, but we all know it. I’m pretty sure they’ve talked about it (among themselves),” Capel said.

Added senior point guard Nelly Cummings: “We’re in a great position for everything we’ve ever wanted. If we continue to handle things day by day, we’re going to be in a great position come March 4.”

Here are five thoughts to ponder leading up to Saturday’s 5 p.m. tipoff.

1. Mintz on a roll

Syracuse lost its past two games to Duke (at home) and Clemson by 22- and 18-point margins. But guard Judah Mintz continues to astonish in his freshman season.

Mintz, who was verbally committed to Pitt for more than five months in 2021, is averaging 18.7 points and shooting 51.9% in the past six games while averaging 34.6 minutes per game.

“Judah’s not a freshman anymore,” Capel said.

When he was rested briefly Wednesday night at Clemson, ACC Network announcer Dan Bonner remarked, “Mintz is just exhausted. He’s been playing unbelievably hard.”

Mintz is not a great 3-point shooter (29.1%, 16 of 55), but he’s made his past six in a row.

“That’s a little scary,” Capel said. “That’s something you can kind of slack off him a little bit (previously). Now, with the way he shot the ball, you have to get up to him a little bit more, and that opens up where he’s also terrific as a driver.”

Said Clemson coach Brad Brownell: “Dynamic player. Man, is he athletic, quick. He gets to his spots on the floor. Because of (guard) Joe Girard, there’s even more space because you’re worried about him as well. Those two guys play very well together.”

2. Movie night at the Pete

After Pitt defeated Georgia Tech on Tuesday, Capel stuck around for late-night theatre, watching that game and his encounter with Syracuse on Dec. 20. Pitt won that one, too, 84-82, but not before blowing most of an 18-point lead in the final 13 minutes.

Jeff Capel, looking back at and forward to Syracuse. pic.twitter.com/KMSODVfPLJ

— Jerry DiPaola (@JDiPaola_Trib) February 23, 2023

“I looked at what we did early that enabled us to get that lead,” he said. “I looked at how we defended early. When we had the lead, I thought we let up a little bit. We had some opportunities that maybe could have broken them when we had some wide-open 3s that we missed.”

How did Pitt almost lose the game? Look no further than Syracuse’s 15 offensive rebounds and Pitt’s 16 turnovers.

“When we didn’t turn it over, we didn’t miss a lot of shots,” Capel said. “We have to do a much better job of valuing the basketball, though. We played not to lose, and they were super aggressive. Our turnovers got them easy baskets, and they hit some really tough shots.”

3. Tough guy

Burton is one of only four players in the nation averaging at least 15.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4 assists per game. His slash line is 15.6/4.7/4.3. And he’s doing it while being limited in practice because of inflammation in his knee.

“That’s maybe inhibited him some,” Capel said. “This time of year, everyone’s banged up. Everyone’s sore. Everyone’s hurting in some capacity. But he’ll be able to push through it.”

4. Catching up with coach K

Capel said he is “absolutely” not surprised that his former coach, Mike Krzyzewski, said this week he doesn’t miss coaching.

“I think he’s squeezed everything out,” Capel said. “I think he misses the game. He misses the relationships. But I don’t think he misses all the B.S. that comes along with the job now. It’s a very different job.

“When you’ve accomplished in your 70s (Krzyzewski is 76), I don’t see how you’re still doing this. That’s just me, though. I’m 48. There’s no way when I’m that age that I’m doing this. No.”

Krzyzewski has kept busy making speeches and spending time with his grandchildren.

“I’m happy for him. I talked to him (Wednesday),” Capel said. “He’s probably just as busy now and he’s doing things that he enjoys. Speeches, going to see his grandkids play. I think that’s what he and Mrs. K deserve.”

5. Calling Jamie Dixon

When Capel was coaching Oklahoma in the 2009 NCAA Tournament, the Sooners reached the Sweet 16 where they were joined by the schools that will be represented at the Pete on Saturday. Same coach (Jim Boeheim) for Syracuse; Jamie Dixon for Pitt.

Oklahoma eliminated Syracuse, 84-71, to advance to the Elite 8, where the Sooners lost to eventual national champion North Carolina. While preparing for the Orange, Capel watched a Pitt/Syracuse game from that season, a 78-60 Panthers victory at the Pete. Between 2004-11, Dixon defeated Boeheim nine of the 11 times they met.

“Just trying to figure out ways to play against the (Syracuse 2-3) zone,” Capel said. “It always seemed like Jamie Dixon did a good job against the zone.”

Pitt reached the Elite 8 that season but was knocked out by Villanova.