Power outage: Pirates try to pinpoint problem of why home runs are hard to hit at PNC Park

As much as Andrew McCutchen would have loved for his historic home run to pass Roberto Clemente for third place in Pittsburgh Pirates history to be a no-doubter, his initial reaction was filled with fear.

The 38-year-old designated hitter described in detail how he watched the ball hit at a 103.5-mph exit velocity sail 405 feet while looking for a ricochet and hoping that it wouldn’t be caught at the warning track of the North Side Notch in left-center field at PNC Park.

“I was like, ‘That’s probably not going out.’ Ball hasn’t been too fair for us here,” McCutchen said. “The whole time I was more in disbelief that the ball went out than anything because I mean, we’ve hit some balls, and I have myself here, that it just seems like the ball just doesn’t go. So, maybe it’s a new batch of baseballs, but it was more that, like, ‘Oh. It got out.’”

That explains McCutchen’s deadpan reaction to his 241st home run in a Pirates uniform — but first at home this season — in an on-field postgame interview with SportsNet Pittsburgh:

“I didn’t think I was ever hitting a home run at PNC Park. It was a great feeling to hit one at home.”

Not that he hadn’t been trying. On Sunday, McCutchen was stunned to see a ball he barreled at a 103.5-mph exit velocity and 28-degree launch angle travel 394 feet to right-center for a flyout in the third inning against the Philadelphia Phillies.

“That ball has to go,” McCutchen told TribLive. “That ball doesn’t go, guess what? The expected numbers are still there, but the real numbers aren’t there.”

That had McCutchen fuming that his hard hits weren’t being rewarded. It’s a sentiment shared by several of his teammates in the Pirates clubhouse, and one that had the five-time All-Star and 2013 National League MVP outspoken in his criticisms of MLB baseballs.

“Hopefully, the ball performs a little better at PNC Park and maybe those expected numbers will catch up a little quicker,” McCutchen told TribLive. “Those balls are underperforming very badly, here specifically at PNC Park … because they’re manipulated, and I realized that and I see that. The balls have to be manipulated for them to perform the way they’re performing. I don’t know how or why. It’s going to be bad for somebody and good for somebody else. Right now, it’s bad for the position player. There’s more drag on baseballs this year.

“The balls are underperforming, and I realize that. I’ve got three decades in this game, under two commissioners. I know what a ball feels like when I hit it. This is the worst it’s ever performed. I realize that and feel that myself.”

It’s felt team-wide, as their advanced metrics are alarming: Their expected batting average (.245) is 16 points higher than the actual, and expected slugging percentage (.404) is 61 points higher than the actual. That helps explain why the Pirates rank 28th out of 30 MLB teams in OPS and 29th in home runs, RBIs and slugging percentage this season.

It didn’t help that they tied a major-league record last month with 26 consecutive games without scoring more than four runs, putting more pressure on the hitters to provide power at the plate.

“It doesn’t surprise me that the team has started off the way it’s started off offensively because we’re not being rewarded for the balls that we do hit well,” McCutchen said. “The expected numbers are going to be here. The real numbers are going to be here. Until those balls start performing a little bit better, that’s going to continue to happen — at least at PNC Park. Hopefully, that changes. Will it? Who knows? But I’ll know right when I hit a ball and it goes out. I’ll say, ‘It did what it’s supposed to’ or you’ll see me throw my hands up, like, ‘It’s doing what it’s doing.’”

Blaming the inconsistency of the baseballs is a common complaint since MLB bought Rawlings from Merrell Brands for $395 million in 2018, the same year the Supreme Court opened the door for legalized gambling. MLB has partnerships with FanDuel and BetMGM, which led players to privately wonder whether the Pirates are playing with balls designed to keep their runs down for those betting the over.

But the PNC Park dimensions also are demanding for right-handed hitters, with a left-center power alley to 410 feet and the 21-foot Clemente Wall in right field.

“Nobody can figure it out,” Pirates shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa said. “I think it’s been frustrating for our team because we get crushed all the time about not scoring runs or whatnot. Early in the year that was true. Recently, I feel like we’ve been swinging the bats well and not getting rewarded for it. It could be a lot of different things. I really don’t know.”

Neither does two-time All-Star outfielder Bryan Reynolds, whose metrics make him appear to be one of the game’s unluckiest hitters this season. His expected batting average (.273) is 40 points higher than the actual, his expected slugging percentage (.571) is 195 points higher and his wOBA (.367) — which measures all outcomes — is 62 points higher.

“It’s just crap. I’ve hit five balls here that should’ve been homers that were just cans of (crap),” Reynolds said. “My expected numbers are pretty good, like really good, and my actual numbers are not. I guess it’s good to have a little bit of red on your (Baseball) Savant page. Obviously, you’d want the expected numbers to line up with the actual numbers.

“I don’t know what it is, but I’ve got eight homers whereas I feel like I should have 14. And I don’t. And I don’t even have hits on ones that should’ve been homers. I’ve hit a bunch of balls that should’ve been home runs that were just routine fly balls.”

That so demoralized Kiner-Falefa after being acquired from Toronto at the trade deadline last July that he adjusted his approach. The breaking point came last Aug. 26 against the Chicago Cubs, when he hit a 403-foot shot to the Notch at a 102.3-mph exit velocity and 31-degree launch angle, only to see left fielder Ian Happ make a sliding catch on the warning track and into the bullpen fence.

“After that, my numbers took a huge hit. I was like, if my best bullet’s not getting out there, I didn’t know what to do,” said Kiner-Falefa, who batted .244/.262/.294 over the final 28 games of the 2024 season. “I started changing my swing and trying different things. My second half was dreadful. My adjustment this year is that I know it’s a big field, and I’m not going to hit a ton of home runs, which sucks because that’s what you get paid for, so I’m finding different ways to be valuable and it’s helping me out. As a team, to score runs it’s frustrating because guys are putting a lot of work in and they’re not getting the results. You swing yourself into a rabbit hole, and you don’t really know how to get power at this point of the year.”

It got to where Kiner-Falefa stopped taking outdoor batting practice at PNC Park, preferring to get his swings in the batting cage because of how often balls hit to left fell short of the fence.

“You hit a ball well, it goes to the warning track, you look up and it says 105 and it’s not a home run?” Kiner-Falefa said. “It’s better to just hit inside and not deal with that.”

Pirates hitting coach Matt Hague called it a “constant battle” to keep hitters focused and prevent them from getting discouraged when they aren’t rewarded for hard contact. Pirates manager Don Kelly is hoping they are turning the tide, pointing to the recent surge of homers by catcher Henry Davis and even third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, as well as Oneil Cruz, Reynolds and, now, McCutchen.

“Guys are hitting the ball hard,” Kelly said. “Every stadium is unique when you’re talking about the wind and stuff — and we’ve got the river — (so) it’s hard to say exactly what balls should get out, shouldn’t get out. There’s a lot of different data that will come out on that. I think for us, it’s just continuing when a guy does hit the ball hard, reward that from our conversations, understanding that it’s frustrating as a player when you go up and your best ball isn’t good enough.”